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Sunday, January 20, 2013

Championship Sunday January 20, 2012 sports picks

NFL
SF -3.5 (1.5u) - Atlanta entered the brackets as a false #1 seed, confirmed by their second half melt down, SF rated #3 vs Falcon's #25 on Sagarin's SoS rating, better niner D, unique offensive threat with Kaep altho still prone to mistakes, better coach, visiting the dome which has lost it's impregnable luster this year, and being battle tested on the Road (thinking of the Patriot game)...i'm siding with the niners.

Atlanta can definitely win. …and if you like the Falcons to win...the stats say you’re basically taking the team with the lesser offense, the lesser defense--- witha rush defense that ranked #28 in yards allowed per carry (4.8) and #24 in rushing TD’s allowed (16) and that was against a very easy schedule…and you’re asking them to stop Gore inside and Kaep on the outside, as well as V.Davis over the middle..... hmmm a tall order.

If you're going with Atlanta, I see you hoping to catch lucky breaks, maybe with an INT or fumble or maybe poor decisions from a relatively inexperienced QB in front of a loud crowd (even tho he just beat my 'cherry picked' game of New England on the road a few weeks ago!). It's doable alright, but i think the Poker Gods are against you...anyway GL 

SF/ATL OVER 48
NE -8 (1.5units) - greater QB Passing Rating Differential
BAL/NE OVER 51.5

NCAAB 27-32-0 (-1.93u)
Rider +3 (1u)

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