SEPT 27, 2009 NFL FREE PICKS

St. Louis +7 The Rams are lousy this year and are stinking up the league. The public is pounding the Pack. So why do i like the Rams in this spot (besides being a home dog)? I don't think the Rams are as bad as people think, and while they may lose at home, they will cover.

Tampa Bay +7
The home dogs will be out in force Sunday. The g-men have some injury issues and the Bucs are in desperation mode. A loss will make the rest of their season irrelevant. The high number and high public backing of the g-men makes me want to pick the Buccs to win, or at least cover.

Cleveland +13.5
"LOOK AHEAD ALERT", the ravens are looking to next week's game with the Patriots. No one is taking the Browns seriously. There's no doubt the Ravens are the better team, but can they cover in a 'let down' and 'look ahead' game. Wait to kickoff to see if you can get the key number 14, as the public pounds the favorite.

San Francisco +7 **updated number from Leroy's**
The Niners are still not getting respect, which is good for the early season bettors. Holding Peterson to 3 yards the last time they met is still a bad taste in AP's mouth. What scares me is his quote that this game will be his redemption. The sharps are hoping the squares will hop on the Favre bandwagon, wait to bet just before kickoff to see if the key number turns 7.

Buffalo +6
Another "wait till kickoff bet" to see if the squares drive up the points for the home dogs. The Saint train is coming to town with the Brees high flying offense. I also like the Over but will wait to see what the weather is doing Sunday. For now this is just too many points for the home dog that nearly beat the Pats on the road.

Miami +6
After being debacled by the dreadful two minute offense last week, i swore not to bet the Fins again.....so here i am taking them when they've become a 'fade bet" this season? The Bolts and LT are banged up and look like a typical Norv Turner disorganized team. Without the injured Jamal Williams, how can they slow the Fin wildcats? So this is more of an anti-bolt bet rather than a pro-Fin bet.
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Oakland +2 - another home dog that i hate, especially with a QB that can't hit the broad side of a barn. The Broncos QB is not much better and they only beat the Bungholes on a fluke play and beat a lousy Brown team. Traveling to the west coast

OVER cowboys/panthers 46 - jumped on this now as it may get to 48 by kickoff. carolina's defense has looked horrific the first 2 weeks, and the boys will be amped to avenge the giants loss. carolina has the offensive weapons to put up several td's on an avg dallas defense. if im up big going into this game, i may add more. This may be the play of the week.

Leans for now:
TITANS +3 - jets have a big time letdown off the NE win, playing a desperate titans team
UNDER jets 37 - 2 excellent defenses. this total is great value at 37, any lower...stay away.
TEXANS -3.5 - the JAGS are a fade bet
UNDER vikings/49ers 40.5
seahawks +2
OVER saints 52.5 - buffalo's new no huddle offense is looking good while their defense is not keeping up, the weather is the only question mark.