WEEK 13- NFL PICKS DEC. 4 &6, 2009

YTD: 74-66 (-11.3 units)

DEN -4: Broncos are still playing for a playoff spot. The Chiefs can't even snap the long ball right. Score: Broncos 33-Chiefs 18 (5 units) **WINNER**

CIN -13: the rap on Cincy is that they play down to their competition. They do read the papers and are now at home. I see this as a statement game for the better team. I smell a blow-out of epic proportions. Score: Bengals 28-Lions 10 (4 units). LOSER

SF +1: the re-focused Niners are now playing the spread offense and have tossed the conservative "run-only" approach. The result is playing into the strength of Alex Smith and emphasizing the receiver weapons of Crabtree, Davis and Morgan. The Seahawks are already looking to next year. Score: Forty-niners 28-Seahawks 18 (3 units). LOSER

NO -7.5: the Saints are clearly the dominant team, and if the line reaches 9 or ten, i might have to go with the Skins. My only concern is Brees and company not taking this game seriously, especially after their showcase this past MNF. For now: Score Saints 28-Redskins 18 (2 units) **GAMEDAY SWITCH** since the line has moved to 10, i'm switching to the Skins +10 (2 units) **WINNER**

SD -13: this play is mainly against the inept Browns, even if they are DD home dogs. While the Bolts have to travel east, i'd be insane to bet the Browns. Score: Chargers 48-Browns 9 (3 units) LOSER

NYJ -1: The Bills are 3-21 ATS after playing the FINS since 1998, including this year's loss to the Browns 6-3....a weird stat. I'm not convinced that the trend will continue, i'm just saying....who am I to argue with fate? Score: Jets 24-Bills 18 (1 unit). **WINNER**

TEN +7: the Titans are a live dog and are on a roll, they usually play the Colts tough. This could be a let down game for Indy after clinching a playoff berth. You might want to consider a ML bet for this one: Titans 24-Colts 21 (2 units) LOSER

STL +9: the Bears are not dominant enough to be laying 9 points, even if it is vs. the lowly lambs. This play is mostly against the Bears rather than for the St. Louis. Score: Rams 28-Bears 21 (1 unit). **WINNER**

TB +6.5: Carolina has not been consistent enough to lay this many points, especially when Delhomme is back to his INT mode. Score: Panthers 21-Buccaneers 24 (2 units). LOSER

Leans
ATL +9: W
MIA +6.5 W
NYG +1.5 W

ps. i like Oregon State +10 and Washington +7 as live dogs Saturday.... i'm just sayin ***2 WINNERS***