WEEK 6, October 17, 2010 NFL PICKS

CLE +13.5 (2units)- LOSER
a lot of points for a rusty QB to lay in a divisional rivalry game. While the browns have noodle-arm McCoy at the helm, i'll side with the Browns who've been competitive in their games. The steeler defensive HOG index, Palamalu may win it for them SU, but i'll take the points. Myline was Pit by 6.5. Score: Browns 14- Steelers 21


ATL +3 (3units): LOSER
Mike Smith is 4-1 ATS coming off second-consecutive road games. Statfox Trend; teams coming off road victories of 1-3 points always struggle as home favorites. Score: Falcons 24-Eagles 17

BAL +3 - (1unit): PUSH
my line has them even, so i'll take the points. Their defensive HOG index is not that much better (14.7 vs 22), but the edge is still with the Ravens. Score: Ravens 24-Patriots 18.

KC +4.5 (2units): **WINNER**
Chiefs have fewer penalty yards, fewer turnovers, and twice as good defensive HOG index. My only misgiving is betting Cassell

SF -6.5 - (2units): **WINNER**
I flip flopped once already.  WHILE the whole niner team seems to be pressing to get a win, shooting themselves in the foot in the process, THEY ARE THE BETTER TEAM. It seems everyone and his mother's uncle are going against the 0-5 team, 58% anyway. The lines at -7 this Sat A.M. but i'll take it and the home team vs. cross-bay rival to cover. What sealed the deal on the switch was Jason Campbell being named QB

IND -3 (2units): **WINNER**
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS Away if total is 42.5 to 45. Washington wins have been against average teams, they've been beat in the stats, altho not the points. I doubt whether this formula will work vs. Manning & Co. They won't last in a shootout with Indy. Score: Colts 33-Redsins 21.

CHI -7 (1unit): LOSER
I'll go along with Seattle' poor road ATS record, especially outside of the lowly NFC West. I'll side with Julius Peppers and the Bears. Score: Bears 24-Seahawks 6
STL +9 (3units): i have the Bolts wining by 3, so i'll take the points.While San Diego may be the better team, St. Louis does play better at home while the Bolts seem to struggle on the road. So a team that lost to Kansas City, Seattle and Oakland is laying 9?? While the Rams were blown out by the Lions 44-6 last week, hence the big line. I'll take St. Louis at home with the pts. Score: Chargers 28-Rams 21

TB +4.5 (2units): LOSER
Bucs have fewer penalty yards than Saints, slightly fewer turnover (7-9), and better defensive HOG index numbers. Time of possession per game slightly favors the Saints but i'll take the points with a young/talented defense at home in division game.

JAC +3 (1unit) - home town team win on MNF, i like the UNDEr better.