YTD: 30-19-0 (+12.1 units)
Early posting this week: since i'll be away from the computer until Sat or Sun morning, i'll post tonite. The positive to this is that i'm going with my first hunches, the negative is that i won't have more time to analyze the stats and talk. First hunches are sometimes better since you don't 'overthink' the plays. Anyway, here goes:
MIN -9.5: another play against the lowly Rams. I smell another blow out of epic proportions. The scary thing is the DD home dog not to mention that everybody and his mother is on the Vikes…. Usually a good time to fade em… but Score: Vikings 27-Rams 3. (2 units)
DEN +3: DEN will win, nobody takes them seriously, the public is pounding the PATs; Denver's head coach was the offensive Coord. for NE, Denver has the momentum, Vegas would love more bets on the PATs, while NE isperceived to be the better team i like the Broncos in this spot: Score: Broncos 24-Patriots 18. (5 units)
SF -2.5: I don’t really understand the love for the Falcons, seems like a case of overrated vs. underated to me. This is a statement game for the niners. Nov 1st will be the better test of the SF defense vs. the Colts, for now, their D will carry them past Atlanta. Master motivator Singletary reminded the 49ers at halftime that Candlestick Park was their house and to play like it. The result was 28 points in the second half (i know it was against the hapless Rams), so i'll ride the train till the wheels fall off; score: 49ers 24-Falcons 13 (3 units)
SF/ATL UNDER (.5 units)
CAR -3.5: Fading the Redskins has been money this year. The Skins lost to the Lions, barely beat the hapless Rams, and last week almost lost to the tanking Bucs. Carolina is stinking up the league too, but at least they lost to quality teams, but coming off a bye, their only stumbling block has been Delhomme’s turnovers; since they’re playing at home they should win; score: Panthers 17-Redskins 6 (2 units)
CIN +9: The public is pounding the Ravens to the tune of 60%. I may wait till kickoff to see if the line moves up to 10. The Bengals like to play it close, whether its against the lowly Browns or the quality teams in the likes of the Steelers or Broncos, Cincy likes to make it interesting, so take the points; Score: Bengals 21-Ravens 18 (3 units)
IND -3.5: I’ll side with the public on this one, Peyton in prime time has been money while the Titans have tanked it for the season. Score: Colts 28-Titans 18 (2 units)
Leans:
NYG -15: keep an eye on Manning’s foot injury & weather, may make a play come gameday.
PHI -14.5: Score 38-0, may put some on gameday here too, but will monitor McNabb/Westbrook’s status this week and also line movement.. Under 14 will be a definite play on Philly.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Monday, October 5, 2009
MNF Oct. 5, 2009
YTD: 29-19 (+11.2 units)
MIN -4: The Pack O-line will be their downfall, although the Vikes won't dominate, they're on a roll right now. Don't risk alot on this one. Score: Vikings 27-Packers 21 (1 unit)
MIN -4: The Pack O-line will be their downfall, although the Vikes won't dominate, they're on a roll right now. Don't risk alot on this one. Score: Vikings 27-Packers 21 (1 unit)
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Oct. 4, 2009 NFL WEEKLY PICKS
YTD: 21-16 (0 UNITS)
From now on I’ll start rating the plays on a 1 to 5 unit scale. I should’ve started from day one, but for now the units will start at 0:
CIN -5.5: the Browns have tanked it for the season and the Bengals are on a roll. Derek Anderson will be an improvement and home dogs are usually scary, but I won’t fall for them like I did last week. Score: Bengals 16-Browns 6 (4 units)
BAL +2: I’d recommend ML bet on this one. Although the Pats and Brady are improving each week, he still looks banged up. With a newly found offense, the Ravens will win this one outright. If the line stays below a FG, the Ravens will be on a million teasers. Score: Ravens 27-Patriots 20 (3 units)
SD +6.5 or PIT: the Bolts will be in playoff revenge mode against a reeling Troyless Steeler team. In the power rankings, the Steelers and Bolts are 7 & 8 respectively, ie, almost even and yet San Diego gets the points. What scares me are the Bolt injuries. Wait til the line hits 7 or more for the BOLT bet. If the line stays at 6.5 or less, go with the Steelers. Score: Steelers 20-Chargers 14 (2 units)
SF -9/5: after a bad-beat close call game last year vs Arizona, the niners under Singletary came home and took their anger out on their next opponent 35 to 16. It was against none other than the Rams. Last week's bad beat against the Vikes will be redeemed by the same patsies of last year in another blow out. (I wish i was playing these on Leroy's 3-n-out, i'm 2-1 there) Score: 49ers 27-Rams 10 (4 units)
TB +9: the Skins haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game this year. They didn’t show up against an 0-19 team last week and barely beat a 0-13 team several weeks ago, and yet they’re laying 9 points? What-what? Both teams are lousy, but getting that many points, I’ll take the Buccs. Buccaneers 16 – Washington 10 (1 unit)
IND -10.5: Peyton will wreak havoc on the Seahawk secondary. West coast teams going east, Seneca Wallace at the helm, I smell a blow out of epic proportions. Colts 30 – Seahawks 10 (4 units)
DEN +3: everyone is saying the Bronco record is a fluke (including myself) but I think the real overrated team are the Boys. Their defense will be torched….how did Dallas earn the position as a 3 point favorite….beating the lousy Buccs, squeeking by the tanking Panthers, teams that are a combined 0-6, hmmm, the line may be backward here, go with the Broncs. Cowboys 14-Broncos 24 (5 units)
NYG -9: A huge mismatch game, the g-men should win this one and cover. If it wasn’t 3 road games in a row, I might try higher units but for now: Giants 31-Chiefs 3 (2 units)
DEN/DAL Under 42: (.5 units)
NO -7: The public is in love with Brees and the Saints, and for good reason, the high flying offense will outscore the good Jet defense. Jets14-Saints 34 (2 units)
OAK/HOU Over 42.5: (.5 units)
Try this little Money Line parlay for value:
Baltimore Ravens +110 ML (2 Units)
Denver Broncos +130 ML (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins +110 ML (2 Units)
From now on I’ll start rating the plays on a 1 to 5 unit scale. I should’ve started from day one, but for now the units will start at 0:
CIN -5.5: the Browns have tanked it for the season and the Bengals are on a roll. Derek Anderson will be an improvement and home dogs are usually scary, but I won’t fall for them like I did last week. Score: Bengals 16-Browns 6 (4 units)
BAL +2: I’d recommend ML bet on this one. Although the Pats and Brady are improving each week, he still looks banged up. With a newly found offense, the Ravens will win this one outright. If the line stays below a FG, the Ravens will be on a million teasers. Score: Ravens 27-Patriots 20 (3 units)
SD +6.5 or PIT: the Bolts will be in playoff revenge mode against a reeling Troyless Steeler team. In the power rankings, the Steelers and Bolts are 7 & 8 respectively, ie, almost even and yet San Diego gets the points. What scares me are the Bolt injuries. Wait til the line hits 7 or more for the BOLT bet. If the line stays at 6.5 or less, go with the Steelers. Score: Steelers 20-Chargers 14 (2 units)
SF -9/5: after a bad-beat close call game last year vs Arizona, the niners under Singletary came home and took their anger out on their next opponent 35 to 16. It was against none other than the Rams. Last week's bad beat against the Vikes will be redeemed by the same patsies of last year in another blow out. (I wish i was playing these on Leroy's 3-n-out, i'm 2-1 there) Score: 49ers 27-Rams 10 (4 units)
TB +9: the Skins haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game this year. They didn’t show up against an 0-19 team last week and barely beat a 0-13 team several weeks ago, and yet they’re laying 9 points? What-what? Both teams are lousy, but getting that many points, I’ll take the Buccs. Buccaneers 16 – Washington 10 (1 unit)
IND -10.5: Peyton will wreak havoc on the Seahawk secondary. West coast teams going east, Seneca Wallace at the helm, I smell a blow out of epic proportions. Colts 30 – Seahawks 10 (4 units)
DEN +3: everyone is saying the Bronco record is a fluke (including myself) but I think the real overrated team are the Boys. Their defense will be torched….how did Dallas earn the position as a 3 point favorite….beating the lousy Buccs, squeeking by the tanking Panthers, teams that are a combined 0-6, hmmm, the line may be backward here, go with the Broncs. Cowboys 14-Broncos 24 (5 units)
NYG -9: A huge mismatch game, the g-men should win this one and cover. If it wasn’t 3 road games in a row, I might try higher units but for now: Giants 31-Chiefs 3 (2 units)
DEN/DAL Under 42: (.5 units)
NO -7: The public is in love with Brees and the Saints, and for good reason, the high flying offense will outscore the good Jet defense. Jets14-Saints 34 (2 units)
OAK/HOU Over 42.5: (.5 units)
Try this little Money Line parlay for value:
Baltimore Ravens +110 ML (2 Units)
Denver Broncos +130 ML (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins +110 ML (2 Units)
Monday, September 28, 2009
MNF Sept 28, 2009 NFL PICKS
Ouch!, yesterday hurt bad. The live dogs were brutally killed. Tonite, we need to make a comeback.
Carolina +9 - Carolina lost again last week but was competitive. They out gained Atlanta 6.6yppl to 5.8yppl, out rushing Atlanta 5.8ypr to 4.1ypr. They were out passed 8.1yps to 7.0yps. Everything is pointing to take a shot at Carolina with the points. The TWO issues I have is, the public is also pounding on this team at 91% as we speak and i don't trust Jake. but on the other hand, i trust Romo less. Barber is out (or at least hurt) and the Panthers have a good running tandem so i'll go with the UNDER 48.
Carolina +9 - Carolina lost again last week but was competitive. They out gained Atlanta 6.6yppl to 5.8yppl, out rushing Atlanta 5.8ypr to 4.1ypr. They were out passed 8.1yps to 7.0yps. Everything is pointing to take a shot at Carolina with the points. The TWO issues I have is, the public is also pounding on this team at 91% as we speak and i don't trust Jake. but on the other hand, i trust Romo less. Barber is out (or at least hurt) and the Panthers have a good running tandem so i'll go with the UNDER 48.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
ADDEd Games Sept. 27, 2009 NFL PICKS
ATL +4 - Brady's banged up, the Pat D is not what it used to be and Matt Ryan's on a roll.
HOU -4: The Jags are going no where fast, the Texans have owned the Jags lately.
TEN +3 - a good team that's desperate should win in this spot.
ARI -2.5 - Peyton is good in prime time, but the Colts will not be able to keep up with the Cardinal WRs.
HOU -4: The Jags are going no where fast, the Texans have owned the Jags lately.
TEN +3 - a good team that's desperate should win in this spot.
ARI -2.5 - Peyton is good in prime time, but the Colts will not be able to keep up with the Cardinal WRs.
SEPT 27, 2009 NFL FREE PICKS
St. Louis +7 The Rams are lousy this year and are stinking up the league. The public is pounding the Pack. So why do i like the Rams in this spot (besides being a home dog)? I don't think the Rams are as bad as people think, and while they may lose at home, they will cover.
Tampa Bay +7
The home dogs will be out in force Sunday. The g-men have some injury issues and the Bucs are in desperation mode. A loss will make the rest of their season irrelevant. The high number and high public backing of the g-men makes me want to pick the Buccs to win, or at least cover.
Cleveland +13.5
"LOOK AHEAD ALERT", the ravens are looking to next week's game with the Patriots. No one is taking the Browns seriously. There's no doubt the Ravens are the better team, but can they cover in a 'let down' and 'look ahead' game. Wait to kickoff to see if you can get the key number 14, as the public pounds the favorite.
San Francisco +7 **updated number from Leroy's**
The Niners are still not getting respect, which is good for the early season bettors. Holding Peterson to 3 yards the last time they met is still a bad taste in AP's mouth. What scares me is his quote that this game will be his redemption. The sharps are hoping the squares will hop on the Favre bandwagon, wait to bet just before kickoff to see if the key number turns 7.
Buffalo +6
Another "wait till kickoff bet" to see if the squares drive up the points for the home dogs. The Saint train is coming to town with the Brees high flying offense. I also like the Over but will wait to see what the weather is doing Sunday. For now this is just too many points for the home dog that nearly beat the Pats on the road.
Miami +6
After being debacled by the dreadful two minute offense last week, i swore not to bet the Fins again.....so here i am taking them when they've become a 'fade bet" this season? The Bolts and LT are banged up and look like a typical Norv Turner disorganized team. Without the injured Jamal Williams, how can they slow the Fin wildcats? So this is more of an anti-bolt bet rather than a pro-Fin bet.
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Oakland +2 - another home dog that i hate, especially with a QB that can't hit the broad side of a barn. The Broncos QB is not much better and they only beat the Bungholes on a fluke play and beat a lousy Brown team. Traveling to the west coast
OVER cowboys/panthers 46 - jumped on this now as it may get to 48 by kickoff. carolina's defense has looked horrific the first 2 weeks, and the boys will be amped to avenge the giants loss. carolina has the offensive weapons to put up several td's on an avg dallas defense. if im up big going into this game, i may add more. This may be the play of the week.
Leans for now:
TITANS +3 - jets have a big time letdown off the NE win, playing a desperate titans team
UNDER jets 37 - 2 excellent defenses. this total is great value at 37, any lower...stay away.
TEXANS -3.5 - the JAGS are a fade bet
UNDER vikings/49ers 40.5
seahawks +2
OVER saints 52.5 - buffalo's new no huddle offense is looking good while their defense is not keeping up, the weather is the only question mark.
Tampa Bay +7
The home dogs will be out in force Sunday. The g-men have some injury issues and the Bucs are in desperation mode. A loss will make the rest of their season irrelevant. The high number and high public backing of the g-men makes me want to pick the Buccs to win, or at least cover.
Cleveland +13.5
"LOOK AHEAD ALERT", the ravens are looking to next week's game with the Patriots. No one is taking the Browns seriously. There's no doubt the Ravens are the better team, but can they cover in a 'let down' and 'look ahead' game. Wait to kickoff to see if you can get the key number 14, as the public pounds the favorite.
San Francisco +7 **updated number from Leroy's**
The Niners are still not getting respect, which is good for the early season bettors. Holding Peterson to 3 yards the last time they met is still a bad taste in AP's mouth. What scares me is his quote that this game will be his redemption. The sharps are hoping the squares will hop on the Favre bandwagon, wait to bet just before kickoff to see if the key number turns 7.
Buffalo +6
Another "wait till kickoff bet" to see if the squares drive up the points for the home dogs. The Saint train is coming to town with the Brees high flying offense. I also like the Over but will wait to see what the weather is doing Sunday. For now this is just too many points for the home dog that nearly beat the Pats on the road.
Miami +6
After being debacled by the dreadful two minute offense last week, i swore not to bet the Fins again.....so here i am taking them when they've become a 'fade bet" this season? The Bolts and LT are banged up and look like a typical Norv Turner disorganized team. Without the injured Jamal Williams, how can they slow the Fin wildcats? So this is more of an anti-bolt bet rather than a pro-Fin bet.
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Oakland +2 - another home dog that i hate, especially with a QB that can't hit the broad side of a barn. The Broncos QB is not much better and they only beat the Bungholes on a fluke play and beat a lousy Brown team. Traveling to the west coast
OVER cowboys/panthers 46 - jumped on this now as it may get to 48 by kickoff. carolina's defense has looked horrific the first 2 weeks, and the boys will be amped to avenge the giants loss. carolina has the offensive weapons to put up several td's on an avg dallas defense. if im up big going into this game, i may add more. This may be the play of the week.
Leans for now:
TITANS +3 - jets have a big time letdown off the NE win, playing a desperate titans team
UNDER jets 37 - 2 excellent defenses. this total is great value at 37, any lower...stay away.
TEXANS -3.5 - the JAGS are a fade bet
UNDER vikings/49ers 40.5
seahawks +2
OVER saints 52.5 - buffalo's new no huddle offense is looking good while their defense is not keeping up, the weather is the only question mark.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Added Games Sept. 20, 2009
TB +4.5: The public is pounding the Bills and they ARE the better team, but with the emotional loss against the Pats, the Bills will most likely be flat this week. Will Trent be finding more receivers downfield like TO is wanting?
CHI +3: without Troy, the Steeler D is not all that imposing, i like home dogs.
MIA +3 - The Underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams,another home dog. I like Manning, but his Sept. record is not all that great.
NYg +3 - I like the g-men to open the new stadium in style, with an outright win. Sorry, no reason, but i don't like the boys in general.
Added Play: MIA ML +150 - expect a poor showing from Colt Offense and an amped up crowd for home MNF.
CHI +3: without Troy, the Steeler D is not all that imposing, i like home dogs.
MIA +3 - The Underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams,another home dog. I like Manning, but his Sept. record is not all that great.
NYg +3 - I like the g-men to open the new stadium in style, with an outright win. Sorry, no reason, but i don't like the boys in general.
Added Play: MIA ML +150 - expect a poor showing from Colt Offense and an amped up crowd for home MNF.
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