Oct. 4, 2009 NFL WEEKLY PICKS

YTD: 21-16 (0 UNITS)

From now on I’ll start rating the plays on a 1 to 5 unit scale. I should’ve started from day one, but for now the units will start at 0:

CIN -5.5: the Browns have tanked it for the season and the Bengals are on a roll. Derek Anderson will be an improvement and home dogs are usually scary, but I won’t fall for them like I did last week. Score: Bengals 16-Browns 6 (4 units)

BAL +2: I’d recommend ML bet on this one. Although the Pats and Brady are improving each week, he still looks banged up. With a newly found offense, the Ravens will win this one outright. If the line stays below a FG, the Ravens will be on a million teasers. Score: Ravens 27-Patriots 20 (3 units)

SD +6.5 or PIT: the Bolts will be in playoff revenge mode against a reeling Troyless Steeler team. In the power rankings, the Steelers and Bolts are 7 & 8 respectively, ie, almost even and yet San Diego gets the points. What scares me are the Bolt injuries. Wait til the line hits 7 or more for the BOLT bet. If the line stays at 6.5 or less, go with the Steelers. Score: Steelers 20-Chargers 14 (2 units)

SF -9/5: after a bad-beat close call game last year vs Arizona, the niners under Singletary came home and took their anger out on their next opponent 35 to 16. It was against none other than the Rams. Last week's bad beat against the Vikes will be redeemed by the same patsies of last year in another blow out. (I wish i was playing these on Leroy's 3-n-out, i'm 2-1 there) Score: 49ers 27-Rams 10 (4 units)

TB +9: the Skins haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game this year. They didn’t show up against an 0-19 team last week and barely beat a 0-13 team several weeks ago, and yet they’re laying 9 points? What-what? Both teams are lousy, but getting that many points, I’ll take the Buccs. Buccaneers 16 – Washington 10 (1 unit)

IND -10.5: Peyton will wreak havoc on the Seahawk secondary. West coast teams going east, Seneca Wallace at the helm, I smell a blow out of epic proportions. Colts 30 – Seahawks 10 (4 units)

DEN +3: everyone is saying the Bronco record is a fluke (including myself) but I think the real overrated team are the Boys. Their defense will be torched….how did Dallas earn the position as a 3 point favorite….beating the lousy Buccs, squeeking by the tanking Panthers, teams that are a combined 0-6, hmmm, the line may be backward here, go with the Broncs. Cowboys 14-Broncos 24 (5 units)

NYG -9: A huge mismatch game, the g-men should win this one and cover. If it wasn’t 3 road games in a row, I might try higher units but for now: Giants 31-Chiefs 3 (2 units)

DEN/DAL Under 42: (.5 units)

NO -7: The public is in love with Brees and the Saints, and for good reason, the high flying offense will outscore the good Jet defense. Jets14-Saints 34 (2 units)

OAK/HOU Over 42.5: (.5 units)

Try this little Money Line parlay for value:
Baltimore Ravens +110 ML (2 Units)
Denver Broncos +130 ML (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins +110 ML (2 Units)