Oct. 11, 2009 Free NFL Predictions

YTD: 30-19-0 (+12.1 units)

Early posting this week: since i'll be away from the computer until Sat or Sun morning, i'll post tonite. The positive to this is that i'm going with my first hunches, the negative is that i won't have more time to analyze the stats and talk. First hunches are sometimes better since you don't 'overthink' the plays. Anyway, here goes:

MIN -9.5: another play against the lowly Rams. I smell another blow out of epic proportions. The scary thing is the DD home dog not to mention that everybody and his mother is on the Vikes…. Usually a good time to fade em… but Score: Vikings 27-Rams 3. (2 units)

DEN +3: DEN will win, nobody takes them seriously, the public is pounding the PATs; Denver's head coach was the offensive Coord. for NE, Denver has the momentum, Vegas would love more bets on the PATs, while NE isperceived to be the better team i like the Broncos in this spot: Score: Broncos 24-Patriots 18. (5 units)

SF -2.5: I don’t really understand the love for the Falcons, seems like a case of overrated vs. underated to me. This is a statement game for the niners. Nov 1st will be the better test of the SF defense vs. the Colts, for now, their D will carry them past Atlanta. Master motivator Singletary reminded the 49ers at halftime that Candlestick Park was their house and to play like it. The result was 28 points in the second half (i know it was against the hapless Rams), so i'll ride the train till the wheels fall off; score: 49ers 24-Falcons 13 (3 units)

SF/ATL UNDER (.5 units)

CAR -3.5: Fading the Redskins has been money this year. The Skins lost to the Lions, barely beat the hapless Rams, and last week almost lost to the tanking Bucs. Carolina is stinking up the league too, but at least they lost to quality teams, but coming off a bye, their only stumbling block has been Delhomme’s turnovers; since they’re playing at home they should win; score: Panthers 17-Redskins 6 (2 units)

CIN +9: The public is pounding the Ravens to the tune of 60%. I may wait till kickoff to see if the line moves up to 10. The Bengals like to play it close, whether its against the lowly Browns or the quality teams in the likes of the Steelers or Broncos, Cincy likes to make it interesting, so take the points; Score: Bengals 21-Ravens 18 (3 units)

IND -3.5: I’ll side with the public on this one, Peyton in prime time has been money while the Titans have tanked it for the season. Score: Colts 28-Titans 18 (2 units)

Leans:
NYG -15: keep an eye on Manning’s foot injury & weather, may make a play come gameday.
PHI -14.5: Score 38-0, may put some on gameday here too, but will monitor McNabb/Westbrook’s status this week and also line movement.. Under 14 will be a definite play on Philly.