WEEK 11 - NFL EARLY PICKS Nov. 19 & 22, 2009

YTD: 63-59 (-16 units)

CAR -3: The Dolphins are now 0-7 ATS vs. NFC teams under Tony Sparano. Playing on a short week on the road, the FINS will be facing a Delhomme who hasn't thrown an INT in 3 straight games! The public is pounding Miami like they already know what the score is. Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown will miss Thursday night's game meaning the Wildcat will be wounded. Score: Panthers 28-Dolphins 18 (2 units)

CAR/MIA OVER 43.5 (.5 units)

JAGUARS -9: I hate to kick a dead horse when its down, but the Bills are headless, they will be unprepared, no thorough game plan, assistant coaches will be learning their new duties and TO & the boys will be more confused than they already are. I'll take advantage of the Titanic going down and lay the points. Score: Jaguars 33 - Bills 6 (1 units). **PRE-GAME SWITCH** I'm becomeing leary of the Jags ability to cover a big spread. It took the Jags OT to get past the lowly Lambs and their two-game winning streak were by 3 points at home against the 2-7 Chiefs, and 2 points vs. the 4-5 Jets. The math shows the Jags’ last three wins have come by a total of 8 points against teams with a combined record of 7-20! BILLS +9, Score: Bills 21-Jaguars 24 (2 units)

KC +10: since the dogs have been barking lately, i'll jump on the train, especially with DD lines. I'm looking for a backdoor cover from Cassel at home. Score: Chiefs 14-Steelers 21 (1 unit)

ATL +6.5: The g-men are still getting respect based on their reputation. The teams are more evenly matched than what the public perception is, so take the points. I'd lay more units it weren't for Michael Turner's injury. Score Falcons 28-Giants 24 (2 units).

CHI +3: grab the 3 while its there with the lowest juice possible. Everyone and his mother is on the Eagles mainly because of Cutler's meltdown last week as he 'forced' the niners to win despite themselves. The Eagles always struggle in the windy city. Score: Eagles 21-Bears 27 (2 units)

SF +6.5: You may want to wait to see if you can get +7, but it will probably be a low scoring, tight game, meaning take the niners and the points. Although SF has not been impressive in their wins, the Pack has not shown dominance either, expect a close game. Score: Packers 20-Forty-Niners 21 (3 units).

Seahawks +11: the Hawks may win this outright if they don't shoot themselved in the foot first. While the Vikings are the better team, laying DD is too much this late in the season, especially considering the late season fade of the old man at QB, this may be the weekend it starts. Score: Seahawks 21-Vikings 28 (3 units).

BAL pk: will keep fading the Colts, especially with Ravens at home. The line is pretty shady, seems like Vegas is begging for action on the Colts and the public is obliging. While i like Peyton in general, i'll take the Ravens and Ray Lewis at home. Some of Manning's tosses last week were wounded ducks to wide open receivers, i see the Baltimore D getting into his head here too. Score: Ravens 21-Colts 18 (4 units).

WAS +11: more double digit dogs this late in the season is hard to swallow. Although i don't trust the deadskins, they always seem to play the Boys close, so i'll take the points in this divisional game. Score: Cowboys 24-Redskins 18 (3 units).

Leans:
NO -11.5
NE -10
CIN -9.5
TEN +4.5
Ten/HOU OVER
KC/PIT OVER
SF/GB Over
SEA/MIN OVER