WEEK 9 - Nov 8, 2009 NFL Predictions

TB +10: Some teams are scary when they’re double digit dogs, especially home dogs that bite, remember the Raider game vs. Eagles. Consider that the Pack has beaten the DD dogs handily (Rams by 19. Lions by 26 and Brownies by 28). The Buccs are dead last in most power rankings. So what makes this weekend different? For one, rookie Josh Freeman, starting at QB, was impressive in training camp, second, reports that Aaron Rodgers and Driver are nursing injuries, all smell of an upset…at least ATS. Because its the terrible Buccs, i'll only slap down .5 units. Score: Packers 21-Buccaneers 14 (.5 unit).

SF -4: line opened at -5.5 and now down to -4, even tho the public is pounding the niners. Something fishy is brewing, could be a ‘let-down’ game for the niners after their close loss to the Colts last week. Stopping the run is the 49ers' strength, ranking 2nd by allowing 84.9 YPG. The niner’s rushing D has withstood Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson and Michael Turner, next up….Chris Johnson. The Titans on the other hand are near the bottom on passing defense, which bodes well for the Davis/Crabtree duo. The Titans seem to be energized with Vince Young. Even so, I’ll go with the new offensive force of smith/davis/crabtree/gore and the rushing D of SF: Score: Titans 14 – 49ers 30 (3 units)

ATL -10: another play against a bad team. Matt Ryan is 8-2 ATS at home. Altho the Birds may have left alot on the field last week vs. the Saints, Campbell and his terrible O-line will need more than a bye to keep pace with Atlanta. Score: Falcons 48-Redskins 6 (4 units).

DET +10: the good teams can cover DD spreads, the so-so teams like the Seahawks, who just released Edgerrin James this week are not your typical NFL juggernaut, at least not enough to lay DD points. The Lions have their top receiver back (Calvin Johnson) and still have a pulse. While they may not win, they have a good chance of covering the spread. Score: Lions 14-Seahawks 21 (2 units).

NO -14: Last week the Panthers won on the ground (270 yds) with only 85 yds in passing. To hang with the Saints, Delhomme will have to be heaving the ball downfield, you know what that means? In addition, the Panthers could be in ‘let-down’ mode after their unexpected win over the Cards last week. Quality teams have been laying DD points against bad teams all season, so why buck the trend. Score: Saints 56-Panthers 14 (4 units).

CAR/NO OVER (1 unit):

HOU/IND UNDER (2 units)

DET/SEA UNDER (2 units)

PHI -3: The Eagles seem to own the Boys at home. Score: Eagles 28-Cowboys 21 (5 units)

Leans:
Baltimore -3 (Ravens 24-Bengals 18)
Jacksonville -6.5 (Jaguars 24-Chiefs 14)
Miami +10.5 (Dolphins 21-Patriots 27)
Cardinals +2.5 (Bears 21-Cardinals 24)
Houston +9.5 (Colts 18-Texans 14)
San Diego +4.5 (Chargers 33-Giants 27)