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ADDED GAMES Dec. 27, 2009 NFL PREDICTIONS

BAL +3: the Steelers' 4-10 ATS record is good enough to look to bet against them. The Ravens are more balanced and should hold on to their wild-card lead. Score: Ravens 28-Steelers 21 (2 units) LOSER

GB +14: the Seahawks are 28th in passing defense going against the Rodgers as the #4 passing rating. Coming off their close loss to the Steelers last week and with Seattle's poor road record this year, i smell a blow out of epic proportions: Score: Packers 33-Seahawks 10 (1 unit). **WINNER**

KC +13.5: the Bengals have not put anybody away all, good or bad, with the exception of Chicago back several months ago. While the Chiefs are bad, i'll take the points. Score: Chiefs 18-Bengals 24 (1 unit) *WINNER**

STL +14.5: divisional rival getting DDs, i'll take the dog.  While the Cards are the better team, they have no reason to keep the pedal to the floor.  Score: Rams 18-Cardinals 28 (.5 units). LOSER

SF -13: Detroit has been losing by double digits on the road all season long. The niners should be in the playoffs if it weren't for close games, sweeping the division winner, should've beat the Colts, Texans and Vikings (playoff contenders). I see them taking out their frustration against the hapless Lions. Score: Forty-niners 30-Lions 14 (1 unit). **WINNER**

DEN +7: Philly doens't need this game. The Eagles are on fire and their fans are penciling them into the superbowl. Reid is known for losing games he should win and vice versa.  I'll go with the dog. Score: Broncos 18-Eagles 21 (1 unit). **WINNER**

BUF +9: The Bills pass defense should shut down the poor passing offense of Atlanta. The Bills on the other hand are dead last against the run. It's too bad Atlanta's run game is not good. I'll take the points. Score: Bills 24-Falcons 27 (.5 units). LOSER

CAR +7: the public is pounding the Giants like they already know the score. Matt Moore is keeping the Panthers competitive. While the G-men may be surging, i'll take the points. Score: Panthers 21-Giants 24(2 units). **WINNER**

Jags +8: no one is believing in the Jags while the Pats have sewn up the division. While New England is the better team, they're not good enough to be laying 8 points in a meaningless game. What scares me is the patriot weather this Sunday. Score: Jaguars 20-Patriots 18 (.5 units). LOSER

MNF DEC. 28. 2009 NFL PREDICTION

MIN -7: the Bears haven't covered since Nov. 1. Their offense and defense is stinking up the league, they're dominated in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and Cutler has already mailed it in. Score: Vikings 27-Bears 14 (4 units). loser

DEC. 27, 2009 NFL PREDICTIONS

WAS +6.5: everyone is remembering how bad the skins played last MNF and forgetting the Boys are still 2-9 ATS in December. I'll fade the public. Redskins 18-Cowboys 21 (4 units). loser

OAK +3: If Frye starts, the Raiders should win. Brady Quinn is done for the year. The Raiders have had more impressive wins without Jamarcus. Score: Raiders 14-Browns 10 (3 units) loser

OAK/CLE UNDER 38: both offenses are averaging less than 14 pts per game and both using scrub QBs, I'll take the under. (4 units) **WINNER**

TB +14: divisional games with DD dogs are very enticing.  The Saints may be the better team, but without the need for a victory, New Orleans should be getting ready for the playoffs.  Score: Buccaneers 21-Saints 33 (4 units). **WINNER**

TB/NO UNDER 49: the bucs are riding 5 straight unders and playing a divisional foe. Despite the Saints prolific offense, I see them easing up the final two games. (5 units) **WINNER**

HOU +3: the Fins do not fare well against quality QBs, the likes of Peyton, Brady, Rivers or Brees.  Shaub falls in the category of quality QB and since the Texans need the game, I'll fade the Fins. Score: Texans 24-Dolphins 21 (3 units) **WINNER**

FRIDAY DEC. 25, 2009 NFL PICKS

TEN -3: the Bolts are the better team but all the emotion will be with the Titans at home. A basically meaningless game for San Diego, the Titans need to win to get into the playoffs. The Public is pounding the Bolts like they already know the score.  The warm weather team playing in the cold with a hostile crowd and already with a ticket to the dance, i'll go with the Titans. Score: Titans 28-Chargers 24 (4 units). LOSER

MNF NFL Football Prediction – December 21, 2009

WAS +3: the wrong team is favored. During the start of the year, the Redskins were averaging 17 pts. or less, but in the last 5 games have jumped to 24 pts. per game. The g-men on the other hand have dropped 7 of the last 8 ATS games. Look for the live dog at home to cover. Score: Redskins 28-Giants 21 (3 units). LOSER

NCAAF BOWL PICKS

Dec. 19 (New Mexico): Wyoming +13, wait for higher number if possible **WINNER**
**Dec. 23: Utah +4 ** **WINNER**

**Dec. 26: Ohio -2** LOSER
Dec. 26 (Meinke Car): Pittsburgh -3 - wait for line to drop further before pulling trigger LOSER altho line did drop to +1, i missed it.
Dec. 30 (Holiday): Nebraska +1 **WINNER**
Dec. 31 (Armed Forces): Air Force +4.5 **WINNER**
Dec. 31 (Sun): Stanford +8.5 **WINNER**
Jan. 1 (Gator): Florida St. +3
Jan. 2 (Papa John's): UConn +4.5
Jan. 4 (Fiesta): Boise St. +7
Jan. 7 (BCS title): Texas +5
i'm just sayin....

Dec. 19-20, 2009 NFL PREDICTIONS

Manhandled last month, the hole may be too big to climb out, but here goes:
86-81 (-27.7 units)

NO -7.5: at home in the dome, the Saints have dominated, beating opponents by 8 or more all season long; score: Saints 35-Cowboys 24 (3 units). LOSER

BAL -11: play against Cutler and his INTs. Bears have tanked it for the season. Score: Ravens 27-Bears 10 (5 units). **WINNER**

CLE +2: 'swagger theory' at work, off their win vs. Steelers last week. Score: Browns 18-Chiefs 12 (2 units). **WINNER**

SF +9: public is backing the Eagles like they already know what the score will be. Niners need the win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Score: Forty-Niners 27-Eagles 24 (4 units) LOSER

GB +1: talk about shady lines, I'll bite. the Steelers need this game, but that didn't mean much vs. the Browns. I'll go with Rogers' hot hand again vs. the banged up Ward and 'hold-the-ball-too-long Rothlesberger, not to mention Troy-less defense. Score: Packers 28-Steelers 18 (5 units). PUSH (unless you got 1.5 or 2)

HOU -11: the Rams have tanked it for the season. St. Louis' only offense in Jackson is hurt. I smell a blowout of epic proportions. Score: Texans 38-Rams 6 (4 units) LOSER

TB +6.5: the Bucc QB will either throw 3 TDs or 5 INTs, I'll play the TD angle. Score: Buccaneers 21-Seahawks 24 (2 units) **WINNER**

ADDED GAMES DEC. 13, 2009 NFL Predictions

NO -9.5: Home division dog with revenge (injured) playing a team that is feeling the pressure of staying perfect....also a defense that is not keeping anyone out of endzone. The Saints will have no problem moving the ball around against a beat-up Falcons team without Ryan or Turner. Score: Falcons 18- Saints 44 (3 units). LOSER

HOU -6: Seattle has one road win this year (at St. Louis). Otherwise, they've lost their games away from Qwest Field by 13, 17, 21, 11 and 26. I'll side with the squares and collect the rectangular money to the pay window. Score: Texans 28-Seahawks 18 (3 units). **WINNER**

DEN +7.5: People forget that Manning struggles against the 3-4. The team as a whole hasn't been able to demolish those teams. Against 3-4 clubs, the Colts have victories of 2, 1, 4, 21 and 4 points. While Orton in no way compares to Manning, i'll take the dog needing the win over the favorite already locked into the playoff...i'm just sayin. Score: Broncos 27-Colts 33 (4 units). LOSER

NE -13.5: I don't usually like taking this much chalk, but the Patriots will not be taking this game lightly. The Panthers simply do not have the offensive power to keep up, even in the cold of the Northeast. Score: Patriots 33-Panthers 10 (2 units). LOSER

TB +4: Clemens on the road with the public backing him to the tune of 65%/ the line opened at 3, i like the Buccs in this spot at home. Alltho Freeman debacled my pick last week with redzone INTs, i'll go with them this week. Buccaneers 15-NY Jets 10 (2 units) LOSER

OAK +1: cross country trip for a dejected team. How are the skins going to get up for the Raiders crossing to the left coast? HFA for Oakland, both teams going no where, i'll take the home team. Score: Raiders 18-Redskins 15 (1 unit) LOSER

WEEK 14 December 13, 2009 NFL Predictions

*CIN +6.5: Cincy is a very live dog. Everyone knows that the Bengals play to the level of their competition. Another unique stat is that the underdog in Bengal games is 12-0 ATS this year! (lost as favorites 6 times and won as dogs 6 times…. 12-0 ATS for the UNDERDOG in their games). This week, they're pegged as the dog so i'm siding with the trend, the #4 ranked Bengal D should hang with the Vikes. Score: Bengals 27- Vikings 30 (4 units). LOSER

*MIA +3: while the Jags may be surging, their wins were off teams with losing records. The margins of victory have been low. The Fins meanwhile have been knocking off the likes of New England. Score: Dolphins 27-Jaguars 21 (2 units). **WINNER**

GB -3.5: a big rivalry game in the cold. I'll fade the struggling Cutler at Soldier Field and go with the hot hand of Rogers. Score: Green Bay 28-Bears 18 (3 units). **WINNER**

*NO/ATL OVER 50 - the saints are averaging over 30 points per game. Given the poor Falcon D (26th in the league), it's reasonable to expect New Orleans to reach 40. As a home dog, Atlanta should at least score 10 with or without Ryan. (4 units). LOSER

SD +2.5 : the Bolts are the better team and getting points? The Bolts margin of victory lately has been over 2 TDs. The live dog vs. Romo's late season fade. Score: Chargers 24-Cowboys 21 (3 units) **WINNER**

SD/DAL UNDER (1 unit) **WINNER**

*STL +13: the Rams have not been losing with wide margins lately and will most likely be a low scoring game with the runners on both sides the main offense. Score Rams 17-Titans 21 (5 units). LOSER

*DET +14: the bushel of points can't be overlooked here, especially seeing how the Raven offense has been sputtering lately. With Culpepper at the controls, there should be fewer turnovers. Score: Lions 14-Ravens 21 (2 units) LOSER

KC +1: while the Chiefs are among the dregs of the league, I'll fade the Bills with their growing list of injured players, 8 more have been listed as questionable. While the public may be pounding the Bills, I'll take the Home team at Arrowhead. Score Chiefs 21-Bills 18 (2 units). LOSER

*my Leroy's Pro Challenge plays

Leans (i may pull the trigger on these come gameday)
TB +3.5 - Sanchez out
Oak +1.5 - Haynesworth out
PHI +1.5
DEN +7.5
CAR +13 - holding out for +14, will wait and see, may bet the Under if windy weather holds up

THURSDAY NITE FOOTBALL -DEC. 10, 2009

YTD: 81-72 (-14.8 units)

CLE +10: Yes, I know the Browns suck, but Brady Quinn is showing signs of being the QB of the future. The Steelers lost at home to the Raiders and are now laying points on the road? Still with no Troy and maybe Ward? Hmmm, I'll fade the steelers in this spot. Score: Steelers 24-Browns 18 (3 units). **WINNER**

MNF Football Predictions - Dec. 7, 2009

BAL +3.5: The better team is getting the points, considering that the Pack has run up a decent record with the likes of Chicago, St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay and Cleveland....not exactly a great resume. Against winning teams, they're only 1-3. The Ravens are in the thick of the wildcard hunt. The last few games, the Raven D has showed signs of their old self from a year ago: Score Ravens 21-Packers 18 (3 units). LOSER

WEEK 13 ADDED GAMES - DEC. 5, 2009

NYG +1: weather will be cold and breezy in the meadowlands. We all know Romo's starts in December. The weather means the running game will be emphasized. The Hog indexes on both sides of the ball point to g-men dominance in the trenches. Score: Giants 21-Cowboys 18 (2 units). **WINNER**

STL/CHI Under 41: chicago's average offense and the Rams mediocre offense spells Under all the way. In addition, both team's redzone efficiencies are near the bottom in the league (29 & 21 respectively, you can figure out which one is which.) (2 units) **WINNER**

TB/CAR Under 40: neither has a big time offense and are ranked on the low end of the league. (2 units)**WINNER**

NE -4.5: 3.5 no longer available, mostly at 4.5 for those looking to lay the points. I should've pulled the trigger earlier at 3.5, but oh well, i'll still lay the points with Brady and Moss to cover. Score: Patriots 28-Dolphins 21 (2 units) **GAMEDAY SCRATCH** reports of a finger injury on Brady, take this one off the boards if you haven't already pulled the trigger.

Leans
OAK +15.5: the Raiders can't be taken seriously by the Steelers, so that makes the bushel of points very tempting W
ARI +3.5: Warner at home could stop the over-rated Vikings W
Should've pulled the trigger on these two, but couldn't bring myself to bet for the Raiders or against the Vikings....

Here's my 6-teamer Parlay:
ten +6.5 L
buc +6.5 L
ne -6.5 **SCRATCH**--NO play
gb -3.5
nyg +2.5 L
sf +.5 L

WEEK 13- NFL PICKS DEC. 4 &6, 2009

YTD: 74-66 (-11.3 units)

DEN -4: Broncos are still playing for a playoff spot. The Chiefs can't even snap the long ball right. Score: Broncos 33-Chiefs 18 (5 units) **WINNER**

CIN -13: the rap on Cincy is that they play down to their competition. They do read the papers and are now at home. I see this as a statement game for the better team. I smell a blow-out of epic proportions. Score: Bengals 28-Lions 10 (4 units). LOSER

SF +1: the re-focused Niners are now playing the spread offense and have tossed the conservative "run-only" approach. The result is playing into the strength of Alex Smith and emphasizing the receiver weapons of Crabtree, Davis and Morgan. The Seahawks are already looking to next year. Score: Forty-niners 28-Seahawks 18 (3 units). LOSER

NO -7.5: the Saints are clearly the dominant team, and if the line reaches 9 or ten, i might have to go with the Skins. My only concern is Brees and company not taking this game seriously, especially after their showcase this past MNF. For now: Score Saints 28-Redskins 18 (2 units) **GAMEDAY SWITCH** since the line has moved to 10, i'm switching to the Skins +10 (2 units) **WINNER**

SD -13: this play is mainly against the inept Browns, even if they are DD home dogs. While the Bolts have to travel east, i'd be insane to bet the Browns. Score: Chargers 48-Browns 9 (3 units) LOSER

NYJ -1: The Bills are 3-21 ATS after playing the FINS since 1998, including this year's loss to the Browns 6-3....a weird stat. I'm not convinced that the trend will continue, i'm just saying....who am I to argue with fate? Score: Jets 24-Bills 18 (1 unit). **WINNER**

TEN +7: the Titans are a live dog and are on a roll, they usually play the Colts tough. This could be a let down game for Indy after clinching a playoff berth. You might want to consider a ML bet for this one: Titans 24-Colts 21 (2 units) LOSER

STL +9: the Bears are not dominant enough to be laying 9 points, even if it is vs. the lowly lambs. This play is mostly against the Bears rather than for the St. Louis. Score: Rams 28-Bears 21 (1 unit). **WINNER**

TB +6.5: Carolina has not been consistent enough to lay this many points, especially when Delhomme is back to his INT mode. Score: Panthers 21-Buccaneers 24 (2 units). LOSER

Leans
ATL +9: W
MIA +6.5 W
NYG +1.5 W

ps. i like Oregon State +10 and Washington +7 as live dogs Saturday.... i'm just sayin ***2 WINNERS***

MNF Weekly Prediction Nov. 30, 2009

NO -1.5: The PATS have the worst ATS record. The public just don't believe that the Saints can be better than the Patriots. Everyone remembers the New England 16-0 season, but NE is not the same team this year. The Pat's pass rush will not be able to stop Brees as they'll be looking to make a 'statement' on MNF. Score: Saints 48-Patriots 28 (3 units).

WEEK 12 - NFL PICKS Nov.29, 2009

WAS +9: this may qualify as a 'look-ahead' alert for the Eagles, who have the Giants and Falcons, who they're contending for a wildcard berth with. A divisional game with near double digits is always a safe bet for the underdog (in general of course. Score: Redskins 28, Eagles 24 (2 units)

ARI +2.5: The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 posted as a dog, including 5 as a road dog. The Titans are playing on a short week, I like Warner to cover. Score: Cardinals 31-Titans 21 (4 units). GAMEDAY SCRATCH ***Warner is out

Ind/Hou UNDER 47.5: Texans have gone 7straight to the UNDER with a total of 47.5 or higher and the Colts have a top ranked defense, I like the UNDER (3 units)

SEA/STL UNDER 42.5: With Boller in, look for the lambs to run all day…meaning a low scoring game. In 5 road games, the Hawks have averaged 14 points per game, I like the chances for an Under (2 units).

KC +13.5: The Bolts win but don't cover. KC is 9-1 ATS in their last ten games as a DD dog, and this being a division rival, I'll take the points. Score: Chiefs 24-Chargers 33 (2 units).

LEANS:
MIN -10.5 - mismatch if i ever seen one
MIA -3
CLE +14 - division rivalry, Cincy plays down to competition
CAR +3 - teams going in opposite directions
SEA -3.5
NO -2.5
BAL -1.5 - Pit without Big Ben
JAG +3.4 - the better team getting the points

NCAAF nov. 27-28, 2009

No YTD records, no writeu[ - picks only
Syracuse +13.5
Marshall +1
Oklahoma St. +8.5
Utah +7.5

ADDED TURKEY DAY PLAY:

DET/GB UNDER 47.5 (3 units): the Packers have been dominant over the bad teams this year. The last game vs. the lions was a shut out, look for Greenbay to make most of the points and the Lions a FG or two.

NCAAF Predictions Nov 27-28, 2009

No YTD records or write ups: picks only

Illinois +20
Central Michigan -13
Auburn +10
Pittsburgh -1
Nevada +13.5
New Mexico +45
Florida State +24
BYU -7.5
**ARKANSAS +3.5**
San Jose State -10.5
Houston -29.5
Notre Dame +10
UCLA +13

Thanksgiving Day Picks - NFL Predictions: Nov. 26, 2009

YTD: 72-63 (-8.8 units)

NYG -7: the Broncos are on the skids; while i like home dogs, Orton seems banged up and a short week does not bode well for him, even with a home crowd, i'll lay the points. Score: Giants 28-Broncos 18 (2 units).

GB -9: without Stafford, the Packers will roll. The Lions are historically bad on Thanksgiving, going 1-6 ATS as the home team host since 2002, including some DD dogs. Normally, in division games i'd take the double digit dog, but in this case, on a short week with Stafford out and the Pack on fire, the Lions will be embarrassed on national television... once again. Score: Packers 31-Lions 14 (2 units).

Raiders +14 - Raiders are playing better now that they have a game manager, Cowboys barely got by the lowly DeadSkins, 2 TDs, really? What scares me is that the Cowboys may need a statement game after two sluggish starts and they do play better on turkey day. Also the public is pounding the Raiders after beating the sleep walking Bungholes, so i may lay off, but for now, i'm liking Oakland and the points. I already missed the 16.5 points last week and the number seems to be going south. If it hits 13 or 12.5, i'll think about taking the Boys. Score: Raiders 18-Cowboys 28 (3 units).

and if you want to parlay any of the above, add-in ARKANSAS +3.5 from College football on Saturday..... i'm just sayin...

ADDED GAMES - WEEK 11, Nov. 22, 2009

Titans +4.5: The Titans are the better team right now with Chris Johnson leading the league in rushing and taking the pressure off Vince Young, plus an improved defense. Even tho the public is pounding Tennessee, i'll take the points for a team on fire. Score: Titans 28-Texans 21 (3 units).

OAK+9.5: Call me crazy, but the Bengals may not cover this spread; people who think the Bengals can simply show up and cover the DD against the Raiders are a little foolish (remember the Eagles in the same spot). Now that the turnover machine is gone Gradkowski should make some plays. The Raiders will make adjustments offensively now that Russell is benched. While the Bengals are the better team, they have not won on the road by DD, they are traveling to the left coast, and they seem to like winning games in the 4th qtr, i'll take the Raiders and the points. Score: Raiders 18-Bengals 24 (1 unit).

CLE +3: OK, so the Brownies suck big time, but consider this: through nine games, the Browns have faced just two opponents with a losing record and they are 1-1. That equals Detroit's win count in their last 25 games. The Brownies may be bad, but at least they have been bad against a lot of very good teams. The Lions have just been bad period. The public is remembering last weeks most boringest MNF game in history as Cleveland embarrassed itself on national TV as they're pounding the Lions to the tune of 66%. The best unit on the field is the Brown defense, so the Under looks good too. Score: Browns 13-Lions 9 (3 units)

CLE/DET UNDER 38 (1 unit)-two horrendous offenses

NO/TB UNDER 51 (1 unit): divisional games are usually tighter

Early NCAAF Leans Nov. 21, 2009

Louisville +11.5
Iowa St. +15
**Kentucky +9**
UConn +6
**Air Force +10**
Memphis +23.5
**Army +2.5**

WEEK 11 - NFL EARLY PICKS Nov. 19 & 22, 2009

YTD: 63-59 (-16 units)

CAR -3: The Dolphins are now 0-7 ATS vs. NFC teams under Tony Sparano. Playing on a short week on the road, the FINS will be facing a Delhomme who hasn't thrown an INT in 3 straight games! The public is pounding Miami like they already know what the score is. Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown will miss Thursday night's game meaning the Wildcat will be wounded. Score: Panthers 28-Dolphins 18 (2 units)

CAR/MIA OVER 43.5 (.5 units)

JAGUARS -9: I hate to kick a dead horse when its down, but the Bills are headless, they will be unprepared, no thorough game plan, assistant coaches will be learning their new duties and TO & the boys will be more confused than they already are. I'll take advantage of the Titanic going down and lay the points. Score: Jaguars 33 - Bills 6 (1 units). **PRE-GAME SWITCH** I'm becomeing leary of the Jags ability to cover a big spread. It took the Jags OT to get past the lowly Lambs and their two-game winning streak were by 3 points at home against the 2-7 Chiefs, and 2 points vs. the 4-5 Jets. The math shows the Jags’ last three wins have come by a total of 8 points against teams with a combined record of 7-20! BILLS +9, Score: Bills 21-Jaguars 24 (2 units)

KC +10: since the dogs have been barking lately, i'll jump on the train, especially with DD lines. I'm looking for a backdoor cover from Cassel at home. Score: Chiefs 14-Steelers 21 (1 unit)

ATL +6.5: The g-men are still getting respect based on their reputation. The teams are more evenly matched than what the public perception is, so take the points. I'd lay more units it weren't for Michael Turner's injury. Score Falcons 28-Giants 24 (2 units).

CHI +3: grab the 3 while its there with the lowest juice possible. Everyone and his mother is on the Eagles mainly because of Cutler's meltdown last week as he 'forced' the niners to win despite themselves. The Eagles always struggle in the windy city. Score: Eagles 21-Bears 27 (2 units)

SF +6.5: You may want to wait to see if you can get +7, but it will probably be a low scoring, tight game, meaning take the niners and the points. Although SF has not been impressive in their wins, the Pack has not shown dominance either, expect a close game. Score: Packers 20-Forty-Niners 21 (3 units).

Seahawks +11: the Hawks may win this outright if they don't shoot themselved in the foot first. While the Vikings are the better team, laying DD is too much this late in the season, especially considering the late season fade of the old man at QB, this may be the weekend it starts. Score: Seahawks 21-Vikings 28 (3 units).

BAL pk: will keep fading the Colts, especially with Ravens at home. The line is pretty shady, seems like Vegas is begging for action on the Colts and the public is obliging. While i like Peyton in general, i'll take the Ravens and Ray Lewis at home. Some of Manning's tosses last week were wounded ducks to wide open receivers, i see the Baltimore D getting into his head here too. Score: Ravens 21-Colts 18 (4 units).

WAS +11: more double digit dogs this late in the season is hard to swallow. Although i don't trust the deadskins, they always seem to play the Boys close, so i'll take the points in this divisional game. Score: Cowboys 24-Redskins 18 (3 units).

Leans:
NO -11.5
NE -10
CIN -9.5
TEN +4.5
Ten/HOU OVER
KC/PIT OVER
SF/GB Over
SEA/MIN OVER

LEROY'S CONTEST PICKS - Week 10

23-22-0

Broncos -3.5
Falcons -1.5
Patriots +2.5
Saints -13.5
Cowboys -2.5

ADDED GAMES - WEEK 10, Nov. 15, 2009

NYJ -6.5: the Jets are the better team. Rex Ryan had 2 weeks to prepare for this game, the Pass D is the Jet's strength where the Jags are one of the worst, which means Sanchez will not be throwing any INTs. I'll take the Jets coming off a bye. Score Jets 33 - Jaguars 10 (4 units).

TEN -9.5: Vince Young has won 2 in a row and i'm jumping on the bandwagon along with the public money. The Titans are on a roll which has caused an inflated line (2 weeks ago it would've been -3). Score: Titans 28 - Bills 14 (2 units).

PHI +1: in the wake of their loss to Dallas, their fans are calling for Reid's head and McNabb trade. Facing adversity has caused them to win. Reid's success on the west coast (ignoring the loss to the lowly Raiders) and the fact that the Bolts aren't as good as their record would indicate, i'll take Philly on the westcoast road. (Score: Eagles 33 - Chargers 21 (4 units).

LEANS:
MIN
KC
ARI
BAL
OAK/KC Under

NCAAF Sat. Nov. 14, 2009

No Writeup, no records, just leans:
Indiana +25.5
Tennessee +5.5
Colorado +5
Stanford +11
Texas A&M +20.5
Nevada -7.5.
Tulane +2.5
Utah +20
Wyoming +7
California -3

WEEK 10 NFL WEEKLY PREDICTIONS - EARLY PICKS

YTD: 58-55 (-14.6 units)

SF -3: a short week for both teams, but the east coast team will be traveling to the west. Both teams need the win and the Bears will be huffin and puffin at least to 11:30pm eastern time by the 4th quarter, how awake will they be? Score: 49ers 33 - Bears 18 (4 units)

Cin +7: people are still underestimating Carson Palmer and the Bengals, remember, he's 8-3 lifetime vs the scary Ravens, while the Steelers are not the ravens and they are the better team, the Bungholes seem to play at the level of their opponents, so take the points: Score Bengals 18 - Steelers 21 (2 units)

TB +10: Fins laying 10 doesn't make sense. Fins are 0-6 ATS vs. NFC teams under Tony Sparano. Josh Freeman is a slinger and not afraid to heave it downfield. The Fins are not a high powered offense, but will pound it out on the ground, plus they may be flat after their emotional loss to the Pats last week, i'll take the Bucs with the points. Score: Buccaneers 21 - Dolphins 18 (4 units)

NE +3: Colts are not as good as their undefeated record would seem, they've been losing ATS, which is all that we care about (unless of course you're a fan), this is a big rivalry game and Billicek is always ready for Manning. While Dungy was an equal opponent, the 1st yr Indy coach doesn't match up. Score: Patriots 33 - Colts 28 (2 units).

NO 13.5: i just can't bring my self to bet a ram DD dog vs an elite team. The only question is whether the Saints will be flat or focused and can Stephen Jackson/Bulger keep Brees off the field to stay within 2 TDs? My answer is no. Score: Saints 48 - Rams 9 (3 units).

SF/CHI OVER 43.5 (3 units)

(NOTE: remember, changing lines means changing bets)

Leroy's Pro Challenge Contest Picks

Here's my Leroy's NFL Pro Challenge Contest Play:
PACKERS -9.5
CARDS +2.5
49ERS -3.5
UN HOU/IND 48.5
UN SEA/DET 42.5
21-19-0 (6th place with about 30 others

I'm playin this parlay tomorrow:
Arizona +3
Texans +9
Atlanta -9
San Fransisco -4
KC/JAX UNDER 41.5

ADDED Games/Plays - NFL Weekly Predictions - Nov. 8, 2009

Cin +3: This game will be close, if the public pounds the Ravens (the perception is they have revenge on their mind), you may want to consider the Bungholes who will be getting value if the public hits Balti hard, and Carson Palmer & “85” could easily keep them within reach. Wait till gametime to see if it reaches 3.5. Score: Ravens 20 – Bengals 18 (1 unit).

HOU +9: The line opened at 10 but quickly went down to as low as 8.5. The perception is that the Texans are similar to the niners who covered the spread vs. the heavily favored Colts last week. The public is known to back Peyton at whatever the price, you may want to see if the line goes back to 10 with the public bets Sunday morning before pulling the trigger, but 8.5 or better will still be a play. Score: Colts 18-Texans 14 (4 units).

ARI +3: the line has held steady, but the juice has switched from the Bears to the Cardinals as the early betting support has been for the Cards. The squares will be on the home team at Soldier Field with possible weather issues. With Boldin out, I still think Arizona is the better team. Remember, they did beat NYG several weeks ago. Score: Bears 21-Cardinals 24 (1 unit)

YTD 54-49 (-12.6 units)

WEEK 9 - Nov 8, 2009 NFL Predictions

TB +10: Some teams are scary when they’re double digit dogs, especially home dogs that bite, remember the Raider game vs. Eagles. Consider that the Pack has beaten the DD dogs handily (Rams by 19. Lions by 26 and Brownies by 28). The Buccs are dead last in most power rankings. So what makes this weekend different? For one, rookie Josh Freeman, starting at QB, was impressive in training camp, second, reports that Aaron Rodgers and Driver are nursing injuries, all smell of an upset…at least ATS. Because its the terrible Buccs, i'll only slap down .5 units. Score: Packers 21-Buccaneers 14 (.5 unit).

SF -4: line opened at -5.5 and now down to -4, even tho the public is pounding the niners. Something fishy is brewing, could be a ‘let-down’ game for the niners after their close loss to the Colts last week. Stopping the run is the 49ers' strength, ranking 2nd by allowing 84.9 YPG. The niner’s rushing D has withstood Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson and Michael Turner, next up….Chris Johnson. The Titans on the other hand are near the bottom on passing defense, which bodes well for the Davis/Crabtree duo. The Titans seem to be energized with Vince Young. Even so, I’ll go with the new offensive force of smith/davis/crabtree/gore and the rushing D of SF: Score: Titans 14 – 49ers 30 (3 units)

ATL -10: another play against a bad team. Matt Ryan is 8-2 ATS at home. Altho the Birds may have left alot on the field last week vs. the Saints, Campbell and his terrible O-line will need more than a bye to keep pace with Atlanta. Score: Falcons 48-Redskins 6 (4 units).

DET +10: the good teams can cover DD spreads, the so-so teams like the Seahawks, who just released Edgerrin James this week are not your typical NFL juggernaut, at least not enough to lay DD points. The Lions have their top receiver back (Calvin Johnson) and still have a pulse. While they may not win, they have a good chance of covering the spread. Score: Lions 14-Seahawks 21 (2 units).

NO -14: Last week the Panthers won on the ground (270 yds) with only 85 yds in passing. To hang with the Saints, Delhomme will have to be heaving the ball downfield, you know what that means? In addition, the Panthers could be in ‘let-down’ mode after their unexpected win over the Cards last week. Quality teams have been laying DD points against bad teams all season, so why buck the trend. Score: Saints 56-Panthers 14 (4 units).

CAR/NO OVER (1 unit):

HOU/IND UNDER (2 units)

DET/SEA UNDER (2 units)

PHI -3: The Eagles seem to own the Boys at home. Score: Eagles 28-Cowboys 21 (5 units)

Leans:
Baltimore -3 (Ravens 24-Bengals 18)
Jacksonville -6.5 (Jaguars 24-Chiefs 14)
Miami +10.5 (Dolphins 21-Patriots 27)
Cardinals +2.5 (Bears 21-Cardinals 24)
Houston +9.5 (Colts 18-Texans 14)
San Diego +4.5 (Chargers 33-Giants 27)

NCAAF Sat games - Nov. 7, 2009

No Write-ups, No Records, just leans & plays:
TOP 7:
WISCONSIN -10.5
CALIFORNIA -7.5
NAVY +10.5
OKLAHOMA -5.5
OREGON -6.5
OKLAHOMA STATE -7.5
HOUSTON +1.5

LEANS ONLY
Pittsburgh -21.5
Kansas -2.5
Wyoming +13
Washington +4
Duke +10
Arizona State +10
Colorado State +1
San Jose State +14

ADDED GAMES - WEEK 8 - NOV 1, 2009 NFL PICKS

Jax -3.5: I suppose there's value in taking the Jaguars who are evenly matched. The Titans are on the skids and now have the illustrious Vince Young at the helm. Score: Jaguars 24 - Titans 18 (3 units).

Hou -3.5: Yes, i know the bills have won 2 in a row, but counting the win over the Panthers does not count. Shaub will not be gift wrapping any INTs. Score: Texans 21- Bills 16 (3 units).

MIN +3.5: Favre already beat his former team and the Vikes are the better team. The 'revenge' factor will not come into play, except to drive the public bets to Green Bay. Score: Vikings 24 - Packers 21 (2 units).

WEEK 8 - NOV 1, 2009 NFL Weekly Predictions

You have to be insane to bet the browns, raiders, rams, redskins, bucs, chiefs, and panthers this year, unless you’re getting 20 points or more. Unless the teams they face are flat, the trend should continue the whole year.

CLE +14.5: I smell a blow out of epic proportions. But since the line moved past the key number of 14, I’ll buck the trend of the heavy favorites covering this year. If things haven’t gotten worse for the Brownies, they lost their star linebacker D’Qwell Jackson for the year. I’ll wait till gametime before I pull the trigger on this one, in case it steams higher. Score: Bears 23 – Browns 13 (2 units).

NYG +1: the Eagles lost to the lowly Raiders only two weeks ago and were not that impressive against the Skins last week. 14 of their points were on turnovers and if you takeaway both of DeSean Jacksons long TDs, the eagles had just 138 yards passing and rushing all versus the lowly Skins, I’ll take the g-men at home looking for redemption. Score: Giants 41 – Eagles 20 (4 units)

SF +13.5: I may pull the trigger on the Colts, with Peyton on fire and the average passing defense of SF, the game could be decided by halftime. On the other hand, the alex smith, vern davis and crabtree trio may be able to keep the niners within striking distance. The trio have no stats to plug into any system plays, so they’re the wildcard of the day. Score: Colts 28 – Forty-Niners 18 (1 unit)


MIA +3.5: the Fins have key injuries in their secondary with the loss of Will Allen for the season, they’re now starting 2 rookies at cornerback. With their demoralizing loss to the Saints last week after dominating them in the first half, the Fins may have left everything they had on the field as they face Sanchez and the Jets in the Meadowlands (the first road game for Henne in a hostile environment except for a brief appearance at San Diego in week 3 throwing a pic-six). Still I see the Wildcat dominating keeping Sanchez off the field. Both team are evenly matched, so I’ll take the Fins and points, even after their monumental collapse last week. Because both teams like to run, the UNDER may be the better play: Score: Jets 18 – Dolphins 21 (2 units).

NYJ/MIA Under 40.5 (2 units)

Det -4: battle of the heavy weights, two ugly teams, Offensive Coach Scott Linehan will be able to take advantage of the hapless lambs (he coached the Rams from 2006-2008). If Stafford is back, I’ll lay at least 1 unit on the Lions at Home. If it weren’t for Detroit’s lousy team, I’d be betting at least 4 units against the lambs. The Under may be the play of the day. Score: Lions 18 – Rams 6 (1 units).

DET/Stl UNDER 43.5 (2 units)

DEN +3.5: Again, the wrong team is favored. The public is remembering the vaunted Raven defense of past, but this year they’ve been allowing over 300 yds per game and over 21 points per game. The Broncos, on the other hand are holding opponents to 11 pts per game, I’ll side with Orton the Denver D. Score Broncos 24-Ravens 14 (3 units)

ARI -10.5: The Panthers are threatening to join the dregs of the league (Oak,KC,CLE,STL,DET & TB). Thanks to Delhomme, he’s averaging 3 turnovers/game, the cats didn’t reach 10 pts last week vs the Bills, Warner will be torching Carolina, Score: Cardinals 44-Panthers 9. (5 units)

SD -17.5: Can the Raiders still play with the big boys? Sure they have talent, but with Jamarcus at the helm and the front office taking the team down,..enuff said.. This is more of a play on the hapless Raiders rather than the Bolts at home. Score: Chargers 31 – Raiders 10 (3 units)

NO -10.5: Brees is 20-8 ATS off back-to-back wins, the opening line was -9, i'll side with the public square bet and collect the rectangular money on MNF. Brees will be torching the 19th ranked Falcon passing defense all nite. I like the OVER more, even if it is 54. Score: Saints 40 – Falcons 28 (3 units)

NO/ATL OVER 54.5: (2 units)

Leans – no play
JAX -3 (Titans 14-Jaguars 21)
HOU -3.5 (Texans 21-Bills 16)
MIN +3.5 (Packers 24-Vikings 21)
SEA +9.5 (Seahawks 24-Cowboys 21)

NCAAF Sat games - Oct. 31, 2009

No record keeping and no write-ups
1 RUTGERS +7.5
5 CENTRAL MICHIGAN +5.5
41 GEORGIA +15.5
45 U.C.L.A. +9.5
79 SOUTH CAROLINA +5.5
81 SO.CALIFORNIA -2.5
77 WASH ST +27.5

ADDED GAMES - UPSET PICKS and not so UPSET picks:
N. Carolina +590 over Virginia Tech
Indiana +680 over Iowa
Vanderbilt +350 over Georgia Tech
Iowa St. +7
Kansas St. +28 - (Bradford out)
OSU +9
Wyoming +17

MNF Football Pick Oct. 26, 2009

WAS +9: Philadelphia will be looking to rebound off their dismal loss last week. The Skins will be playing for Jim Zorn's job (and the players do like the coach). This is a heated rivalry and play-calling will be by a Senior's Bingo Caller not as familiar with the players, which is why I'll stay with 1 unit only for the home dog: Score: Redskins 20 - Eagles 22. (1 unit)

WAS/PHI OVER 37.5: MNF trend on the Overs and Skins will be in desperation mode. (.5 units)

ADDED GAmes OCT. 25, 2009 NFL PICKS

IND -13: Lemme see, shall I put my hard earned money on Manning or Bulger, the team that’s on a roll or the one that’s tanked it? The double digit home dog is scary, but 2-4 ATS does not mean they’ll cover…although this is the largest number of points the lambs will have gotten all season. If the line inches to the promised land of 14, I may take the dog, so I’ll wait for gametime to pull the trigger on this one, but for now I’ll take the favorite coming off a bye week: Score: Colts38 – Rams 6 (4 units).

IND/STL UNDER 45 (.5 units)

CHI +1: adding this game, probably just take on money line at anything over even money. Score: Bears 21- Bengals 14 (2 units)

OAK +6: a dog at home, Sanchez is looking worse each week, Jamarcus seemed to have been practicing lately, and even the pigeons are for the Raiders: score: Raiders 14 – Jets 10 (1 unit).

PHI -7: another play against the dredful Skins. The Eagles will be more focused after their embarrassment last week. Score: Eagles 27 - Redskins 10. (2 units)

SD/KC OVER 44 (1 unit)

Leans but no play:
Buf
SD

COLLEGE PLAYS TO CONSIDER OCT. 24, 2009 (PICKS CAPITALIZED):
FLORIDA ST. +2.5 vs. North Carolina (Thursday night...starting to see +3 -120, hope to get +3 flat)
CLEMSON +5 vs. Miami-Fla. (missed the best number, but still the right side...)
INDIANA +6.5 vs. Northwestern (still climbing, we might see 7)
KENT ST.. +10.5 vs. Ohio (line also inching up)
BUFFALO +5.5 vs. Western Michigan (another smaller conference game)
BOSTON COLLEGE +8 vs. Notre Dame (this opened at 10 here in NEVADA)
TENNESSEE +14.5 vs. Alabama (I like the play)
IDAHO +15 vs. Nevada (Idaho 7-0 ATS yet line has climbed from opener of 13)
TEMPLE+3 vs. Toledo (even up to 3.5 at some casinos)
ARKANSAS +6 vs. Mississippi (this line has been climbing, not sure why after Razorbacks went toe-to-toe with Florida)
SMU +17 vs. Houston (SMU playing well under June Jones and can stay competitive)
AUBURN +8 vs. LSU (which Auburn team will show up?)
OREGON ST. +21 vs. USC (certainly surprised this is 3 TDs)

NFL Free Picks - October 25, 2009

YTD 45-32 (+9.9 units)

SF +3: Crabtree had a great 2 week workout from all reports, Gore will be back, the niners are off a bye, the Texan win/loss record looks like this: W-L-W-L-W with SF next in line. I know that’s a poor trend to follow, but what the hey, who am I to argue with destiny?: Score: 49ers 28-Houston 18 (4 units).

MIN +4: as long as the line’s at 4, I’ll take the Vikes. The OVER may be the play on this one. Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS past 6 pre-bye weeks at home. Try to get + 4.5 but line is falling quickly. Plus 4 is acceptable. The two teams are about even so I’ll take the points with Minny: Vikings 21-Steelers 21 (1 unit)

ATL +4: hmmm, a publicly backed underdog. This almost feels like the last MNF, the overrated home team is favored over an under-rated away team. In my opinion the wrong team is favored. America’s Team is ranked 20th vs run/pass (and that’s vs. lowly Buccs,Panthers & Chiefs).: score: Falcons 33 – Cowboys 24 (2 units)

ATL/ UNDER 47 (1 unit)

MIA +7: While the Saints have already been penciled into the Super Bowl and the public is pounding them to the tune of 99%!!! (at 78% by Friday), the run-happy Fins will be able to run on New Orleans and at least keep it close. The Saints have not seen the Wildcat and the Fins are the only ones that can run it successfully. I’ll take the home dog with the points: score: Dolphins 28 – Saints 24 (5 units).

MIA/NO OVER 47 (1 unit)

Early Leans for OCT 25th, 2009

1 Unit
PATRIOTS (-14.5) at Buccaneers
COLTS (-13) at Rams

2 Units
VIKINGS (+4) at Steelers
EAGLES (-7) at Redskins
49ers (+3) at Houston

3 Units
PACKERS (-6.5) at Browns
SAINTS (-6.5) at Dolphins

Write-ups to follow by Friday or Saturday, i may change or add games, thanks.

MNF Oct. 19, 2009

In my opinion, the wrong team is favored, so something is up with Vegas. With the points given to a 5-0 team, they're beggin you to take the Broncos, therefore the Bolts would seem the play for tonite. And with the Bolts coming off a bye, it makes an SD team win most probable. But after saying that, i still like Denver's D and hot offense to cover easily.... but i'm wary on this one. I already pulled the trigger on the Broncos and the OVER, but now i'm having 'buyers remorse' as they say. My recommendation is, it'll be a coin flip.... ie..no play for the purposes of this blog. Go with your hunch on this one, my lean is with the Bolts & Under, sorry.

MIght need to change your bets accordingly:

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NFL Week 6 weather report
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Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (-6, 36.5)

Because Washington’s games aren’t painful enough to stomach, we have been blessed with a 50 percent chance of showers and a 17 mph wind in The District on Sunday. Both teams have had their struggles passing the football and poor weather means lots of rushing, punting and minimal scoring.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-9.5, 36.5)

The Jets defense should have no problem teeing off against a Bills offense that must battle not only one of the most aggressive units in the NFL, but an 80 percent chance of showers with a troubling, 20 mph wind. New York rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez never faced weather conditions like these at Southern Cal.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-9, 40.5)

It’s just another dreary day in Massachusetts for the Patriots. The forecast calls for an 80 percent chance of rain with a strong, 21 mph wind. This is great news for the Titans, who will be without both starting cornerbacks and will look to pound the ball with LenDale White and Chris Johnson.

WEEK 6 NFL PICKS - OCT. 18, 2009

Chiefs +6.5 vs. Redskins (wait to see if I can get 7): the skins have been having trouble scoring this year and that was against the likes of the Rams, Panthers, Buccs and mighty Lions averaging 14 pts. The Chiefs meanwhile beat the Cowboys last week ATS and now they’re getting points vs. the lowly Skins, I’ll take the Chiefs: Score Chiefs 16-Redskins 10. (3 units)

Texans +5 vs. Bengals (seeing +5.5s, so wait to see if steams off Cincy's big win). The public is pounding the Bungholes like they already know the score. Altho Cincy is the better team, the Texans are desperate for a win and may win outright: score: Texans 27-Bengals 24. (3 units)

Ravens +3 vs. Vikings (hoping to get -110 on the +3...will take money line regardless): this is not a strong play and i may lay off this game come game time. it could come down to who has the ball last. Score: Ravens 24-Vikings 21 (.5 units)

Giants +3 vs. Saints (holding out for +3.5 though will take +3 if that's all I can get by gametime) I see it coming down to the wire with two evenly matched teams, meaning the Giants cover with the points, score: Giants 36-Saints 31. (2 units)

JAX -9.5: It’s the season for laying points vs. really bad teams. Gerrard will have his #1 receiver Mike Sims-Walker back after a 1 game suspension and with Maurice Jones-Drew running the ball, the lambs don’t stand a chance. Score Jaguars 36-Rams 10. (4 units)

PIT -14: Willie Parker and Troy Polamalu are due back in the line up this week, and after watching the scrimmage between the Browns and Bills last week, how does anyone think the Brownies will stay within 2 TDs vs. the Steelers? Score: Steelers 36-Browns 3. (2 units)

SEA -3: the Hawks are money at home and with Hasselbeck back in the line-up, the Cards (who barely beat the Texans last week) are facing a fired up Seahawk team, Score Seahawks 33-Cardinals 21 (4 units)

NYJ -9.5: I smell a route of epic proportions. The Bills have tanked it for the season and the Jets with the Sanchez-Edwards attacking duo will be seeking redemption for their losses the past two games. Score: Jets 27-Bills 6. (3 units)

NE -9: Another case of betting against a bad team. The Titans are banged up and have tanked it for the season while the Patriots still have Brady-Welker duo. Score: Patriots 28-Titans 14 (5 units).

BUF/NYJ Under 37.5: (.5 units)
BAL/MIN OVER 43.5: (.5 units)
NYG/NOR OVER 47.5 (1 unit)
WAS/KC UNDER 37.5 (.5 units)
PIT/CLE UNDER 38.5 (.5 units)

EARLY NFL Pick for Oct.18, 2009

YTD: 37-24-0 (+17.7 units)

PHI -14: I don't usually post this early, but the line will climb, grab the 14 now while its this low, it's already risen since yesterday. The Raiders will not cover, no matter if it reaches 20. Score: Eagles 38-Raiders 6.(3 units)

DET +13.5: Here's another early 'line=grabberr" as the line will most likely go down. The Packers may be the better team, but the Lions are playing with alot more heart than a year ago, look for them to cover: Score: Packers 28-Lions 20. (2 units)

MNF Oct. 12, 2009 - No Picks

There are no selections today in the NFL. In analyzing the games on the board, I don't like any enough to play them. Consider the following:

Everybody has been talking about Sanchez but the real story to me is the Jet D. They held the Saints offense to 10 points...the PROLIFIC Saint offense. Rookie mistakes by sanchez allowed the Saints D to outscore their prolific offense. this was the same line sent out most of the week last week with Buffalo the fave against the Fish. The Fish dominated that but hey this ain't Buffalo this is a much more heralded squad.

Rex Ryan will have a great game plan to defend the Fish's wildcat offense (as he did with the Ravens last year) and win this important AFC East match-up. Jets don't want to lose the game edge thay have on NE in their victory over them 2 weeks back. I think when all the dust settles Jets find themselves alone on top in the East after that upstart Bronco team win.

BUT ON THE OTHER HAND: the Fins are stronger than people think, Run Run Run- Ball Control Wins The Game For The Fins. They Shoulda Beat The Colts On A Monday Nite Game A Couple Weeks Ago-Colts Have Rolled Everybody since - The Fins need this game to stay in the division race- Jets Are 3-1 Miami 1-3- a win puts the phins back in It, a loss and its all but over

The Fish need a to win this game more and your getting points may be a good bet, or not, i see it as a coin flip, therefore no play.

With regard to the Totals, the run oriented teams usually are UNDER, buuuut this is MNF and the trend is OVER....so again no play. cya next week.

ADDED GAMES Oct. 11, 2009 Free NFL Predictions

OAK +15: There is no doubt that the G-men are a way better team. But laying more than two TDs in an NFL game? It only takes one interception or fumble or punt return for Oakland to make this a difficult number for the NYG to cover, especially with a gimpy Manning. Even though Jamarcus Russell makes it really hard to make this pick, i'll go with the double digit dogs. (2 units)

DET +10.5: Last year, the Lions were money with double digit spreads, even tho they were the worst team in the league. Now, they're better than last year, while the Steelers were the best team last year. This year, the steelmen are showing alot of mortality without Troy. Even without Stafford Culpepper should make th cover. (2 unis)

HOU +5: the score should be around 24 to 21, with the Texans easily covering. (1 unit)

WAS/CAR Under 37.5 (1 unit)
Den/NE Under 40.5 (.5 units)

Oct. 11, 2009 Free NFL Predictions

YTD: 30-19-0 (+12.1 units)

Early posting this week: since i'll be away from the computer until Sat or Sun morning, i'll post tonite. The positive to this is that i'm going with my first hunches, the negative is that i won't have more time to analyze the stats and talk. First hunches are sometimes better since you don't 'overthink' the plays. Anyway, here goes:

MIN -9.5: another play against the lowly Rams. I smell another blow out of epic proportions. The scary thing is the DD home dog not to mention that everybody and his mother is on the Vikes…. Usually a good time to fade em… but Score: Vikings 27-Rams 3. (2 units)

DEN +3: DEN will win, nobody takes them seriously, the public is pounding the PATs; Denver's head coach was the offensive Coord. for NE, Denver has the momentum, Vegas would love more bets on the PATs, while NE isperceived to be the better team i like the Broncos in this spot: Score: Broncos 24-Patriots 18. (5 units)

SF -2.5: I don’t really understand the love for the Falcons, seems like a case of overrated vs. underated to me. This is a statement game for the niners. Nov 1st will be the better test of the SF defense vs. the Colts, for now, their D will carry them past Atlanta. Master motivator Singletary reminded the 49ers at halftime that Candlestick Park was their house and to play like it. The result was 28 points in the second half (i know it was against the hapless Rams), so i'll ride the train till the wheels fall off; score: 49ers 24-Falcons 13 (3 units)

SF/ATL UNDER (.5 units)

CAR -3.5: Fading the Redskins has been money this year. The Skins lost to the Lions, barely beat the hapless Rams, and last week almost lost to the tanking Bucs. Carolina is stinking up the league too, but at least they lost to quality teams, but coming off a bye, their only stumbling block has been Delhomme’s turnovers; since they’re playing at home they should win; score: Panthers 17-Redskins 6 (2 units)

CIN +9: The public is pounding the Ravens to the tune of 60%. I may wait till kickoff to see if the line moves up to 10. The Bengals like to play it close, whether its against the lowly Browns or the quality teams in the likes of the Steelers or Broncos, Cincy likes to make it interesting, so take the points; Score: Bengals 21-Ravens 18 (3 units)

IND -3.5: I’ll side with the public on this one, Peyton in prime time has been money while the Titans have tanked it for the season. Score: Colts 28-Titans 18 (2 units)

Leans:
NYG -15: keep an eye on Manning’s foot injury & weather, may make a play come gameday.
PHI -14.5: Score 38-0, may put some on gameday here too, but will monitor McNabb/Westbrook’s status this week and also line movement.. Under 14 will be a definite play on Philly.

MNF Oct. 5, 2009

YTD: 29-19 (+11.2 units)

MIN -4: The Pack O-line will be their downfall, although the Vikes won't dominate, they're on a roll right now. Don't risk alot on this one. Score: Vikings 27-Packers 21 (1 unit)

Oct. 4, 2009 NFL WEEKLY PICKS

YTD: 21-16 (0 UNITS)

From now on I’ll start rating the plays on a 1 to 5 unit scale. I should’ve started from day one, but for now the units will start at 0:

CIN -5.5: the Browns have tanked it for the season and the Bengals are on a roll. Derek Anderson will be an improvement and home dogs are usually scary, but I won’t fall for them like I did last week. Score: Bengals 16-Browns 6 (4 units)

BAL +2: I’d recommend ML bet on this one. Although the Pats and Brady are improving each week, he still looks banged up. With a newly found offense, the Ravens will win this one outright. If the line stays below a FG, the Ravens will be on a million teasers. Score: Ravens 27-Patriots 20 (3 units)

SD +6.5 or PIT: the Bolts will be in playoff revenge mode against a reeling Troyless Steeler team. In the power rankings, the Steelers and Bolts are 7 & 8 respectively, ie, almost even and yet San Diego gets the points. What scares me are the Bolt injuries. Wait til the line hits 7 or more for the BOLT bet. If the line stays at 6.5 or less, go with the Steelers. Score: Steelers 20-Chargers 14 (2 units)

SF -9/5: after a bad-beat close call game last year vs Arizona, the niners under Singletary came home and took their anger out on their next opponent 35 to 16. It was against none other than the Rams. Last week's bad beat against the Vikes will be redeemed by the same patsies of last year in another blow out. (I wish i was playing these on Leroy's 3-n-out, i'm 2-1 there) Score: 49ers 27-Rams 10 (4 units)

TB +9: the Skins haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game this year. They didn’t show up against an 0-19 team last week and barely beat a 0-13 team several weeks ago, and yet they’re laying 9 points? What-what? Both teams are lousy, but getting that many points, I’ll take the Buccs. Buccaneers 16 – Washington 10 (1 unit)

IND -10.5: Peyton will wreak havoc on the Seahawk secondary. West coast teams going east, Seneca Wallace at the helm, I smell a blow out of epic proportions. Colts 30 – Seahawks 10 (4 units)

DEN +3: everyone is saying the Bronco record is a fluke (including myself) but I think the real overrated team are the Boys. Their defense will be torched….how did Dallas earn the position as a 3 point favorite….beating the lousy Buccs, squeeking by the tanking Panthers, teams that are a combined 0-6, hmmm, the line may be backward here, go with the Broncs. Cowboys 14-Broncos 24 (5 units)

NYG -9: A huge mismatch game, the g-men should win this one and cover. If it wasn’t 3 road games in a row, I might try higher units but for now: Giants 31-Chiefs 3 (2 units)

DEN/DAL Under 42: (.5 units)

NO -7: The public is in love with Brees and the Saints, and for good reason, the high flying offense will outscore the good Jet defense. Jets14-Saints 34 (2 units)

OAK/HOU Over 42.5: (.5 units)

Try this little Money Line parlay for value:
Baltimore Ravens +110 ML (2 Units)
Denver Broncos +130 ML (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins +110 ML (2 Units)

MNF Sept 28, 2009 NFL PICKS

Ouch!, yesterday hurt bad. The live dogs were brutally killed. Tonite, we need to make a comeback.

Carolina +9 - Carolina lost again last week but was competitive. They out gained Atlanta 6.6yppl to 5.8yppl, out rushing Atlanta 5.8ypr to 4.1ypr. They were out passed 8.1yps to 7.0yps. Everything is pointing to take a shot at Carolina with the points. The TWO issues I have is, the public is also pounding on this team at 91% as we speak and i don't trust Jake. but on the other hand, i trust Romo less. Barber is out (or at least hurt) and the Panthers have a good running tandem so i'll go with the UNDER 48.

ADDEd Games Sept. 27, 2009 NFL PICKS

ATL +4 - Brady's banged up, the Pat D is not what it used to be and Matt Ryan's on a roll.

HOU -4: The Jags are going no where fast, the Texans have owned the Jags lately.

TEN +3 - a good team that's desperate should win in this spot.

ARI -2.5 - Peyton is good in prime time, but the Colts will not be able to keep up with the Cardinal WRs.

SEPT 27, 2009 NFL FREE PICKS

St. Louis +7 The Rams are lousy this year and are stinking up the league. The public is pounding the Pack. So why do i like the Rams in this spot (besides being a home dog)? I don't think the Rams are as bad as people think, and while they may lose at home, they will cover.

Tampa Bay +7
The home dogs will be out in force Sunday. The g-men have some injury issues and the Bucs are in desperation mode. A loss will make the rest of their season irrelevant. The high number and high public backing of the g-men makes me want to pick the Buccs to win, or at least cover.

Cleveland +13.5
"LOOK AHEAD ALERT", the ravens are looking to next week's game with the Patriots. No one is taking the Browns seriously. There's no doubt the Ravens are the better team, but can they cover in a 'let down' and 'look ahead' game. Wait to kickoff to see if you can get the key number 14, as the public pounds the favorite.

San Francisco +7 **updated number from Leroy's**
The Niners are still not getting respect, which is good for the early season bettors. Holding Peterson to 3 yards the last time they met is still a bad taste in AP's mouth. What scares me is his quote that this game will be his redemption. The sharps are hoping the squares will hop on the Favre bandwagon, wait to bet just before kickoff to see if the key number turns 7.

Buffalo +6
Another "wait till kickoff bet" to see if the squares drive up the points for the home dogs. The Saint train is coming to town with the Brees high flying offense. I also like the Over but will wait to see what the weather is doing Sunday. For now this is just too many points for the home dog that nearly beat the Pats on the road.

Miami +6
After being debacled by the dreadful two minute offense last week, i swore not to bet the Fins again.....so here i am taking them when they've become a 'fade bet" this season? The Bolts and LT are banged up and look like a typical Norv Turner disorganized team. Without the injured Jamal Williams, how can they slow the Fin wildcats? So this is more of an anti-bolt bet rather than a pro-Fin bet.
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Oakland +2 - another home dog that i hate, especially with a QB that can't hit the broad side of a barn. The Broncos QB is not much better and they only beat the Bungholes on a fluke play and beat a lousy Brown team. Traveling to the west coast

OVER cowboys/panthers 46 - jumped on this now as it may get to 48 by kickoff. carolina's defense has looked horrific the first 2 weeks, and the boys will be amped to avenge the giants loss. carolina has the offensive weapons to put up several td's on an avg dallas defense. if im up big going into this game, i may add more. This may be the play of the week.

Leans for now:
TITANS +3 - jets have a big time letdown off the NE win, playing a desperate titans team
UNDER jets 37 - 2 excellent defenses. this total is great value at 37, any lower...stay away.
TEXANS -3.5 - the JAGS are a fade bet
UNDER vikings/49ers 40.5
seahawks +2
OVER saints 52.5 - buffalo's new no huddle offense is looking good while their defense is not keeping up, the weather is the only question mark.

Added Games Sept. 20, 2009

TB +4.5: The public is pounding the Bills and they ARE the better team, but with the emotional loss against the Pats, the Bills will most likely be flat this week. Will Trent be finding more receivers downfield like TO is wanting?

CHI +3: without Troy, the Steeler D is not all that imposing, i like home dogs.

MIA +3 - The Underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams,another home dog. I like Manning, but his Sept. record is not all that great.

NYg +3 - I like the g-men to open the new stadium in style, with an outright win. Sorry, no reason, but i don't like the boys in general.

Added Play: MIA ML +150 - expect a poor showing from Colt Offense and an amped up crowd for home MNF.

WEEK 2: Sept. 20, 2009 NFL Picks:

YTD: 12-4-0
NYJ +5 - i like taking the home dog with the points. Brady is not in top form and he looks banged up, the Pat D is not what it used to be without Bruski and others. The thing that scares me is Belichick's record vs. rookie QBs and the recent trash talking of the Jets, but i'll take the Jets anyway: score: Patriots 28-Jets 24.

STL +10 - The Rams are stinking up the league, so why am i picking them? Mainly because of the spread, AND the public is pounding the Skins. It may be too early to judge, but Washington's offense will not be able cover. Score: Rams 18-Redskins 21

OAK +3 - The Raiders appear on a mission, the D-line has been energized by Seymour and they should've won the Bolt game last week outright. Even tho the public is backing the dog in Oakland, the Raiders are a changed team....at least for now. Score: Raiders 21-Chiefs 14

HOU +7 - The public is pounding the Titans. Vegas is wanting you to lay the points with Tennessee, that tells me that the Texans will cover. Score: Texans 24-Titans 28.

SF -1.5 - The way the Hawks shut out St. Louis and after the niners beat last year's NFC Champs, seems to point to an almost pick-em game, i like the change in attitude in SF, billboards are everywhere in SF showing the "I Want Winners" battlecry. That seems to have changed their play too and the game's not at Qwest field, i'll side with Singletary: Score: 49er 24-Seahawks 18.

CAR +6.5 - Delhomme had too many turnovers last week and he'll be protecting the ball more. The two teams are more even than the public's perception after week 1, I look for a close game, meaning the panthers cover: Score: Panthers 21-Falcons 24

CIN +9.5 - Carson Palmer will keep it close. The Bengals dominated Denver and should've won last week, while the Packers barely won. The teams are not as far apart as the line suggests. Score: Bengals 18-Packers 21.

PHI/NO OVER 46 - With the Saint's high flying offense and poor defense, the total will fly over 50 with or without McNabb.

Leans: (i may play these...gameday decision)
NYG
TB
CHI
MIA
STL/WAS Under

MNF 9/14/09 NFL PICKS

BUF +12 - Pats were notorious for losing ATS during Brady's superbowl run.

OAK +10 - going against double digits home underdog doesn't sound appealing...even if it is the hapless Raiders

WEEK 1 NFL PICKS

Already 2-0-0 going into the weekend:

WEEK 1 Picks:
49ers +6.5: Super Bowl losers suck the following season. Even without a good QB, Singletary will be ‘willing’ the niners to a victory. Niners 24-Cardinals 21.

Texans -4.5 : I like Sanchez too, will he be shining his first NFL start. Texans 31-Jets 21.

Rams +9: upset pick of the week. Bulger should keep within a TD, remember the Seahawks are not THAT good at home openers (4-9-1).

Ravens -13 : Cassel, Thigpen & crew don’t stand a chance vs. Raven defense. I smell a blow out. Baltimore 35-KC 0. Somebody convince me to not take the double digit favorite on opening day.

Packers -3.5: home at Lambeau on opening day. People are liking Cutler, but now for the welcome to the black and blue division.

Cowboys -1: against the worst team in the league (along with Lions & Raiders) the boys should roll over the Bucs. Cowboys 38-Buccaneers 10

WAS +6.5: G-men may be the better team, but with Haynesworth and smash mouth football afoot, expect a close game....meaning the Skins cover.

Jaguars +7.5: Indy is the better team, but I’m looking for the Jags to cover, Colts 21-Jags 18.

Browns +4: the public is pounding the Vikings, smells like a trap game, Browns 21-Vikings 18. I may have a gameday switch or even lay off this one.

Leans for now:
i'll pull the trigger Saturday....the trap games Vikes/Dallas/Bolts seem too easy?? or am i missing something. I also like these UNDERS: CHI/GB un46.5, DET/NO un48.5, NE/BUF un47

OPENING DAY 9/10/09

Looking back now 5 years running, the NFL Thursday Favorite has gone 25-5 ATS. What also is noted is the Superbowl winner is now 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 opening games the following year!!! Favorites were also a winner during opening day last year. Does that mean the Steelers are a lock? Of course not, but all the makings point to it. But people are forgetting that th Titans are an elite team, they'll at least cover. I'll go with TEN +6 and the UNDER 35.

Sept 5, 2009 College Football Picks

Wake Forrest -2.5
Nevada +14.5
Illinois -6.5
Oklahoma -22
Alabama -6.5
CAL -21
LSU -17.5
Georgia +5.5

In vino veritas...

9/3/09 FINAL PRESEASON NFL PICKS

YTD Preseason: 13-7-2

DET +3.5 (4 units)
NYJ/PHI Under 37 (.5 units)
NE +3 (3 units)
BAL +3 (1 unit)
CIN -3.5 (1 unit)
WAS/JAX Under 35 (.5 units)
STL +1 (3 units)
NO -3 (1 unit)
NO/MIA Over 36.5 (.5 units)
CLE/CHI Over 36 (.5 units)
GB +3.5 (1 unit)
GB/TEN Under 36 (.5 units)
SEA -2.5 (3 units)

9/2/09 Free MLB Picks

CWS Buehrle -145 (2 units)
KC Bannister +145 (1 unit)
LAA Kazmir +117 (1 unit)
DET Porcello -145 (1 unit)


parlay: CHC,PHI,COL,STL,LAD

In vino veritas...

9/1/09 free MLB Picks

Tex -140
Bal +160
Det -200
Phi -185
Pit +110
Tex -160 2nd game
CWS -137
COL -210
Sea +123

8/31/09 FREE NFL PICKS

Preseason YTD: 12-6-2
MNF 8/31/09 picks:
Hou -3 (1 unit)
UNDER 39.5 (.5 units)

8/29/09 NFL PICKS

YTD PRESEASON 10-5-2

NO/OAK Under 41 -110 (2 units)
SD/DAL Under 39 -110 (2 units)
BAL/CAR Under 34 -110 (2 units)

8/27/09 FREE NFL Preseason Pick

Preseason YTD: 9-4-2
Mia/TB UNDER 36 -110 (1 unit)
CIN ML -130 1st half (1.5 units)

8/26/09 FREE MLB PICKS

HOU/STL Under 7.5

8/25/09 Free MLB Picks

NYY Chamberlain -1.5 +115 (1 unit)
TOR Cecil +129 (1 unit)
CWS Contreras +265 (.5 units)
KC Greinke -1.5 +130 (2 units)
LAA Lackey -1.5 +120 (3 units)
OAK Anderson +110 (1 unit)
NYM Figueroa +188 (1 unit)
SF Cain -1.5 +160 (2 unit)

In vino veritas...

8/24/09 MNF PICK

YTD: 8-4-2

NY Jets +3

8/23/09 FREE MLB PICKS

Minnesota/KC Under 9.5 -120 (2 UNITS)
San Francisco -105 (2 units)
LA Dodgers -169 (1 unit)

8/22/09 PRESEASON PICKS

YTD: 6-3-2
Tampa Bay +3 -110 (1 unit)
Carolina +3 -115 (2 units)
San Diego +2.5 -110 (3 units)

8/21/09 PICKS

YTD Preseason: 5-2-2

ATL/STL Under 36 (1 unit)
KC +3 (1 unit)

8/19/09 NFL Pick

YTD Preseason 4-2-2

CIN +7 -110 (1 unit)

8/18/09 PICK

MLB Pick:
Chicago White Sox -1.5 +165 (2 units)

8/17/09 FREE NFL/MLB PICKS

NFL YTD PRESEASON: 4-2-1
Jacksonville +3 (1 unit)

MLB
MIN/TEX UNDER 9.5 (1 unit)
Chicago White Sox -1.5 -115 (1unit)

8/16/09 MLB FREE PICK

Only one play today, left over from yesterday:

MLB
FLO VanderHurk +100 (2 units)

Was there anything Germany could do to win the war?

Hitler's Mistakes During WWII
1. Started too late in the year (1941), by the time they reached Moscow, the coldest winter in years hit and the Werhmact was totally unprepared.

2. Guderian's Panzers were diverted south at the gates to Moscow in 1941.

3. Again in 1942, the Germans made the fatal mistake of splitting Army Group South in two culminating in the debacle at Stalingrad and the failure to reach to Caucasus oil fields.

4. The Soviets were into a mindset of ordering important and troop saving withdrawals. At Stalingrad the Germans lost 25% of their entire operational strength in the Eastern Front, a heavy blow by all accounts but NOT decisive. It would however be the main factor for Germany's not being able to complete the conquest of Russia.

5. The Germans blew another chance during their offensive in the summer of 1943. Against Guderian's opinion that the production of Tiger and Panther tanks should be up to operational standards, Hitler launched the ill fated offensive at Kursk. The results being the destruction of the panzer armies. The fact that the German still had the capability to launch an offensive of this magnitude in 1943 proves that Stalingrad was not a decisive turning point in the war. From then on, it was just a delaying tactical war against the Red Army.

6. On the western front, two mistakes come to mind: stopping his tanks and allowing the BEF to escape to Britain via Dunkirk, and switching from the bombing of airfields and radar stations to London and other cities....the RAF was nearly brought to its knees before that 'miracle.'

7. Hitler made the mistake of diverting resources to multiple designs, rather than picking the best and staying with it... example is the multiple tank designs.

Of course the race to make the first operational nuke would've made all other 'what ifs' meaningless. If Hitler devoted the national resources in developing the a-bomb in 1939, the end would've been much different.

8/15/09 Free Picks

NFL YTD preseason record 2-0-1
ATL +3
CLE +3
HOU/KC UNDER 37.5
TB +4

MLB
FLO VanderHurk +100 (2 units)
OAK Gonzales +104 (2 units)

Is it a true fact that World War III is closer and closer to us?

Best Answer - Chosen by Voters

I'd say it already started...the pre-lude was 9/11 attack on America. Act I was the US invasion of Iraq.

Act II will be a middle east conflagaration around Israel,Palestine,Syria,Iran axis.

Act III - while US is busy defending Israel, North Korea will take the opportunity to invade the South and China will takeover Taiwan...leading to nuclear showdown similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Act IV - will be the breakdown of the "system", loss in confidence of US economy, long gas lines at the pump, Constitutional rights abolished

Act V - the end...who knows how it will end, but Einstein said World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones....

Friday Pre-Season 8/14.09 PICK

MIN over INDY pk (1 unit): Peyton will only play 1 series, the MIN second string QBs are better than INDY's... true story.

First Pick of the Season....Preseason HOF Game

BILLS +3, Buffalo 28-Tennessee 18 - I don't normally like to bet pre-season games, buuuuut, Bills fans will be in force in Canton to see their players enshrined, T.O.'s first game as a Bill; this spells motivation you don't usually get in a pre-season game.....and it's still a meaningless game for the Titans.

Had the Holocaust not have occurred, how many Jews would be in the world today?

Best Answer - Chosen by Asker

If birth and death rates stayed the same across the years, population growth by the 12 million could be figured with a fairly simple formula much like the one used to figure compound interest.

Birth and death rates aren't constant across countries and through time, however. Disease or disaster can cause death rates to increase for a certain period. A booming economy might mean higher birth rates for a given year.

But aside from the unknown variables, we'll assume that the rate is based on the average planetary growth rate, thus: We'll use 2% growth from the 60s and 1.5% from 1990 onwards.....gets us about 26.9 million from your 12 million figure.

What was the significance of the air raid in Dresden? Weren't air raids commonplace during the war?

Up to October 1944, Dresden was not considered a military target. What had changed for it to be the lasting legacy of allied carpet bombing?

Dresden was an old cultural medieval and picturesqe city and had hardly been touched by air raids. For the most part, it was undefended, with no anti-aircraft guns.

In early 1945, German troops were moving through Dresden. This may have been to fight the advancing Soviet Army or to reinforce fighting elsewhere. Dresden was a key transport junction. To Churchill and his war cabinet, this made Dresden a strategic target. Bombing the city might halt the flow of German troops and speed the advance of the Soviet army into Germany. Bombing Dresden might help the Russian war effort.

It was clogged by civilian refugees fleeing the dreaded Red Army.

There may have been another reason for choosing Dresden as a target. Bombing was believed to have an effect on morale. The idea was that civilians would be so traumatised by the continual threat to their lives, that they would stop believing they could win the war and would lose the will to fight. (This had been practised on both sides already. Attacks on places such as London in 1940-41, Coventry in 1941 and Hamburg in 1941 actually made the local people more determined.)

The decision was made at a time when Britain had suffered the Blitz, as well as random bombarding by German rockets, and when Hitler had devastated cities such as Warsaw. British leaders also knew about the Nazi treatment of Jewish people in the concentration camps.

Therefore, in short there were two reason: the train stations were a key hub in the german war effort and Air Marshall "bomber" Harris & others wanted retribution for the bombing of Coventry and other cities. (btw, the trains were up an running several weeks after the attack) The use of incendiaries, the resulting fire storm and death of civilians (mostly women and children), hospitals, churches, schools, etc, made Dresden stand out and on the same pedestal as Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Source(s):
just my opinion

Why wasn't the United States charged with war crimes for the bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima?

An opinion was rendered in international courts to wit:

"in the light of international humanitarian law, it should be borne in mind that during the Second World War there was no agreement, treaty, convention or any other instrument governing the protection of the civilian population or civilian property, as the Conventions then in force dealt only with the protection of the wounded and the sick on the battlefield and in naval warfare, hospital ships, the laws and customs of war and the protection of prisoners of war"

At the time, "total war" meant the civilians on both sides faced indiscriminate aerial bombing, including incendiary attacks, nuclear attacks, and assaults on centers of culture/churches/schools, etc.

A change in the Geneva Conventions, beginning in 1949 were the results from the uproar of the fire bombing of Dresden, nuclear attacks on Japan, and other indiscriminate carpet bombing during WW II.

Therefore, in answer to your question, there were no specific treaties or conventions broken AT THE TIME of the bombings and therefore it was not a war crime, these prohibitions all came after the war.

Morality in War and Atomic Attacks?

Some of us will be called upon to do the heavy lifting, to do the nasty things that normal everyday citizens will not be asked to do. We do it because we care for our families and our country. When we are attacked we will fight and defend ourselves with all of our might. Some of us will die.

Others will be called upon to lead and make difficult life and death decisions. We pray that we are on the side of the good morality and not evil. We have tried to do good. We have not always been perfect.

Absolute morality like absolute justice is not attainable in this world or in any world.

"I wanted to do everything that I could to subdue Japan. I wanted to kill the bastards. That was the attitude of the U.S. in those years." "I have been convinced that we saved more lives than we took," he said referring to both American and Japanese casualties from an invasion of Japan. "It would have been morally wrong if we had that weapon and not used it and let a million more die."

Paul W. Tibbets
Pilot of the Enola Gay
(died Nov. 2007)

" ... you should know that Japanese culture, belies, and religous upbringing was one of death--that dying is glorious--especially dying for the emperor. The military was also guided by the Samuri code, which believes in dying for the "cause."
The culture of America was to survive and live. The atomic bomb did what it was intended to do and that was to end the war.

Louis Kagalis, 6 Aug. 1995

...When the Japanese government announced the Pearl harbor attack, radio stations played a martial song:

Across the sea corpses in the water;
Across the mountain corpses in the field.
I shall die only for the Emperor,I shall never look back.

Uno Shintaro, a Japanese soldier in the China campaigns, was interviewed after the war for a book --"Japan at War: An Oral History" --written by Haruko Taya Cook and her husband. This is part of his story:

"I personally severed more than forty heads (of Chinese prisoners). Today, I no longer remember each of them well. It might sound extreme, but I can almost say that if more than two weeks went by without my taking a head, I didn't feel right. Physically, I needed to be refreshed. I would go to the stockade and bring someone out.... I'd (behead them) on the riverbank, by the regimenyal headquarters....I sometimes bothed the job. (The prisoners) were physically weakened by torture.... (They) tended to move .... Sometimes I'd hit the shoulder. Once a lung popped out, almost like a baloon.... Looking at that, I felt ecstasy. (But) I'm not that way today."

Should they have hung Hirohito?

"In my opinion, the A-bombing of Japan was a necessary evil to end WW2. It is known for fact that the US planned to invade mainland Japan. It is also known for fact that the Japanese were determined to defend their mainland islands without any regard to casualties."

You are arguing that they surrendered because of regard to casualties-ie 2 bombs, this sort of undermines your claim that they would defend without regard to casualties, don't you think?

..........
" Had the invasion taken place there would have been many millions of casualties, predominantly Japanese (the Americans estimated about one million of their own). The two A-bombs took the lives of less than half a million people and the war was over. This must sound like the devil's arithmetics, but the facts are undisputable."

These facts have been frequently disputed. It seems to be a marker of self doubt that the pro bomb case has to vehemently stick by the worst case scenario for invasion, and the highest casualty estimates, and to ignore the aggressive, rapid and successful soviet entry into the war against japan. When weighing arguments it's a good idea to keep your thumb off the scales.
..............................................................

"Wisely afterwards, the Americans ruled Japan through Emperor Hirohito, him being the unifying symbol of Japan, and through him making the Japanese people accept a constitutional monarchy."

Survival of the emperor and the imperial house was an express term the japanese sought in their peace overtures. Peace could have been had just about anytime from feb45 had the US explicitly accepted this term which was ultimately granted! I know it's not central to the bomb argument but Hirohito's criminality , and that of numerous members of the royal household was beyond doubt. Hirohito should've hung.