MNF Weekly Prediction Nov. 30, 2009

NO -1.5: The PATS have the worst ATS record. The public just don't believe that the Saints can be better than the Patriots. Everyone remembers the New England 16-0 season, but NE is not the same team this year. The Pat's pass rush will not be able to stop Brees as they'll be looking to make a 'statement' on MNF. Score: Saints 48-Patriots 28 (3 units).

WEEK 12 - NFL PICKS Nov.29, 2009

WAS +9: this may qualify as a 'look-ahead' alert for the Eagles, who have the Giants and Falcons, who they're contending for a wildcard berth with. A divisional game with near double digits is always a safe bet for the underdog (in general of course. Score: Redskins 28, Eagles 24 (2 units)

ARI +2.5: The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 posted as a dog, including 5 as a road dog. The Titans are playing on a short week, I like Warner to cover. Score: Cardinals 31-Titans 21 (4 units). GAMEDAY SCRATCH ***Warner is out

Ind/Hou UNDER 47.5: Texans have gone 7straight to the UNDER with a total of 47.5 or higher and the Colts have a top ranked defense, I like the UNDER (3 units)

SEA/STL UNDER 42.5: With Boller in, look for the lambs to run all day…meaning a low scoring game. In 5 road games, the Hawks have averaged 14 points per game, I like the chances for an Under (2 units).

KC +13.5: The Bolts win but don't cover. KC is 9-1 ATS in their last ten games as a DD dog, and this being a division rival, I'll take the points. Score: Chiefs 24-Chargers 33 (2 units).

LEANS:
MIN -10.5 - mismatch if i ever seen one
MIA -3
CLE +14 - division rivalry, Cincy plays down to competition
CAR +3 - teams going in opposite directions
SEA -3.5
NO -2.5
BAL -1.5 - Pit without Big Ben
JAG +3.4 - the better team getting the points

NCAAF nov. 27-28, 2009

No YTD records, no writeu[ - picks only
Syracuse +13.5
Marshall +1
Oklahoma St. +8.5
Utah +7.5

ADDED TURKEY DAY PLAY:

DET/GB UNDER 47.5 (3 units): the Packers have been dominant over the bad teams this year. The last game vs. the lions was a shut out, look for Greenbay to make most of the points and the Lions a FG or two.

NCAAF Predictions Nov 27-28, 2009

No YTD records or write ups: picks only

Illinois +20
Central Michigan -13
Auburn +10
Pittsburgh -1
Nevada +13.5
New Mexico +45
Florida State +24
BYU -7.5
**ARKANSAS +3.5**
San Jose State -10.5
Houston -29.5
Notre Dame +10
UCLA +13

Thanksgiving Day Picks - NFL Predictions: Nov. 26, 2009

YTD: 72-63 (-8.8 units)

NYG -7: the Broncos are on the skids; while i like home dogs, Orton seems banged up and a short week does not bode well for him, even with a home crowd, i'll lay the points. Score: Giants 28-Broncos 18 (2 units).

GB -9: without Stafford, the Packers will roll. The Lions are historically bad on Thanksgiving, going 1-6 ATS as the home team host since 2002, including some DD dogs. Normally, in division games i'd take the double digit dog, but in this case, on a short week with Stafford out and the Pack on fire, the Lions will be embarrassed on national television... once again. Score: Packers 31-Lions 14 (2 units).

Raiders +14 - Raiders are playing better now that they have a game manager, Cowboys barely got by the lowly DeadSkins, 2 TDs, really? What scares me is that the Cowboys may need a statement game after two sluggish starts and they do play better on turkey day. Also the public is pounding the Raiders after beating the sleep walking Bungholes, so i may lay off, but for now, i'm liking Oakland and the points. I already missed the 16.5 points last week and the number seems to be going south. If it hits 13 or 12.5, i'll think about taking the Boys. Score: Raiders 18-Cowboys 28 (3 units).

and if you want to parlay any of the above, add-in ARKANSAS +3.5 from College football on Saturday..... i'm just sayin...

ADDED GAMES - WEEK 11, Nov. 22, 2009

Titans +4.5: The Titans are the better team right now with Chris Johnson leading the league in rushing and taking the pressure off Vince Young, plus an improved defense. Even tho the public is pounding Tennessee, i'll take the points for a team on fire. Score: Titans 28-Texans 21 (3 units).

OAK+9.5: Call me crazy, but the Bengals may not cover this spread; people who think the Bengals can simply show up and cover the DD against the Raiders are a little foolish (remember the Eagles in the same spot). Now that the turnover machine is gone Gradkowski should make some plays. The Raiders will make adjustments offensively now that Russell is benched. While the Bengals are the better team, they have not won on the road by DD, they are traveling to the left coast, and they seem to like winning games in the 4th qtr, i'll take the Raiders and the points. Score: Raiders 18-Bengals 24 (1 unit).

CLE +3: OK, so the Brownies suck big time, but consider this: through nine games, the Browns have faced just two opponents with a losing record and they are 1-1. That equals Detroit's win count in their last 25 games. The Brownies may be bad, but at least they have been bad against a lot of very good teams. The Lions have just been bad period. The public is remembering last weeks most boringest MNF game in history as Cleveland embarrassed itself on national TV as they're pounding the Lions to the tune of 66%. The best unit on the field is the Brown defense, so the Under looks good too. Score: Browns 13-Lions 9 (3 units)

CLE/DET UNDER 38 (1 unit)-two horrendous offenses

NO/TB UNDER 51 (1 unit): divisional games are usually tighter

Early NCAAF Leans Nov. 21, 2009

Louisville +11.5
Iowa St. +15
**Kentucky +9**
UConn +6
**Air Force +10**
Memphis +23.5
**Army +2.5**

WEEK 11 - NFL EARLY PICKS Nov. 19 & 22, 2009

YTD: 63-59 (-16 units)

CAR -3: The Dolphins are now 0-7 ATS vs. NFC teams under Tony Sparano. Playing on a short week on the road, the FINS will be facing a Delhomme who hasn't thrown an INT in 3 straight games! The public is pounding Miami like they already know what the score is. Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown will miss Thursday night's game meaning the Wildcat will be wounded. Score: Panthers 28-Dolphins 18 (2 units)

CAR/MIA OVER 43.5 (.5 units)

JAGUARS -9: I hate to kick a dead horse when its down, but the Bills are headless, they will be unprepared, no thorough game plan, assistant coaches will be learning their new duties and TO & the boys will be more confused than they already are. I'll take advantage of the Titanic going down and lay the points. Score: Jaguars 33 - Bills 6 (1 units). **PRE-GAME SWITCH** I'm becomeing leary of the Jags ability to cover a big spread. It took the Jags OT to get past the lowly Lambs and their two-game winning streak were by 3 points at home against the 2-7 Chiefs, and 2 points vs. the 4-5 Jets. The math shows the Jags’ last three wins have come by a total of 8 points against teams with a combined record of 7-20! BILLS +9, Score: Bills 21-Jaguars 24 (2 units)

KC +10: since the dogs have been barking lately, i'll jump on the train, especially with DD lines. I'm looking for a backdoor cover from Cassel at home. Score: Chiefs 14-Steelers 21 (1 unit)

ATL +6.5: The g-men are still getting respect based on their reputation. The teams are more evenly matched than what the public perception is, so take the points. I'd lay more units it weren't for Michael Turner's injury. Score Falcons 28-Giants 24 (2 units).

CHI +3: grab the 3 while its there with the lowest juice possible. Everyone and his mother is on the Eagles mainly because of Cutler's meltdown last week as he 'forced' the niners to win despite themselves. The Eagles always struggle in the windy city. Score: Eagles 21-Bears 27 (2 units)

SF +6.5: You may want to wait to see if you can get +7, but it will probably be a low scoring, tight game, meaning take the niners and the points. Although SF has not been impressive in their wins, the Pack has not shown dominance either, expect a close game. Score: Packers 20-Forty-Niners 21 (3 units).

Seahawks +11: the Hawks may win this outright if they don't shoot themselved in the foot first. While the Vikings are the better team, laying DD is too much this late in the season, especially considering the late season fade of the old man at QB, this may be the weekend it starts. Score: Seahawks 21-Vikings 28 (3 units).

BAL pk: will keep fading the Colts, especially with Ravens at home. The line is pretty shady, seems like Vegas is begging for action on the Colts and the public is obliging. While i like Peyton in general, i'll take the Ravens and Ray Lewis at home. Some of Manning's tosses last week were wounded ducks to wide open receivers, i see the Baltimore D getting into his head here too. Score: Ravens 21-Colts 18 (4 units).

WAS +11: more double digit dogs this late in the season is hard to swallow. Although i don't trust the deadskins, they always seem to play the Boys close, so i'll take the points in this divisional game. Score: Cowboys 24-Redskins 18 (3 units).

Leans:
NO -11.5
NE -10
CIN -9.5
TEN +4.5
Ten/HOU OVER
KC/PIT OVER
SF/GB Over
SEA/MIN OVER

LEROY'S CONTEST PICKS - Week 10

23-22-0

Broncos -3.5
Falcons -1.5
Patriots +2.5
Saints -13.5
Cowboys -2.5

ADDED GAMES - WEEK 10, Nov. 15, 2009

NYJ -6.5: the Jets are the better team. Rex Ryan had 2 weeks to prepare for this game, the Pass D is the Jet's strength where the Jags are one of the worst, which means Sanchez will not be throwing any INTs. I'll take the Jets coming off a bye. Score Jets 33 - Jaguars 10 (4 units).

TEN -9.5: Vince Young has won 2 in a row and i'm jumping on the bandwagon along with the public money. The Titans are on a roll which has caused an inflated line (2 weeks ago it would've been -3). Score: Titans 28 - Bills 14 (2 units).

PHI +1: in the wake of their loss to Dallas, their fans are calling for Reid's head and McNabb trade. Facing adversity has caused them to win. Reid's success on the west coast (ignoring the loss to the lowly Raiders) and the fact that the Bolts aren't as good as their record would indicate, i'll take Philly on the westcoast road. (Score: Eagles 33 - Chargers 21 (4 units).

LEANS:
MIN
KC
ARI
BAL
OAK/KC Under

NCAAF Sat. Nov. 14, 2009

No Writeup, no records, just leans:
Indiana +25.5
Tennessee +5.5
Colorado +5
Stanford +11
Texas A&M +20.5
Nevada -7.5.
Tulane +2.5
Utah +20
Wyoming +7
California -3

WEEK 10 NFL WEEKLY PREDICTIONS - EARLY PICKS

YTD: 58-55 (-14.6 units)

SF -3: a short week for both teams, but the east coast team will be traveling to the west. Both teams need the win and the Bears will be huffin and puffin at least to 11:30pm eastern time by the 4th quarter, how awake will they be? Score: 49ers 33 - Bears 18 (4 units)

Cin +7: people are still underestimating Carson Palmer and the Bengals, remember, he's 8-3 lifetime vs the scary Ravens, while the Steelers are not the ravens and they are the better team, the Bungholes seem to play at the level of their opponents, so take the points: Score Bengals 18 - Steelers 21 (2 units)

TB +10: Fins laying 10 doesn't make sense. Fins are 0-6 ATS vs. NFC teams under Tony Sparano. Josh Freeman is a slinger and not afraid to heave it downfield. The Fins are not a high powered offense, but will pound it out on the ground, plus they may be flat after their emotional loss to the Pats last week, i'll take the Bucs with the points. Score: Buccaneers 21 - Dolphins 18 (4 units)

NE +3: Colts are not as good as their undefeated record would seem, they've been losing ATS, which is all that we care about (unless of course you're a fan), this is a big rivalry game and Billicek is always ready for Manning. While Dungy was an equal opponent, the 1st yr Indy coach doesn't match up. Score: Patriots 33 - Colts 28 (2 units).

NO 13.5: i just can't bring my self to bet a ram DD dog vs an elite team. The only question is whether the Saints will be flat or focused and can Stephen Jackson/Bulger keep Brees off the field to stay within 2 TDs? My answer is no. Score: Saints 48 - Rams 9 (3 units).

SF/CHI OVER 43.5 (3 units)

(NOTE: remember, changing lines means changing bets)

Leroy's Pro Challenge Contest Picks

Here's my Leroy's NFL Pro Challenge Contest Play:
PACKERS -9.5
CARDS +2.5
49ERS -3.5
UN HOU/IND 48.5
UN SEA/DET 42.5
21-19-0 (6th place with about 30 others

I'm playin this parlay tomorrow:
Arizona +3
Texans +9
Atlanta -9
San Fransisco -4
KC/JAX UNDER 41.5

ADDED Games/Plays - NFL Weekly Predictions - Nov. 8, 2009

Cin +3: This game will be close, if the public pounds the Ravens (the perception is they have revenge on their mind), you may want to consider the Bungholes who will be getting value if the public hits Balti hard, and Carson Palmer & “85” could easily keep them within reach. Wait till gametime to see if it reaches 3.5. Score: Ravens 20 – Bengals 18 (1 unit).

HOU +9: The line opened at 10 but quickly went down to as low as 8.5. The perception is that the Texans are similar to the niners who covered the spread vs. the heavily favored Colts last week. The public is known to back Peyton at whatever the price, you may want to see if the line goes back to 10 with the public bets Sunday morning before pulling the trigger, but 8.5 or better will still be a play. Score: Colts 18-Texans 14 (4 units).

ARI +3: the line has held steady, but the juice has switched from the Bears to the Cardinals as the early betting support has been for the Cards. The squares will be on the home team at Soldier Field with possible weather issues. With Boldin out, I still think Arizona is the better team. Remember, they did beat NYG several weeks ago. Score: Bears 21-Cardinals 24 (1 unit)

YTD 54-49 (-12.6 units)

WEEK 9 - Nov 8, 2009 NFL Predictions

TB +10: Some teams are scary when they’re double digit dogs, especially home dogs that bite, remember the Raider game vs. Eagles. Consider that the Pack has beaten the DD dogs handily (Rams by 19. Lions by 26 and Brownies by 28). The Buccs are dead last in most power rankings. So what makes this weekend different? For one, rookie Josh Freeman, starting at QB, was impressive in training camp, second, reports that Aaron Rodgers and Driver are nursing injuries, all smell of an upset…at least ATS. Because its the terrible Buccs, i'll only slap down .5 units. Score: Packers 21-Buccaneers 14 (.5 unit).

SF -4: line opened at -5.5 and now down to -4, even tho the public is pounding the niners. Something fishy is brewing, could be a ‘let-down’ game for the niners after their close loss to the Colts last week. Stopping the run is the 49ers' strength, ranking 2nd by allowing 84.9 YPG. The niner’s rushing D has withstood Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson and Michael Turner, next up….Chris Johnson. The Titans on the other hand are near the bottom on passing defense, which bodes well for the Davis/Crabtree duo. The Titans seem to be energized with Vince Young. Even so, I’ll go with the new offensive force of smith/davis/crabtree/gore and the rushing D of SF: Score: Titans 14 – 49ers 30 (3 units)

ATL -10: another play against a bad team. Matt Ryan is 8-2 ATS at home. Altho the Birds may have left alot on the field last week vs. the Saints, Campbell and his terrible O-line will need more than a bye to keep pace with Atlanta. Score: Falcons 48-Redskins 6 (4 units).

DET +10: the good teams can cover DD spreads, the so-so teams like the Seahawks, who just released Edgerrin James this week are not your typical NFL juggernaut, at least not enough to lay DD points. The Lions have their top receiver back (Calvin Johnson) and still have a pulse. While they may not win, they have a good chance of covering the spread. Score: Lions 14-Seahawks 21 (2 units).

NO -14: Last week the Panthers won on the ground (270 yds) with only 85 yds in passing. To hang with the Saints, Delhomme will have to be heaving the ball downfield, you know what that means? In addition, the Panthers could be in ‘let-down’ mode after their unexpected win over the Cards last week. Quality teams have been laying DD points against bad teams all season, so why buck the trend. Score: Saints 56-Panthers 14 (4 units).

CAR/NO OVER (1 unit):

HOU/IND UNDER (2 units)

DET/SEA UNDER (2 units)

PHI -3: The Eagles seem to own the Boys at home. Score: Eagles 28-Cowboys 21 (5 units)

Leans:
Baltimore -3 (Ravens 24-Bengals 18)
Jacksonville -6.5 (Jaguars 24-Chiefs 14)
Miami +10.5 (Dolphins 21-Patriots 27)
Cardinals +2.5 (Bears 21-Cardinals 24)
Houston +9.5 (Colts 18-Texans 14)
San Diego +4.5 (Chargers 33-Giants 27)

NCAAF Sat games - Nov. 7, 2009

No Write-ups, No Records, just leans & plays:
TOP 7:
WISCONSIN -10.5
CALIFORNIA -7.5
NAVY +10.5
OKLAHOMA -5.5
OREGON -6.5
OKLAHOMA STATE -7.5
HOUSTON +1.5

LEANS ONLY
Pittsburgh -21.5
Kansas -2.5
Wyoming +13
Washington +4
Duke +10
Arizona State +10
Colorado State +1
San Jose State +14