LEROY's Pro-Challenge Contest-Week 17 Picks

Yah!!, i'm tied for 7th in the Leroy's Contest with 47 points... no chance to take the lead with one week left, but i'm in the chips as long as i don't whiff...lol


Anyway, here are my Week 17 Leroy Contest Picks: [edit: i went to the kiosk and booted the Falcons and Lions, mainly because Atlanta was laying to many points even tho their motivation was far greater than the Bucs and i doubt the Lions can win at Lambaue, even without Rogers, the 2nd string QB can still move the ball].

FINAL WEEK 17 PICKS
KC +3.5 **WINNER**
HOU +2.5 **WINNER**
IND +3.5 LOSS
CAR +8.5 LOSS
SF/STL UNDER 35.5 LOSS

by the time i pull the trigger at the KIOSK, i might sneak in the STL +10.5, but i'm not sure which bet it would replace...hmmmm? [edit: i chose KC mainly because of Orton in a revenge situation and he'd love to burn Denver here. Regarding INDY, the players and coaches are in football playing mode, unlike the suits up in the box or fanbase longing for Luck...some of INDY's key players are playing their last game and you won't see THEM laying down.]

WEEK 17 NFL PICKS - JANUARY 1, 2012

YTD: NFL 55-54-2 (-8.5U)
WAS + 10 (1u) - both teams are out of the playoffs with nothing to play for. the double digits should cover a team that may be somewhat deflated after last weeks loss.  While the Eagles may win, i'm bettin they don't cover. SCORE: Redskins 18-Eagles 24 LOSS

DET -3.5 (1u) - the Pack has nothing to play for and with Rogers hurting his hand in the first half last week, i'm expecting an early exist. The Lions, meanwhile, are still motivated to get better seeding and they did outgain Green Bay (409-349) on Thanksgiving Day, i'll take the more motivated team. SCORE: Lions 28-Packers 24. LOSS

HOU +3.5 (.5u) - The Titans are fighting for a spot in the postseason, but this does not look like a playoff-caliber squad. They haven’t claimed a victory over a team with a winning record since September. Neither offense is good. The Houston D is solid and the Titans D is passable.The better play may be the UNDER.  Although Houston does not need the win, they will have Wade Phillips back on the sidelines this week as well as Andre Johnson. SCORE: Titans 15-Texans 24. **WINNER**

BAL  -1.5 (1u) - A Raven loss will mean they'll be on the road in the playoffs where they have been having troubles, so there'll be plenty motivation to win. I'll fade the Bungles just as their fans have and besides they're not as good as their record indicates. SCORE: Ravens 24-Bengals 21. **WINNER**

IND +4 (1u) - while it may be in the best interest to drop some balls on purpose, the Colts have already shown the desire to win, even meaningless games. The suck for luck bias is probably driving the line higher than normal. SCORE: Colts 17-Jaguars 15. LOSS

MIA -1.5 (1u) - the Jets are undervalued coming off an embarrassing game, and the Fins are overvalued after nearly knocking off the Pats. The Fins have played similar teams that the Jets have played and played them better.  With Sparano gone, the team seems more motivated too. I'll take the Fins in this spot, not to mention the opportunity to knock one of their rivals out of the playoff picture. SCORE: Jets 18 - Dolphins 21. **WINNER**

SD +2.5 (1u) - Last year, the Bolts choked against the Bengals in a must-win in Week 16 and were thus eliminated from the playoffs. That didn't stop them from beating up on the Broncos in week 17...hmmm, maybe i'll bet the Bolts. **WINNER**

STL +10.5 (1.5u) - the hapless Rams will be facing Niner scrubs in the 4th quarter...ie, that means the backdoor will be wide open.  I'm going with the angle where "if over 80% of the bettors are on the Road favorite…always go with the double digit home dog". The Rams D is much better than many people give them credit for. They usually hold on for 3 quarters before they collapse. SCORE: Forty-Niners 18 - Rams 14 **WINNER**

FINISHED REGULAR SEASON 60-57-2 (-6.9 units)

WEEK 16 NFL PICKS

YTD: NFL 51-52-2 (-10U)
MIA +9.5 (2u) - what does reverse line movement mean? The public is pounding New England, yet the line dropped from -10.5 to -9.5. That can only mean sharp money is coming in on the Fins, who am i to argue against destiny?  SCORE: Dolphins 28-Patriots 35. **WINNER**

IND +6  - playing the "swagger" theory on this one, even tho I'm concerned with Wade Phillips back on the sidelines for Houston. SCORE: Texans 21-Colts 17. **WINNER** I won't count in my ytd record since i posted too late, but i did post this in my Covers.com post.

DEN -2.5 (1.5u) - another coach who seems to have lost the locker room late in the season. LOSS

CAR -7.5 (1u) - a fade the Buccaneer play, the coach seems to have lost the locker room. SCORE: **WINNER**

CLE +13.5 (1u) - I like the following stat: Ravens are 0-2 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season, while the Browns are 5-4 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points the last two-plus seasons. I'll take the double digits. **WINNER**

STL +15.5 (1.5u) - the Steelers should win, but with a gimpy Ben being taken out 2nd half, the Rams should cover. Surely they must know its more important for a healthy Rothlesberger for the playoffs, i'm just sayin. SCORE: RAMS 10-Steelers 21 LOSS

SF -2.5 (1u) **GAMEDAY SWITCH** - SEA +2.5 (1u) - Seachickens fightin for wild card spot, niners already in, altho HA would be nice rather than the New Orleans' dome. Marshawn Lynch has been runnin in beast mode lately too.  SCORE: Forty-niners 18-Seawhawks 21. **WINNER**

NCAAB ytd: 8-9-0 (-.05u)

NCAAF
So. Miss -8.5 (.5u) - Wolf Pack D has struggled against good offenses all year. SMSt balanced attack will control the game and Reno will finish the year without a win against a top team. The 5,000+ mile trip and distractions of the beaches, Pearl Harbor and short-timer Coach shouldn't be enough to overcome the mismatch. SCORE: Wolf Pack 28 - Golden Eagles 44/ LOSS

ncaab

TCU +7 (.5u)

(. my ytd record caught up later...)

Leroy's Pro Challenge NFL PICKS for WEEK 15

LEROY'S PICKS as i leave the House, i'll edit if i change my mind when i get to the kiosk:

CIN -6.5
TEN -6.5
DET -1.5
ARI -6.5
NE/DEN Over 45.5
FINAL PICKs

Leans
GB
NYG
CHI
IND
and
BUF

WEEK 15 NFL PICKS

TB +7 (1u) - I'm goin against the grain on this one....I'm bettin on the home dog trend where the public is over 80% on the road favorite (13-6 ATS this season and 55% since 2002). Also bettin Boys are in a look-ahead mode to divisional battles with Philly/NYG. The Buccs 7 game skid (altho they did cover vs. the Packers during this SU skid) concerns me but considering the Boys are 1-6 ATS during that same time period, i'll bet the dog.  I'll wait til gametime to pull the trigger to see if i can get the hook.  SCORE: Cowboys 24 - Buccaneers 21. Loss - a team playing for something vs a team playing for nothing...lesson learned.

HOU -6.5 (1u) - if the public wasn't enamoured with Jesus out in Denver, they'd be Yatesowing instead of Tebowing. Rookie QB Yates' winning 4th qtr drives are not receiving national media attention, perhaps he needs to start praying to the Poker Gods… I'm not sayin…just sayin.  Houston's #1 defense (w/o Wade Phillips on the sideline) will be putting Cam & the Panthers to the test. SCORE: Panthers 17 - Texans 35

CLE Cle +7.5 (1u) -2 equally bad teams with QB issues, i'll take the points.  With McCoy out, i'll wait til gametime to get the higher number. SCORE: Browns 14 - Cardinals 18
GB -14.5 (2u) - The chiefs will be lucky to score 10 pts, their coach just got fired, they're 31st in pts/gm, 3rd stringer Orton will be at QB with a bum finger and if he falters, 4th stinger Stanzi will get the call. KC's hope for a backdoor cover seems dim....unless, of course McCarthy starts resting starters in preparation for the playoffs...just sayin.... SCORE: Packers 35 - Chiefs 10.

nyg -7.5 (1u) - bettin that the Skins are in a letdown mode after they left everything on the field in the Patriot game last week and coming up losers.  Even tho the gman are divisional foes, I see a let down. SCORE: Redskins 18 - Giants 28

CIN -6.5 (1.5 u)  Kellen Clemens will most likely start (signed only last week). The hapless Rams can't catch a break, they even lost out on the suck for Luck contest. SCORE: Bengals 24 - Rams 9

NE/DEN OVER 45.5

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 14, 2011 SPORTS PICKS

NCAAB ytd: 8-7-0 (+.95u)
UNLV -16.5 (.5u)

TUESDAY December 13, 2011 SPORTS PICKS

Wisconsin  -10 (.5u) loss
San Diego  +10 (.5u) **WINNER**
Oregon St  -16.5 (.5u) **WINNER**

TUESDAY DECEMBER 13, 2011 SPORTS PICKS

NCAAB 6-6-0 (+1u)
San Diego +10 (.5u)
Wisconsin -10 (.5u)

December 11, 2011 sports picks

YTD: NFL 45-44-2 (-6.73U)

HOU +3 (1u) -wrong team favored, HOU wins SU The Bengals: 1-5 vs. Quality Opponents with winning records.  Houston's record is 9-3..I'm just sayin… Texans strong play along the line of scrimmage and +12 turnover margin makes them the fav. SCORE Texans 24-Bengals 20

ATL -2.5 (1u) -The Falcon's #3 run defense should put the brakes on Cam Newton's1-dimensional attack.  SCORE: Falcons 27-Panthers 21

DAL -4.5 (1u) - embarrassed by clock management last week, i see the Boys coming out swinging at home. Score: Giants 24-Cowboys 30

OAK +11.5 (Leroy"s) (1u) - being short-stacked, I'm taking the least liked dog on the board for my tournament life (it was either Oakland or Indy), but also because the Pack D will keep the game close…ie, let the Raiders score within the number. Oakland is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season. Also i'm hopin the "clinched" playoff winners will ease up a little and start to heal their starters...at least in the 2nd half or 4th qtrs. I almost went with Arizona over Niners for that reason, but i'm goin all-in with da raiders. SCORE: Raiders 21-Packers 30

ARI +5 (1u) - let down spot for the niners altho they are playing for home field.

KC +10.5 (1u) - too many points to lay for Sanchez and the Jets, i'll go with the Chiefs to cover.

IND +16.5 (1u) - too many pts to lay by the Ravens.

CHI/DEN OVER 35.5 (1.5 units)

NCAAB 3-5-0 (-.7u)
Hawaii -10.5 (.5u)
E Washington +4 (1u)
New Mexico St -6 (1u)

LEROY'S CONTEST PICKS - PRO CHALLENGE - WEEK 14

IND +16.5
ATL -2.5
DAL -3.5
HOU +2.5
CHI/DEN OVER 35.5

current standing:    WINS WEEKLY LOSS      WINS  LOSS
ITSNOTMEITSU .      3               2                38        27
(tied for 7th with a bunch others)

december 10, 2011 sports picks

NCAAB 2-4-0 (-1.1u)
CS Northridge +8 (1u) - Pepperdine is 3-8 ATS vs Big West.
Toledo -6 (.5u)

NCAAF
Navy -7 (1.5u)
Army/Navy UNDEr 55.5 (1u)

WEEK 14 NFL LEANS

DAL -3.5
IND +16.5
ATL -2.5

OAK +11.5
HOU +2.5
CHI/DEN OVER 35.5

Friday December 9, 2011 Sports Picks

NCAAB 2-0-0 (+.9u)
Richmond +4 (.5u)
Florida -26 (.5u)
Colorado -5 (.5u)
Rider/FLO UNDER 154.5 (.5u)

Week 13 picks (and Leroy's Picks exc. Patriots) NFL

YTD: NFL 42-41-2 (-6.46U)
NE -20 (1unit) - Upon further review, i don't see the Colts scoring more than 12 points while the Pats will be at least in the 30s if not 40s.  I'm pulling the trigger on the Pats, especially after seeing the line come down to 20 not to mention Orlovsky at the helm for Colts in place of Painter.  SCORE: Colts 12 - Patriots 44.

BAL +6.5 (.5u) - three times this year, the Ravens have come off a big win and tossed a dud the following week, just ask the Titans, Jaguars, and lowly Seahawks.  Now comes a divisional foe to fill the same spot.  I'm bettin with Ray Lewis back, that they keep their swagger from last week's win. SCORE: Browns 6 - Ravens 18

SF -13 (1.5units) - the Rams have tanked it. St. Louis has a whopping 9 corner backs on IR since the beginning of the season. Smith should have a field day. My only concern is the niner scrubs in the 4th quarter allowing a backdoor cover....and hoping they don't have a let-down anti-swagger mojo going on after their defeat to Baltimore last week. I'm on life-support for this contest and my tournament life is in Harbough's/Smith's/Gore's hands. SCORE: Rams 9 - Forty-Niners 27

OAK/MIA Under 42.5 (1u) - playin Fins Under trend and their good rushing defense to keep the Raiders in check.

HOU +1 (1u) - Texans running game should help the 3rd string QB keep the game close, enough for SU win.  Falcons 17 - Texans 24.

DAL -4.5 (1u) - more of an anti-Cardinal play.  I'm smelling a blowout of epic proportions. Score Cowboys 33 - Cardinals 14

WEEK 13 LEans

week 13 leans:
Oak/Mia UNDER
NE
BAL
SF
dal
mia
den

WEEK 12 NFL PARLAY

PARLAY - 3 teamer
oak/chi UNDER 41.5
Hou/Jac UNDER 37
Cle/Cin UNDER 37.5
new/used/rookie QBs spell a whole lot of runnin and not a whole lot scoring...i'm just saying.  The starting QBs are all gone but not forgotton.

WEEK 12 PICKS NOVEMBER 27, 2011 NFL PICKS

WEEK 12 PICKS NOVEMBER 27, 2011 NFL PICKS
YTD: NFL 38-36-2 (-6U)

PIT -10.5 (1u) - Yeah a big number, but with the rested and healthier-off-the-bye Steelers D vs Tyler Palko and the hapless Chiefs, not to mention a surging Ben Roethlisberger coming off a bye, i'm smelling a blow-out of epic proportions...well covering the spread anyway. SCORE: Chiefs 14 - Steelers 35.

CAR -3.5 (1u) - Carolina can score and the Colts can’t stop anyone from scoring. Altho this is the Colts’ best chance at a win so far, they won't be able to stop Newton. SCORE: Panthers 33 - Colts 17

HOU -3.5 (1.5u) - Houston coming off of a bye, giving a very good defense extra time to prepare for an extremely weak offense. Altho Shaub's out, i'm looking for the veteran Leinart to pick the Jag D apart. SCORE: Texans 21 - Jaguars 9

NYJ -9 (1.5u) - With RB Fred Jackson out, the Bills are dead in the water. Sanchez's rift with the coach with backup taking extra reps this weak, should be incentive enough for a sanchez-bounce back game, at least that's my bet. SCORE: Bills 9 - Jets 24.

CIN -9 (.5u) - Cincy needs the win to keep pace in the AFC north. Andy Dalton looks like he belongs in the league while the Browns anemic offense has made them a good "Under" bet. SCORE Browns 9 - Bengals 21.

ATL -9.5 (1u) - Adrian Peterson is out going against the 4th ranked running def. in Atlanta and with the Falcon's well-known home edge, i'll lay the points here...fading the rookie QB and siding with the prolific Falcon QB. What concerns me is the Viking pass rush. Going all-in with the Falcons for my tournament life again. SCORE: Vikings 17 - Falcons 35.

SF +3.5 (1u) LOSS
DET +7 (1u) LOSS
MIA/DAL UNDER (1.5u) **WINNER**

NCAAF Saturday November 26, 2011 picks

NCAAF YTD: 48-48-0 (+3.69u) - all half unit bets:
Stanford -6.5
So Carolina -4
Nevada+1
Boise St -31.5
Maryland +11.5
Texas Tech +12.5
Hawaii -16.5

WEEK 12 Leans

SEA-3.5
NE -3
**HOU -4**
**NYJ**
**PIT**
CHI +4.5
SD -6
**hou/jac under 37.5**
**cle/cin under 37.5**
CHI/OAK under 41.5
ARI/STL under ??

The following are the only 5 I've pulled the trigger on so far, i'm liking the above games too....i'll pick at least 3 more by Saturday.
SF +3.5 (1u)
DET +7 (1u)
MIA/DAL UNDER (1.5u)

ATL -9.5 (1u) - Adrian Peterson is out going against the 4th ranked running def. in Atlanta and with the Falcon's well-known home edge, i'll lay the points here...fading the rookie QB and siding with the prolific Falcon QB.  What concerns me is the Viking pass rush. Going all-in with the Falcons for my tournament life again.  SCORE: Vikings 17 - Falcons 35.

CAR -3.5 (1u) - Carolina can score and the Colts can’t stop anyone from scoring. Altho this is the Colts’ best chance at a win so far, they won't be able to stop Newton.  SCORE: Panthers 33 - Colts 17

LEROY's PRO CHALLENGE CONTEST PICKS -Week 11

ITSNOTMEITSU 4-1-0/LAST WEEK 30-20/OVERALL 30.0TOTAL PTS

Final Picks for Week 11
CHI -3.5 **WINNER**
DAL -7.5 LOSS
JAC/CLE UNDER 34.5 **WINNER**
GB -14.5 LOSS
SF -9.5 **WINNER**

NCAAF Picks for NOVEMBER 19, 2011

NCAAF YTD: 46-43-0 (+3.47u) - all half unit bets except where noted:
USC +14.5 **WINNER**
Houston -19.5 (2.5units) **WINNER**
Navy -6 LOSS
Utah -3.5 LOSS
Maryland +10 LOSS
Stanford -17.5 LOSS
Arizona St -10 LOSS
(NCAAF YTD: 48-48-0 (+3.69U)

WEEK 10 NFL PICKS - SUNDAY-MONDAY, NOV. 13/14, 2011

NFL 32-33-2 (-6.1U)

STL/CLE UNDER 37 (.5u) - I'm leanin Browns, but the best play may be the UNDER. This game reminds me of the Seahawk - Browns game, another low scoring affair.

SF -3.5 (1u) - Will there be a let-down by the Niners after their great road-run? Its probably not a huge value play one way or the other. Stronger need to win on the giants, the g-men have a good road record too, the niners may be the better team as shown in the line, i'm not sure there will be a let down by sf. Have the niners over-performed? hmmm, i'm bettin they're the real deal. Score: Giants 14 - Forty-Niners 33.

The G-men could very well win. Their road record is something like 14-6 ATS, that's got to be respected. I just think the Niner Defense/special teams will continue to carry this team. For example 10 of their last 46 drives started in enemy territory. Their other stat i like is their turnover, one of the lowest in the NFL (7). As long as A.Smith continues to protect the ball, i'll lay some money on SF, maybe not as much as by good buddy the Vue. Oh, my other concern is Gores ankle, he's been nursing it all week... GL

ARI +14 (1u) - The 3-5 dream team is not a doudle-digit winner, now that the line has reached the magic number of 14, i'll take the points. Also thee Kolb backup is not that much of a downgrade on Winenunt's team. Score: Eagles 21-Cardinals 14.

TB +3.5 (.5u) - tons of dog value, a must win for Tampa with Green Bay on deck, a win over Houston is a must. 3 of the Texans' wins are counterfeit (Cle, Jac, & maybe Titans). They're a live dog. Score: Texans 17 - Buccaneers 24.

NYJ +1 (1u) - i may wait till sunday to pull the trigger to see if the public pushes the line to 3. Score: Patriots 24 - Jets 27,

SEA +6.5 (1u) - situational play, Balti plays up or down to the level of their competition, the 12th man in seattle, let down game for the ravens as well as a sandwich game, they're .500 team on the road, cross country...they shot their load in Pittsburg...how do they get up to play the lowly Seahawks? Score: Raven 18-Seawawks 21.

MIN +13 (1u) - How did the Vikes earn almost 2 TDs in 3 weeks, oh, it’s the HA that gave them 3 extra points. The last line was 10 and MINNY covered sneaking thru the backdoor. I'm predicting another backdoor ATS win. Score: Vikings 21-Packers 33

ATL -1 (1.5u) - The Saints cant stop the run, dead last against it. Michael Turner should pick up where he left off last week. The Falcons appear to be surging while the Saints New Orleans have dropped their last 2 road games and failed to cover three in a row away from home. With Tracy Porter questionable, i'll be fading New Orleans. Score: Saints 24 - Falcons 34.

KC -3.5 (1u)

chi -2.5 (1u)

Leroy's Pro Challenge Week 10 Picks

Pit -3.5
Buf +5.5
MIN +13.5
STL +2.5
JAC -3.5
SEA +6.5 (went to the kiosk and scratched Buf and added Sea)

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 12, 2011 NCAAF PICKS

NCAAF YTD: 43-39-0 (+5.16u) - all half unit bets:
Kentucky +13.5
Idaho +21
Boise State -15
Penn State +3.5
Oklahoma St
Wisconsin -27
UL-Lafayette +11

good luck