Ouch!, yesterday hurt bad. The live dogs were brutally killed. Tonite, we need to make a comeback.
Carolina +9 - Carolina lost again last week but was competitive. They out gained Atlanta 6.6yppl to 5.8yppl, out rushing Atlanta 5.8ypr to 4.1ypr. They were out passed 8.1yps to 7.0yps. Everything is pointing to take a shot at Carolina with the points. The TWO issues I have is, the public is also pounding on this team at 91% as we speak and i don't trust Jake. but on the other hand, i trust Romo less. Barber is out (or at least hurt) and the Panthers have a good running tandem so i'll go with the UNDER 48.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Saturday, September 26, 2009
ADDEd Games Sept. 27, 2009 NFL PICKS
ATL +4 - Brady's banged up, the Pat D is not what it used to be and Matt Ryan's on a roll.
HOU -4: The Jags are going no where fast, the Texans have owned the Jags lately.
TEN +3 - a good team that's desperate should win in this spot.
ARI -2.5 - Peyton is good in prime time, but the Colts will not be able to keep up with the Cardinal WRs.
HOU -4: The Jags are going no where fast, the Texans have owned the Jags lately.
TEN +3 - a good team that's desperate should win in this spot.
ARI -2.5 - Peyton is good in prime time, but the Colts will not be able to keep up with the Cardinal WRs.
SEPT 27, 2009 NFL FREE PICKS
St. Louis +7 The Rams are lousy this year and are stinking up the league. The public is pounding the Pack. So why do i like the Rams in this spot (besides being a home dog)? I don't think the Rams are as bad as people think, and while they may lose at home, they will cover.
Tampa Bay +7
The home dogs will be out in force Sunday. The g-men have some injury issues and the Bucs are in desperation mode. A loss will make the rest of their season irrelevant. The high number and high public backing of the g-men makes me want to pick the Buccs to win, or at least cover.
Cleveland +13.5
"LOOK AHEAD ALERT", the ravens are looking to next week's game with the Patriots. No one is taking the Browns seriously. There's no doubt the Ravens are the better team, but can they cover in a 'let down' and 'look ahead' game. Wait to kickoff to see if you can get the key number 14, as the public pounds the favorite.
San Francisco +7 **updated number from Leroy's**
The Niners are still not getting respect, which is good for the early season bettors. Holding Peterson to 3 yards the last time they met is still a bad taste in AP's mouth. What scares me is his quote that this game will be his redemption. The sharps are hoping the squares will hop on the Favre bandwagon, wait to bet just before kickoff to see if the key number turns 7.
Buffalo +6
Another "wait till kickoff bet" to see if the squares drive up the points for the home dogs. The Saint train is coming to town with the Brees high flying offense. I also like the Over but will wait to see what the weather is doing Sunday. For now this is just too many points for the home dog that nearly beat the Pats on the road.
Miami +6
After being debacled by the dreadful two minute offense last week, i swore not to bet the Fins again.....so here i am taking them when they've become a 'fade bet" this season? The Bolts and LT are banged up and look like a typical Norv Turner disorganized team. Without the injured Jamal Williams, how can they slow the Fin wildcats? So this is more of an anti-bolt bet rather than a pro-Fin bet.
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Oakland +2 - another home dog that i hate, especially with a QB that can't hit the broad side of a barn. The Broncos QB is not much better and they only beat the Bungholes on a fluke play and beat a lousy Brown team. Traveling to the west coast
OVER cowboys/panthers 46 - jumped on this now as it may get to 48 by kickoff. carolina's defense has looked horrific the first 2 weeks, and the boys will be amped to avenge the giants loss. carolina has the offensive weapons to put up several td's on an avg dallas defense. if im up big going into this game, i may add more. This may be the play of the week.
Leans for now:
TITANS +3 - jets have a big time letdown off the NE win, playing a desperate titans team
UNDER jets 37 - 2 excellent defenses. this total is great value at 37, any lower...stay away.
TEXANS -3.5 - the JAGS are a fade bet
UNDER vikings/49ers 40.5
seahawks +2
OVER saints 52.5 - buffalo's new no huddle offense is looking good while their defense is not keeping up, the weather is the only question mark.
Tampa Bay +7
The home dogs will be out in force Sunday. The g-men have some injury issues and the Bucs are in desperation mode. A loss will make the rest of their season irrelevant. The high number and high public backing of the g-men makes me want to pick the Buccs to win, or at least cover.
Cleveland +13.5
"LOOK AHEAD ALERT", the ravens are looking to next week's game with the Patriots. No one is taking the Browns seriously. There's no doubt the Ravens are the better team, but can they cover in a 'let down' and 'look ahead' game. Wait to kickoff to see if you can get the key number 14, as the public pounds the favorite.
San Francisco +7 **updated number from Leroy's**
The Niners are still not getting respect, which is good for the early season bettors. Holding Peterson to 3 yards the last time they met is still a bad taste in AP's mouth. What scares me is his quote that this game will be his redemption. The sharps are hoping the squares will hop on the Favre bandwagon, wait to bet just before kickoff to see if the key number turns 7.
Buffalo +6
Another "wait till kickoff bet" to see if the squares drive up the points for the home dogs. The Saint train is coming to town with the Brees high flying offense. I also like the Over but will wait to see what the weather is doing Sunday. For now this is just too many points for the home dog that nearly beat the Pats on the road.
Miami +6
After being debacled by the dreadful two minute offense last week, i swore not to bet the Fins again.....so here i am taking them when they've become a 'fade bet" this season? The Bolts and LT are banged up and look like a typical Norv Turner disorganized team. Without the injured Jamal Williams, how can they slow the Fin wildcats? So this is more of an anti-bolt bet rather than a pro-Fin bet.
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Oakland +2 - another home dog that i hate, especially with a QB that can't hit the broad side of a barn. The Broncos QB is not much better and they only beat the Bungholes on a fluke play and beat a lousy Brown team. Traveling to the west coast
OVER cowboys/panthers 46 - jumped on this now as it may get to 48 by kickoff. carolina's defense has looked horrific the first 2 weeks, and the boys will be amped to avenge the giants loss. carolina has the offensive weapons to put up several td's on an avg dallas defense. if im up big going into this game, i may add more. This may be the play of the week.
Leans for now:
TITANS +3 - jets have a big time letdown off the NE win, playing a desperate titans team
UNDER jets 37 - 2 excellent defenses. this total is great value at 37, any lower...stay away.
TEXANS -3.5 - the JAGS are a fade bet
UNDER vikings/49ers 40.5
seahawks +2
OVER saints 52.5 - buffalo's new no huddle offense is looking good while their defense is not keeping up, the weather is the only question mark.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Added Games Sept. 20, 2009
TB +4.5: The public is pounding the Bills and they ARE the better team, but with the emotional loss against the Pats, the Bills will most likely be flat this week. Will Trent be finding more receivers downfield like TO is wanting?
CHI +3: without Troy, the Steeler D is not all that imposing, i like home dogs.
MIA +3 - The Underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams,another home dog. I like Manning, but his Sept. record is not all that great.
NYg +3 - I like the g-men to open the new stadium in style, with an outright win. Sorry, no reason, but i don't like the boys in general.
Added Play: MIA ML +150 - expect a poor showing from Colt Offense and an amped up crowd for home MNF.
CHI +3: without Troy, the Steeler D is not all that imposing, i like home dogs.
MIA +3 - The Underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams,another home dog. I like Manning, but his Sept. record is not all that great.
NYg +3 - I like the g-men to open the new stadium in style, with an outright win. Sorry, no reason, but i don't like the boys in general.
Added Play: MIA ML +150 - expect a poor showing from Colt Offense and an amped up crowd for home MNF.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
WEEK 2: Sept. 20, 2009 NFL Picks:
YTD: 12-4-0
NYJ +5 - i like taking the home dog with the points. Brady is not in top form and he looks banged up, the Pat D is not what it used to be without Bruski and others. The thing that scares me is Belichick's record vs. rookie QBs and the recent trash talking of the Jets, but i'll take the Jets anyway: score: Patriots 28-Jets 24.
STL +10 - The Rams are stinking up the league, so why am i picking them? Mainly because of the spread, AND the public is pounding the Skins. It may be too early to judge, but Washington's offense will not be able cover. Score: Rams 18-Redskins 21
OAK +3 - The Raiders appear on a mission, the D-line has been energized by Seymour and they should've won the Bolt game last week outright. Even tho the public is backing the dog in Oakland, the Raiders are a changed team....at least for now. Score: Raiders 21-Chiefs 14
HOU +7 - The public is pounding the Titans. Vegas is wanting you to lay the points with Tennessee, that tells me that the Texans will cover. Score: Texans 24-Titans 28.
SF -1.5 - The way the Hawks shut out St. Louis and after the niners beat last year's NFC Champs, seems to point to an almost pick-em game, i like the change in attitude in SF, billboards are everywhere in SF showing the "I Want Winners" battlecry. That seems to have changed their play too and the game's not at Qwest field, i'll side with Singletary: Score: 49er 24-Seahawks 18.
CAR +6.5 - Delhomme had too many turnovers last week and he'll be protecting the ball more. The two teams are more even than the public's perception after week 1, I look for a close game, meaning the panthers cover: Score: Panthers 21-Falcons 24
CIN +9.5 - Carson Palmer will keep it close. The Bengals dominated Denver and should've won last week, while the Packers barely won. The teams are not as far apart as the line suggests. Score: Bengals 18-Packers 21.
PHI/NO OVER 46 - With the Saint's high flying offense and poor defense, the total will fly over 50 with or without McNabb.
Leans: (i may play these...gameday decision)
NYG
TB
CHI
MIA
STL/WAS Under
NYJ +5 - i like taking the home dog with the points. Brady is not in top form and he looks banged up, the Pat D is not what it used to be without Bruski and others. The thing that scares me is Belichick's record vs. rookie QBs and the recent trash talking of the Jets, but i'll take the Jets anyway: score: Patriots 28-Jets 24.
STL +10 - The Rams are stinking up the league, so why am i picking them? Mainly because of the spread, AND the public is pounding the Skins. It may be too early to judge, but Washington's offense will not be able cover. Score: Rams 18-Redskins 21
OAK +3 - The Raiders appear on a mission, the D-line has been energized by Seymour and they should've won the Bolt game last week outright. Even tho the public is backing the dog in Oakland, the Raiders are a changed team....at least for now. Score: Raiders 21-Chiefs 14
HOU +7 - The public is pounding the Titans. Vegas is wanting you to lay the points with Tennessee, that tells me that the Texans will cover. Score: Texans 24-Titans 28.
SF -1.5 - The way the Hawks shut out St. Louis and after the niners beat last year's NFC Champs, seems to point to an almost pick-em game, i like the change in attitude in SF, billboards are everywhere in SF showing the "I Want Winners" battlecry. That seems to have changed their play too and the game's not at Qwest field, i'll side with Singletary: Score: 49er 24-Seahawks 18.
CAR +6.5 - Delhomme had too many turnovers last week and he'll be protecting the ball more. The two teams are more even than the public's perception after week 1, I look for a close game, meaning the panthers cover: Score: Panthers 21-Falcons 24
CIN +9.5 - Carson Palmer will keep it close. The Bengals dominated Denver and should've won last week, while the Packers barely won. The teams are not as far apart as the line suggests. Score: Bengals 18-Packers 21.
PHI/NO OVER 46 - With the Saint's high flying offense and poor defense, the total will fly over 50 with or without McNabb.
Leans: (i may play these...gameday decision)
NYG
TB
CHI
MIA
STL/WAS Under
Monday, September 14, 2009
MNF 9/14/09 NFL PICKS
BUF +12 - Pats were notorious for losing ATS during Brady's superbowl run.
OAK +10 - going against double digits home underdog doesn't sound appealing...even if it is the hapless Raiders
OAK +10 - going against double digits home underdog doesn't sound appealing...even if it is the hapless Raiders
Thursday, September 10, 2009
WEEK 1 NFL PICKS
Already 2-0-0 going into the weekend:
WEEK 1 Picks:
49ers +6.5: Super Bowl losers suck the following season. Even without a good QB, Singletary will be ‘willing’ the niners to a victory. Niners 24-Cardinals 21.
Texans -4.5 : I like Sanchez too, will he be shining his first NFL start. Texans 31-Jets 21.
Rams +9: upset pick of the week. Bulger should keep within a TD, remember the Seahawks are not THAT good at home openers (4-9-1).
Ravens -13 : Cassel, Thigpen & crew don’t stand a chance vs. Raven defense. I smell a blow out. Baltimore 35-KC 0. Somebody convince me to not take the double digit favorite on opening day.
Packers -3.5: home at Lambeau on opening day. People are liking Cutler, but now for the welcome to the black and blue division.
Cowboys -1: against the worst team in the league (along with Lions & Raiders) the boys should roll over the Bucs. Cowboys 38-Buccaneers 10
WAS +6.5: G-men may be the better team, but with Haynesworth and smash mouth football afoot, expect a close game....meaning the Skins cover.
Jaguars +7.5: Indy is the better team, but I’m looking for the Jags to cover, Colts 21-Jags 18.
Browns +4: the public is pounding the Vikings, smells like a trap game, Browns 21-Vikings 18. I may have a gameday switch or even lay off this one.
Leans for now:
i'll pull the trigger Saturday....the trap games Vikes/Dallas/Bolts seem too easy?? or am i missing something. I also like these UNDERS: CHI/GB un46.5, DET/NO un48.5, NE/BUF un47
WEEK 1 Picks:
49ers +6.5: Super Bowl losers suck the following season. Even without a good QB, Singletary will be ‘willing’ the niners to a victory. Niners 24-Cardinals 21.
Texans -4.5 : I like Sanchez too, will he be shining his first NFL start. Texans 31-Jets 21.
Rams +9: upset pick of the week. Bulger should keep within a TD, remember the Seahawks are not THAT good at home openers (4-9-1).
Ravens -13 : Cassel, Thigpen & crew don’t stand a chance vs. Raven defense. I smell a blow out. Baltimore 35-KC 0. Somebody convince me to not take the double digit favorite on opening day.
Packers -3.5: home at Lambeau on opening day. People are liking Cutler, but now for the welcome to the black and blue division.
Cowboys -1: against the worst team in the league (along with Lions & Raiders) the boys should roll over the Bucs. Cowboys 38-Buccaneers 10
WAS +6.5: G-men may be the better team, but with Haynesworth and smash mouth football afoot, expect a close game....meaning the Skins cover.
Jaguars +7.5: Indy is the better team, but I’m looking for the Jags to cover, Colts 21-Jags 18.
Browns +4: the public is pounding the Vikings, smells like a trap game, Browns 21-Vikings 18. I may have a gameday switch or even lay off this one.
Leans for now:
i'll pull the trigger Saturday....the trap games Vikes/Dallas/Bolts seem too easy?? or am i missing something. I also like these UNDERS: CHI/GB un46.5, DET/NO un48.5, NE/BUF un47
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
OPENING DAY 9/10/09
Looking back now 5 years running, the NFL Thursday Favorite has gone 25-5 ATS. What also is noted is the Superbowl winner is now 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 opening games the following year!!! Favorites were also a winner during opening day last year. Does that mean the Steelers are a lock? Of course not, but all the makings point to it. But people are forgetting that th Titans are an elite team, they'll at least cover. I'll go with TEN +6 and the UNDER 35.
Friday, September 4, 2009
Sept 5, 2009 College Football Picks
Wake Forrest -2.5
Nevada +14.5
Illinois -6.5
Oklahoma -22
Alabama -6.5
CAL -21
LSU -17.5
Georgia +5.5
In vino veritas...
Nevada +14.5
Illinois -6.5
Oklahoma -22
Alabama -6.5
CAL -21
LSU -17.5
Georgia +5.5
In vino veritas...
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
9/3/09 FINAL PRESEASON NFL PICKS
YTD Preseason: 13-7-2
DET +3.5 (4 units)
NYJ/PHI Under 37 (.5 units)
NE +3 (3 units)
BAL +3 (1 unit)
CIN -3.5 (1 unit)
WAS/JAX Under 35 (.5 units)
STL +1 (3 units)
NO -3 (1 unit)
NO/MIA Over 36.5 (.5 units)
CLE/CHI Over 36 (.5 units)
GB +3.5 (1 unit)
GB/TEN Under 36 (.5 units)
SEA -2.5 (3 units)
DET +3.5 (4 units)
NYJ/PHI Under 37 (.5 units)
NE +3 (3 units)
BAL +3 (1 unit)
CIN -3.5 (1 unit)
WAS/JAX Under 35 (.5 units)
STL +1 (3 units)
NO -3 (1 unit)
NO/MIA Over 36.5 (.5 units)
CLE/CHI Over 36 (.5 units)
GB +3.5 (1 unit)
GB/TEN Under 36 (.5 units)
SEA -2.5 (3 units)
9/2/09 Free MLB Picks
CWS Buehrle -145 (2 units)
KC Bannister +145 (1 unit)
LAA Kazmir +117 (1 unit)
DET Porcello -145 (1 unit)
parlay: CHC,PHI,COL,STL,LAD
In vino veritas...
KC Bannister +145 (1 unit)
LAA Kazmir +117 (1 unit)
DET Porcello -145 (1 unit)
parlay: CHC,PHI,COL,STL,LAD
In vino veritas...
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