LEROY's Pro-Challenge Contest-Week 17 Picks

Yah!!, i'm tied for 7th in the Leroy's Contest with 47 points... no chance to take the lead with one week left, but i'm in the chips as long as i don't whiff...lol


Anyway, here are my Week 17 Leroy Contest Picks: [edit: i went to the kiosk and booted the Falcons and Lions, mainly because Atlanta was laying to many points even tho their motivation was far greater than the Bucs and i doubt the Lions can win at Lambaue, even without Rogers, the 2nd string QB can still move the ball].

FINAL WEEK 17 PICKS
KC +3.5 **WINNER**
HOU +2.5 **WINNER**
IND +3.5 LOSS
CAR +8.5 LOSS
SF/STL UNDER 35.5 LOSS

by the time i pull the trigger at the KIOSK, i might sneak in the STL +10.5, but i'm not sure which bet it would replace...hmmmm? [edit: i chose KC mainly because of Orton in a revenge situation and he'd love to burn Denver here. Regarding INDY, the players and coaches are in football playing mode, unlike the suits up in the box or fanbase longing for Luck...some of INDY's key players are playing their last game and you won't see THEM laying down.]

WEEK 17 NFL PICKS - JANUARY 1, 2012

YTD: NFL 55-54-2 (-8.5U)
WAS + 10 (1u) - both teams are out of the playoffs with nothing to play for. the double digits should cover a team that may be somewhat deflated after last weeks loss.  While the Eagles may win, i'm bettin they don't cover. SCORE: Redskins 18-Eagles 24 LOSS

DET -3.5 (1u) - the Pack has nothing to play for and with Rogers hurting his hand in the first half last week, i'm expecting an early exist. The Lions, meanwhile, are still motivated to get better seeding and they did outgain Green Bay (409-349) on Thanksgiving Day, i'll take the more motivated team. SCORE: Lions 28-Packers 24. LOSS

HOU +3.5 (.5u) - The Titans are fighting for a spot in the postseason, but this does not look like a playoff-caliber squad. They haven’t claimed a victory over a team with a winning record since September. Neither offense is good. The Houston D is solid and the Titans D is passable.The better play may be the UNDER.  Although Houston does not need the win, they will have Wade Phillips back on the sidelines this week as well as Andre Johnson. SCORE: Titans 15-Texans 24. **WINNER**

BAL  -1.5 (1u) - A Raven loss will mean they'll be on the road in the playoffs where they have been having troubles, so there'll be plenty motivation to win. I'll fade the Bungles just as their fans have and besides they're not as good as their record indicates. SCORE: Ravens 24-Bengals 21. **WINNER**

IND +4 (1u) - while it may be in the best interest to drop some balls on purpose, the Colts have already shown the desire to win, even meaningless games. The suck for luck bias is probably driving the line higher than normal. SCORE: Colts 17-Jaguars 15. LOSS

MIA -1.5 (1u) - the Jets are undervalued coming off an embarrassing game, and the Fins are overvalued after nearly knocking off the Pats. The Fins have played similar teams that the Jets have played and played them better.  With Sparano gone, the team seems more motivated too. I'll take the Fins in this spot, not to mention the opportunity to knock one of their rivals out of the playoff picture. SCORE: Jets 18 - Dolphins 21. **WINNER**

SD +2.5 (1u) - Last year, the Bolts choked against the Bengals in a must-win in Week 16 and were thus eliminated from the playoffs. That didn't stop them from beating up on the Broncos in week 17...hmmm, maybe i'll bet the Bolts. **WINNER**

STL +10.5 (1.5u) - the hapless Rams will be facing Niner scrubs in the 4th quarter...ie, that means the backdoor will be wide open.  I'm going with the angle where "if over 80% of the bettors are on the Road favorite…always go with the double digit home dog". The Rams D is much better than many people give them credit for. They usually hold on for 3 quarters before they collapse. SCORE: Forty-Niners 18 - Rams 14 **WINNER**

FINISHED REGULAR SEASON 60-57-2 (-6.9 units)

WEEK 16 NFL PICKS

YTD: NFL 51-52-2 (-10U)
MIA +9.5 (2u) - what does reverse line movement mean? The public is pounding New England, yet the line dropped from -10.5 to -9.5. That can only mean sharp money is coming in on the Fins, who am i to argue against destiny?  SCORE: Dolphins 28-Patriots 35. **WINNER**

IND +6  - playing the "swagger" theory on this one, even tho I'm concerned with Wade Phillips back on the sidelines for Houston. SCORE: Texans 21-Colts 17. **WINNER** I won't count in my ytd record since i posted too late, but i did post this in my Covers.com post.

DEN -2.5 (1.5u) - another coach who seems to have lost the locker room late in the season. LOSS

CAR -7.5 (1u) - a fade the Buccaneer play, the coach seems to have lost the locker room. SCORE: **WINNER**

CLE +13.5 (1u) - I like the following stat: Ravens are 0-2 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season, while the Browns are 5-4 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points the last two-plus seasons. I'll take the double digits. **WINNER**

STL +15.5 (1.5u) - the Steelers should win, but with a gimpy Ben being taken out 2nd half, the Rams should cover. Surely they must know its more important for a healthy Rothlesberger for the playoffs, i'm just sayin. SCORE: RAMS 10-Steelers 21 LOSS

SF -2.5 (1u) **GAMEDAY SWITCH** - SEA +2.5 (1u) - Seachickens fightin for wild card spot, niners already in, altho HA would be nice rather than the New Orleans' dome. Marshawn Lynch has been runnin in beast mode lately too.  SCORE: Forty-niners 18-Seawhawks 21. **WINNER**

NCAAB ytd: 8-9-0 (-.05u)

NCAAF
So. Miss -8.5 (.5u) - Wolf Pack D has struggled against good offenses all year. SMSt balanced attack will control the game and Reno will finish the year without a win against a top team. The 5,000+ mile trip and distractions of the beaches, Pearl Harbor and short-timer Coach shouldn't be enough to overcome the mismatch. SCORE: Wolf Pack 28 - Golden Eagles 44/ LOSS

ncaab

TCU +7 (.5u)

(. my ytd record caught up later...)

Leroy's Pro Challenge NFL PICKS for WEEK 15

LEROY'S PICKS as i leave the House, i'll edit if i change my mind when i get to the kiosk:

CIN -6.5
TEN -6.5
DET -1.5
ARI -6.5
NE/DEN Over 45.5
FINAL PICKs

Leans
GB
NYG
CHI
IND
and
BUF

WEEK 15 NFL PICKS

TB +7 (1u) - I'm goin against the grain on this one....I'm bettin on the home dog trend where the public is over 80% on the road favorite (13-6 ATS this season and 55% since 2002). Also bettin Boys are in a look-ahead mode to divisional battles with Philly/NYG. The Buccs 7 game skid (altho they did cover vs. the Packers during this SU skid) concerns me but considering the Boys are 1-6 ATS during that same time period, i'll bet the dog.  I'll wait til gametime to pull the trigger to see if i can get the hook.  SCORE: Cowboys 24 - Buccaneers 21. Loss - a team playing for something vs a team playing for nothing...lesson learned.

HOU -6.5 (1u) - if the public wasn't enamoured with Jesus out in Denver, they'd be Yatesowing instead of Tebowing. Rookie QB Yates' winning 4th qtr drives are not receiving national media attention, perhaps he needs to start praying to the Poker Gods… I'm not sayin…just sayin.  Houston's #1 defense (w/o Wade Phillips on the sideline) will be putting Cam & the Panthers to the test. SCORE: Panthers 17 - Texans 35

CLE Cle +7.5 (1u) -2 equally bad teams with QB issues, i'll take the points.  With McCoy out, i'll wait til gametime to get the higher number. SCORE: Browns 14 - Cardinals 18
GB -14.5 (2u) - The chiefs will be lucky to score 10 pts, their coach just got fired, they're 31st in pts/gm, 3rd stringer Orton will be at QB with a bum finger and if he falters, 4th stinger Stanzi will get the call. KC's hope for a backdoor cover seems dim....unless, of course McCarthy starts resting starters in preparation for the playoffs...just sayin.... SCORE: Packers 35 - Chiefs 10.

nyg -7.5 (1u) - bettin that the Skins are in a letdown mode after they left everything on the field in the Patriot game last week and coming up losers.  Even tho the gman are divisional foes, I see a let down. SCORE: Redskins 18 - Giants 28

CIN -6.5 (1.5 u)  Kellen Clemens will most likely start (signed only last week). The hapless Rams can't catch a break, they even lost out on the suck for Luck contest. SCORE: Bengals 24 - Rams 9

NE/DEN OVER 45.5

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 14, 2011 SPORTS PICKS

NCAAB ytd: 8-7-0 (+.95u)
UNLV -16.5 (.5u)

TUESDAY December 13, 2011 SPORTS PICKS

Wisconsin  -10 (.5u) loss
San Diego  +10 (.5u) **WINNER**
Oregon St  -16.5 (.5u) **WINNER**

TUESDAY DECEMBER 13, 2011 SPORTS PICKS

NCAAB 6-6-0 (+1u)
San Diego +10 (.5u)
Wisconsin -10 (.5u)

December 11, 2011 sports picks

YTD: NFL 45-44-2 (-6.73U)

HOU +3 (1u) -wrong team favored, HOU wins SU The Bengals: 1-5 vs. Quality Opponents with winning records.  Houston's record is 9-3..I'm just sayin… Texans strong play along the line of scrimmage and +12 turnover margin makes them the fav. SCORE Texans 24-Bengals 20

ATL -2.5 (1u) -The Falcon's #3 run defense should put the brakes on Cam Newton's1-dimensional attack.  SCORE: Falcons 27-Panthers 21

DAL -4.5 (1u) - embarrassed by clock management last week, i see the Boys coming out swinging at home. Score: Giants 24-Cowboys 30

OAK +11.5 (Leroy"s) (1u) - being short-stacked, I'm taking the least liked dog on the board for my tournament life (it was either Oakland or Indy), but also because the Pack D will keep the game close…ie, let the Raiders score within the number. Oakland is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season. Also i'm hopin the "clinched" playoff winners will ease up a little and start to heal their starters...at least in the 2nd half or 4th qtrs. I almost went with Arizona over Niners for that reason, but i'm goin all-in with da raiders. SCORE: Raiders 21-Packers 30

ARI +5 (1u) - let down spot for the niners altho they are playing for home field.

KC +10.5 (1u) - too many points to lay for Sanchez and the Jets, i'll go with the Chiefs to cover.

IND +16.5 (1u) - too many pts to lay by the Ravens.

CHI/DEN OVER 35.5 (1.5 units)

NCAAB 3-5-0 (-.7u)
Hawaii -10.5 (.5u)
E Washington +4 (1u)
New Mexico St -6 (1u)

LEROY'S CONTEST PICKS - PRO CHALLENGE - WEEK 14

IND +16.5
ATL -2.5
DAL -3.5
HOU +2.5
CHI/DEN OVER 35.5

current standing:    WINS WEEKLY LOSS      WINS  LOSS
ITSNOTMEITSU .      3               2                38        27
(tied for 7th with a bunch others)

december 10, 2011 sports picks

NCAAB 2-4-0 (-1.1u)
CS Northridge +8 (1u) - Pepperdine is 3-8 ATS vs Big West.
Toledo -6 (.5u)

NCAAF
Navy -7 (1.5u)
Army/Navy UNDEr 55.5 (1u)

WEEK 14 NFL LEANS

DAL -3.5
IND +16.5
ATL -2.5

OAK +11.5
HOU +2.5
CHI/DEN OVER 35.5

Friday December 9, 2011 Sports Picks

NCAAB 2-0-0 (+.9u)
Richmond +4 (.5u)
Florida -26 (.5u)
Colorado -5 (.5u)
Rider/FLO UNDER 154.5 (.5u)

Week 13 picks (and Leroy's Picks exc. Patriots) NFL

YTD: NFL 42-41-2 (-6.46U)
NE -20 (1unit) - Upon further review, i don't see the Colts scoring more than 12 points while the Pats will be at least in the 30s if not 40s.  I'm pulling the trigger on the Pats, especially after seeing the line come down to 20 not to mention Orlovsky at the helm for Colts in place of Painter.  SCORE: Colts 12 - Patriots 44.

BAL +6.5 (.5u) - three times this year, the Ravens have come off a big win and tossed a dud the following week, just ask the Titans, Jaguars, and lowly Seahawks.  Now comes a divisional foe to fill the same spot.  I'm bettin with Ray Lewis back, that they keep their swagger from last week's win. SCORE: Browns 6 - Ravens 18

SF -13 (1.5units) - the Rams have tanked it. St. Louis has a whopping 9 corner backs on IR since the beginning of the season. Smith should have a field day. My only concern is the niner scrubs in the 4th quarter allowing a backdoor cover....and hoping they don't have a let-down anti-swagger mojo going on after their defeat to Baltimore last week. I'm on life-support for this contest and my tournament life is in Harbough's/Smith's/Gore's hands. SCORE: Rams 9 - Forty-Niners 27

OAK/MIA Under 42.5 (1u) - playin Fins Under trend and their good rushing defense to keep the Raiders in check.

HOU +1 (1u) - Texans running game should help the 3rd string QB keep the game close, enough for SU win.  Falcons 17 - Texans 24.

DAL -4.5 (1u) - more of an anti-Cardinal play.  I'm smelling a blowout of epic proportions. Score Cowboys 33 - Cardinals 14

WEEK 13 LEans

week 13 leans:
Oak/Mia UNDER
NE
BAL
SF
dal
mia
den