NYJ +7.5: Colts didn't dominate the Ravens last week, Indy's offense didn't look good until the last few minutes in the first half. The score was 3-3 for almost the entire 1st half. Then their was only 3 points scored in the entire 2nd half. The Colts have the incentive to get the 'lay-down' game back, but the Jets may have the swagger and nothing-to-lose attitude or us-against-the-world attitude. The public is pounding the Colts to the tune of 60+%, and with good reason....a HOF QB in the home dome. The Colts have the revenge angle for the SU loss in their 'lay-down' game. I'll see if the line steams higher than 7.5 before i pull the trigger, but i'll take the Jets with the points as long as it stays above +7. Score. Jets 18-Colts 21 (3 units).
IND/NYJ UNDER 39: similar matchup as Baltimore last week, therefore betting the similar outcome.(1 unit)
NO -3.5: My early lean was the Vikes, but now i'm pulling the trigger on the Saints. If the Saints struggled with the Atlanta and Dallas, it may be a long day vs. Minnesota. Favre is better than Romo and Ryan. Peterson is better than Turner and Barber. Rice is better than Roddy and Austin. Percy is better than Felix, Crayton and Norwood. Jared Allen is on par with Ware and Abraham. The Vikes' only chance of winning SU will be to attack Brees' Achilles Heal, namely the Saints' defense. Running AP all day will help keep Brees off the field. The HFA was the determining factor for picking the Saints in a shoot out. Score: Vikings 24-Saints 33 (3 units).
MIN/NO OVER 52.5: Porous Saint D, Prolific Saint Offense and a good Viking Defense spells an OVER of epic proportions....well, at least 56 anyway (2 units)
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Friday, January 15, 2010
Divional Games - Jan 16-17, 2010
Playoff Record YTD: 0-8 (disgraceful)
May want to fade since i officially suck this year, but here goes:
SD -7:**GAMEDAY SWITCH I still think the better team is getting the points, at least on paper, Score: Jets 24-Chargers 21 (5 units). loss
SD/NYJ OVER: **GAMEDAY SWITCH** (4 units). loss
BAL +6.5: The 3-4 defense is kryptonite to Manning, especially in the playoffs. Check this out: in his 15 post season playoff games, he's 6-3 vs 4-3 defenses, while he's just 1-5 vs. 3-4 defenses. Rest or no rest, I'll fade Manning and the Colts at home vs. a hot Ravens-healthy-Ed-Reed team. Score: Ravens 21-Colts 18 (3 units). LOSS
DAL +3: the Boys have the momentum and Romo has the monkey off his back. I'd lay more units down if it weren't for Favre in the noisy home dome, but Dallas is the better team. I'll fade the rested and rusty team and take the points. The public may like Favre more and drive the line to 3.5, so wait till gametime to pull the trigger hoping to get the better number.
Score: Cowboys 28-Vikings 24 (5 units). loss
Dal/Min UNDER 45.5: i'll take the Dog with the big D. (4 units) **WINNER**
ARI +7: two prolific offenses and two porous defenses. I'll side with the hot Cardinals who have the better defensive hog index (10th ranked vs. 15th ranked)….I know it's not that big a difference, but with the TD spread, I'll take the points. Score: Cardinals 33-Saints 28 (4 units). LOSS
Ari/NO OVER 56.5: a tired Arizona team and rested Saint team at home, and remembering the barn burner last week, i'll bite... (1 unit). **WINNER**
May want to fade since i officially suck this year, but here goes:
SD -7:**GAMEDAY SWITCH I still think the better team is getting the points, at least on paper, Score: Jets 24-Chargers 21 (5 units). loss
SD/NYJ OVER: **GAMEDAY SWITCH** (4 units). loss
BAL +6.5: The 3-4 defense is kryptonite to Manning, especially in the playoffs. Check this out: in his 15 post season playoff games, he's 6-3 vs 4-3 defenses, while he's just 1-5 vs. 3-4 defenses. Rest or no rest, I'll fade Manning and the Colts at home vs. a hot Ravens-healthy-Ed-Reed team. Score: Ravens 21-Colts 18 (3 units). LOSS
DAL +3: the Boys have the momentum and Romo has the monkey off his back. I'd lay more units down if it weren't for Favre in the noisy home dome, but Dallas is the better team. I'll fade the rested and rusty team and take the points. The public may like Favre more and drive the line to 3.5, so wait till gametime to pull the trigger hoping to get the better number.
Score: Cowboys 28-Vikings 24 (5 units). loss
Dal/Min UNDER 45.5: i'll take the Dog with the big D. (4 units) **WINNER**
ARI +7: two prolific offenses and two porous defenses. I'll side with the hot Cardinals who have the better defensive hog index (10th ranked vs. 15th ranked)….I know it's not that big a difference, but with the TD spread, I'll take the points. Score: Cardinals 33-Saints 28 (4 units). LOSS
Ari/NO OVER 56.5: a tired Arizona team and rested Saint team at home, and remembering the barn burner last week, i'll bite... (1 unit). **WINNER**
Friday, January 8, 2010
WILDCARD WEEKEND 2010 - NFL Predictions
PHI +4: Philly seems to play better when everyone is against them. They lose when they're supposed to win and vice versa. While i think Romo is on fire and may win SU, he still hasn't won a playoff game. In the dust of the shut out, Vegas is giving out an extra point above the key number, i'll grab the points. Score: Eagles 24-Cowboys 18 (4 units).
PHI/DAL Under 45: offenses are explosive, but i'll take the running game to keep under the number. (3 units)
PHI ML +170: The Boys will be overconfident and the Eagle focused, especially after last week. I'll bite and go for the SU win. (3 units).
NE -3: OK, so I flip flopped twice so far, but now i pulled the trigger, i can't bet against the PATs at home. The Ravens are 3-4 ATS on the road while New England is 8-0 at home. In bad weather, Brady is the top cold-weather QB in the league. Because of the weather, i'll take the UNDER too. Score: Patriots 28-Ravens 10 (3 units on side and total)
GB +2.5: based solely on the Defensive Hog Index, it's been on a winning streak the past few years, who am i to argue against that trend. What scares me is that Arizona seen everything the Packers had to offer, while the Pack didn't see any tricks from Whisenhunt's sleep walking team. Why should Arizona show their hand before the playoffs? The public is remembering the blowout and is pounding the Pack to the tune of 90%. That's an immediate red flag for me. Also. how tiring is it to fly across the country 3 times in 7 days? I don't know, but that's what Green Bay will be doing.... i'm just sayin. Score: Packers 24-Cardinals 14 (3 units).
GB/ARI UNDER: Packer D will keep the Cardinal scoring low. The Cards have had 6-7 of their last games on the Under. (3 units).
CIN -2.5: line down to 2.5 from 4, time to pull the trigger. People are overreacting to Sunday night blow out, giving the Jets way too much credit when the Bungholes didn't even show up. Benson's, DT Peko and LE Geathers are back. Sanchez most likely be victimized in a hostile playoff atmosphere. I don't trust rookie Sanchez on the road for his first playoff game. A different speed and a different world than last week, so I think Bengals win. The Bengals have a tendency of playing down to their competition and have had troubles this last month. With C. Benson returning and 85 hobbling, it'll be a different team than last week. Score: Bengals 18-Jets 10 (5 units).
CIN/NYJ Under 34: Jet defense and cold weather.
PHI/DAL Under 45: offenses are explosive, but i'll take the running game to keep under the number. (3 units)
PHI ML +170: The Boys will be overconfident and the Eagle focused, especially after last week. I'll bite and go for the SU win. (3 units).
NE -3: OK, so I flip flopped twice so far, but now i pulled the trigger, i can't bet against the PATs at home. The Ravens are 3-4 ATS on the road while New England is 8-0 at home. In bad weather, Brady is the top cold-weather QB in the league. Because of the weather, i'll take the UNDER too. Score: Patriots 28-Ravens 10 (3 units on side and total)
GB +2.5: based solely on the Defensive Hog Index, it's been on a winning streak the past few years, who am i to argue against that trend. What scares me is that Arizona seen everything the Packers had to offer, while the Pack didn't see any tricks from Whisenhunt's sleep walking team. Why should Arizona show their hand before the playoffs? The public is remembering the blowout and is pounding the Pack to the tune of 90%. That's an immediate red flag for me. Also. how tiring is it to fly across the country 3 times in 7 days? I don't know, but that's what Green Bay will be doing.... i'm just sayin. Score: Packers 24-Cardinals 14 (3 units).
GB/ARI UNDER: Packer D will keep the Cardinal scoring low. The Cards have had 6-7 of their last games on the Under. (3 units).
CIN -2.5: line down to 2.5 from 4, time to pull the trigger. People are overreacting to Sunday night blow out, giving the Jets way too much credit when the Bungholes didn't even show up. Benson's, DT Peko and LE Geathers are back. Sanchez most likely be victimized in a hostile playoff atmosphere. I don't trust rookie Sanchez on the road for his first playoff game. A different speed and a different world than last week, so I think Bengals win. The Bengals have a tendency of playing down to their competition and have had troubles this last month. With C. Benson returning and 85 hobbling, it'll be a different team than last week. Score: Bengals 18-Jets 10 (5 units).
CIN/NYJ Under 34: Jet defense and cold weather.
Friday, January 1, 2010
Jan. 3, 2010 NFL PREDICTIONS
YTD: 98-92-1 (-28.3 units)
IND +8: the public play is to take the Bills knowing that the Colts will be laying down. But did you see the look on Peyton's face and the other starters last week. Body language said it all, they are pissed. The Bills lost Trent Edwards and backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing injured. Brian Brohm will most likely see some playing time, but neither is going to be effective. The Bills suck, scoring no more than 17 points just two times in the last 13 weeks. Starters or no starters, the Colts will win ATS. Score: Colts 24-Bills 12 (3 units). loser
NE +7.5: Belichick is known for NOT resting his starters. The line suggests otherwise. This isn't a lay-down team under Belichick, take the points. Score: Patriots 27-Texans 21 (5 units). **WINNER**
SF -7: The niners are clearly the better team, the question is can they cover a TD on the road. With the 3rd stringer QB Keith Null at the controls turning over the ball 12 times in three games, i smell a blow out of epic proportions. The Rams have a banged up RB Jackson and recently injured guards, not to mention the banished Incognito. The niners will not being laying down like Indy or some of the others, while the Rams have an incentive to lay down to get the #1 overall draft pick next year. Score: Forty-niners 24-Rams 10 (3 units). **WINNER**
MIA +3: The Steelers have lost to the likes of Cleveland, KC and Chicago on the road, the Fins are at least better than those teams. People are remembering them as the champions rather than the 3-10 ATS team of 2009. The wrong team is favored. Score: Dolphins 24-Steelers 21 (4 units). loser
NYG/MIN UNDER 47.5: Minnesota in the last 4 weeks, have scored 21 per game (17 or fewer twice). In the last game, the starters will most likely come out in the 4th qtr. The g-men, meanwhile, are 13-3 UNDER on the road when the total is 45 points. (4 units).loser
SD -3.5: Based on Norv's statement to keep his starters sharp (most likely seeing the fallout from Indy), I'll take the Bolts who are clearly the better team. The deadskins have scored 6 points per game the last two games and have tanked it for the season. Score: Chargers 33-Redskins 12 (5 units). loser
SEA +4.5: While the hawks have stunk it up this season, at home, they have played better (4-3 ATS..well not that much better). While they may not win, they should cover, the Titans only incentive is getting their RB 2,000 yards, running games usually are low scoring, Seattle does does not want to be remembered on highlight reels as the team Chris Johnson got his 2,000 yards. Everybody and his mother's uncle is on the Titans, like they already know what the score will be. Seahawks 21-Titans 24 (3 units). **WINNER**
KC +13.5: the Brandon Marshall tale will debacle the Broncos in their final game of the season. Division rivals getting DD points is always enticing. Denver needs the win and will be playing tight, while the Chiefs have nothing to lose and will be playing loose. Take the points. Score: Chiefs 18-Broncos 21 (5 units). **WINNER**
PHI/DAL UNDER 47.5: an intense rivalry spells big D on both sides. (5 units). **WINNER**
CIN +10: the line is reflecting the oddsmaker's expectation that the Bengal will lay down the final game to rest their starters. After listening to Ocho Cinco this week, i'll have to believe Cincy will come to play to win. Score: Bengals 27-Jets 28 (1 unit). loser
OAK +10.5: While the Ravens are the better team, they're in a win-and-in situation. As long as Jamarcus stays on the bench, the Raiders have a chance to keep it close. They've already beaten the Eagles, Bengals, Steelers and Broncos, and almost knocked off the Chargers twice. Score: Raiders 14-Ravens 21 (2 units). **WINNER**
IND +8: the public play is to take the Bills knowing that the Colts will be laying down. But did you see the look on Peyton's face and the other starters last week. Body language said it all, they are pissed. The Bills lost Trent Edwards and backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing injured. Brian Brohm will most likely see some playing time, but neither is going to be effective. The Bills suck, scoring no more than 17 points just two times in the last 13 weeks. Starters or no starters, the Colts will win ATS. Score: Colts 24-Bills 12 (3 units). loser
NE +7.5: Belichick is known for NOT resting his starters. The line suggests otherwise. This isn't a lay-down team under Belichick, take the points. Score: Patriots 27-Texans 21 (5 units). **WINNER**
SF -7: The niners are clearly the better team, the question is can they cover a TD on the road. With the 3rd stringer QB Keith Null at the controls turning over the ball 12 times in three games, i smell a blow out of epic proportions. The Rams have a banged up RB Jackson and recently injured guards, not to mention the banished Incognito. The niners will not being laying down like Indy or some of the others, while the Rams have an incentive to lay down to get the #1 overall draft pick next year. Score: Forty-niners 24-Rams 10 (3 units). **WINNER**
MIA +3: The Steelers have lost to the likes of Cleveland, KC and Chicago on the road, the Fins are at least better than those teams. People are remembering them as the champions rather than the 3-10 ATS team of 2009. The wrong team is favored. Score: Dolphins 24-Steelers 21 (4 units). loser
NYG/MIN UNDER 47.5: Minnesota in the last 4 weeks, have scored 21 per game (17 or fewer twice). In the last game, the starters will most likely come out in the 4th qtr. The g-men, meanwhile, are 13-3 UNDER on the road when the total is 45 points. (4 units).loser
SD -3.5: Based on Norv's statement to keep his starters sharp (most likely seeing the fallout from Indy), I'll take the Bolts who are clearly the better team. The deadskins have scored 6 points per game the last two games and have tanked it for the season. Score: Chargers 33-Redskins 12 (5 units). loser
SEA +4.5: While the hawks have stunk it up this season, at home, they have played better (4-3 ATS..well not that much better). While they may not win, they should cover, the Titans only incentive is getting their RB 2,000 yards, running games usually are low scoring, Seattle does does not want to be remembered on highlight reels as the team Chris Johnson got his 2,000 yards. Everybody and his mother's uncle is on the Titans, like they already know what the score will be. Seahawks 21-Titans 24 (3 units). **WINNER**
KC +13.5: the Brandon Marshall tale will debacle the Broncos in their final game of the season. Division rivals getting DD points is always enticing. Denver needs the win and will be playing tight, while the Chiefs have nothing to lose and will be playing loose. Take the points. Score: Chiefs 18-Broncos 21 (5 units). **WINNER**
PHI/DAL UNDER 47.5: an intense rivalry spells big D on both sides. (5 units). **WINNER**
CIN +10: the line is reflecting the oddsmaker's expectation that the Bengal will lay down the final game to rest their starters. After listening to Ocho Cinco this week, i'll have to believe Cincy will come to play to win. Score: Bengals 27-Jets 28 (1 unit). loser
OAK +10.5: While the Ravens are the better team, they're in a win-and-in situation. As long as Jamarcus stays on the bench, the Raiders have a chance to keep it close. They've already beaten the Eagles, Bengals, Steelers and Broncos, and almost knocked off the Chargers twice. Score: Raiders 14-Ravens 21 (2 units). **WINNER**
ADDED Bowl Games
ADDED GAMES
Jan. 1 (Rose) Oregon -4.5 loser
Jan. 1 (Sugar) Cincinnati +13 loser
Dec. 19 (New Mexico): Wyoming +13, wait for higher number if possible **WINNER**
**Dec. 23: Utah +4 ** **WINNER**
**Dec. 26: Ohio -2** LOSER
Dec. 26 (Meinke Car): Pittsburgh -3 - wait for line to drop further before pulling trigger LOSER altho line did drop to +1, i missed it.
Dec. 30 (Holiday): Nebraska +1 **WINNER**
Dec. 31 (Armed Forces): Air Force +4.5 **WINNER**
Dec. 31 (Sun): Stanford +8.5 **WINNER**
Jan. 1 (Gator): Florida St. +3 **WInner**
Jan. 2 (Papa John's): UConn +4.5 **WINNER**
Jan. 4 (Fiesta): Boise St. +7 **WInner**
Jan. 7 (BCS title): Texas +5 loser
8-4-0
i'm just sayin....
Jan. 1 (Rose) Oregon -4.5 loser
Jan. 1 (Sugar) Cincinnati +13 loser
Dec. 19 (New Mexico): Wyoming +13, wait for higher number if possible **WINNER**
**Dec. 23: Utah +4 ** **WINNER**
**Dec. 26: Ohio -2** LOSER
Dec. 26 (Meinke Car): Pittsburgh -3 - wait for line to drop further before pulling trigger LOSER altho line did drop to +1, i missed it.
Dec. 30 (Holiday): Nebraska +1 **WINNER**
Dec. 31 (Armed Forces): Air Force +4.5 **WINNER**
Dec. 31 (Sun): Stanford +8.5 **WINNER**
Jan. 1 (Gator): Florida St. +3 **WInner**
Jan. 2 (Papa John's): UConn +4.5 **WINNER**
Jan. 4 (Fiesta): Boise St. +7 **WInner**
Jan. 7 (BCS title): Texas +5 loser
8-4-0
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