User-agent: * Allow: / User-agent: Googlebot Allow: / Subscribe with Bloglines Gods, Barbarians, Wars & NFL Weekly Predictions: October 2010

Friday, October 29, 2010

oct 29th picks

NBA (ytd 1-1-0) -.09units
Boston -9 -110 (1unit) loss

NHL (2-2-0) 0units
Chicago ?? depending on the line NO PLAY too much juice (-234)
Anaheim -125 (1unit) loss
PHI/PIT OVER 6 (1unit) loss

0-2

NCAAF 6-8
WVA -5 loss
WVA/UCONN OVER 44 loss

0-2

Thursday, October 28, 2010

ADDED GAMES - OCTOBER 29, 2010

NHL (ytd:2-0-0) +1.5u
PHX/DET UNDER 5.5 (.5units) loss
Washington -120 (1unit) loss

0-2 (-1.5u)

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

week 8 NFL picks

week 8 NFL picks (ytd: 32-36-2) -9.08units
TEN +3.5 (4units): loser
 will wait til gametime to see if the public pushes the line to 4.

TEN/SD OVER 44 (2units): **WINNER**
 pts will fly over 44 to around 53 or so

pit +1 (3units): loser
the wrong team is favored. Fewer penalty yards (227-371) and fewer turnovers (8-14). The Ds are about equal, the steelers by 9. Myline is -10.2. Score: Steelers 24-Saints 18

TB +3: (3units) **WINNER**
The Buccs have fewer penalty yards than Arizona (277-371) and fewer turnovers so far this year (8-19). The time of possession also favors Tampa Bay, the D's are roughly the same, ill take the points and maybe SU. Score Buccaneers 24-Cardinals 16.

kc -7.5 (3unit): loser (what? are the Chiefs over rated or what?)
the Chiefs have fewer turnovers (4-6) and offense has greater time of possession average for the year so far. My line has it at around -13. Score Bills 18-Chiefs 34

stl -3 (3units): **WINNER**
greater time of possession behind with Bradford behind the helm. Score: Panthers 12-Rams 18

NE -7 (1unit): **WINNER**
lemme see. Farve playing hobbled or Tavares playing rusty, either way, I'll take a tough patriot team and perhaps look for a middle possibility. Score: Vikings 14-Patriots 35.

nyj -6 (1unit): loser
the rested jets off a bye vs. a busted up packer team, should've jumped on the opening number (-4.5). Score: Packers 14-Jets 28

DEN +1 (1 unit): loser (i wish i knew Troy Smith was the QB instead of the 2nd stringer, what's his name)
the wrong team is favored altho not by much. My line is +3.9 for Denver. The niners have the better D and may pull it off in London, but they're in a tail spin right now with a backup QB that shows little promise to right the sinking ship. Score: Broncos 24-Forty-Niners 21

Dal -6.5 (0units): loser (i did pull trigger on Jags at plus 6.5, but for purposes of this post will show a loss since i didn't changes it prior to gametime)
everything pointing to a Cowboy win, but if the line reaches 7, I'm on the Jags.

MIA +2.5 (2units): **WINNER**
the better D will win. The Fins have fewer penalty yards than Ciny (176-274) and their time of possession are about equal.. take the points.  Score: Dolphins 24- Bengals 21

HOU/IND OVER 49.5 (3units): pts will be in the 60pt range

sea +2 (1unit): loser
everyone's on the Raiders after their blowout win last week.  They're facing a stronger D this week. Score: Seahawks 21-Raiders 18

DET -2.5: (2units): **WINNER**
i don't care if they're only a 1-5 team, as long as they're a 5-1 ATS covering machine, i'll put my money on them. Score: Redskins 18-Lions 24

Getting my beak wet with these:
NBA (0-0-0)
Miami Heat PK -110 (1unit) loss
Phoenix/Portland UNDER 201 -110 (1unit) **WINNER**
1-1-0 (-.09u)

NHL (0-0-0)
Toronto Maple Leafs -160 (1.6units) **WINNER**
Buffalo/Philly OVER 5.5 +100 (.5units) **WINNER**
2-0 (1.5u)
I don't feel I have to wipe everybody out, Tom. Just my enemies.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

WEEK 7 NFL PICKS

WEEK 7 NFL PICKS
CLE +13 (1unit): **WINNER**
the score will be close, most likely decided by a FG. The saints are the better team but won't cover...IMHO. Score: Browns 17-Saints 20

ATL -3.5 (3UNITS): **WINNER**
slight advantage for Atlanta. my line as it at -4 with the better defensive HOG index number. Score: Falcons 27-Bengals 16

CIN/ATL OVER 42.5 (1unit) **WINNER**

PIT -3 (2UNITS): loser
Pit D and Big Ben's Offense favors Steelers. What scares me is the number of top cappers on MIA. Score: Steelers 24-Dolphins 12

STL +2.5 (3units): **WINNER**
the wrong team is favored, i'll side with the better D. Score: Rams 17-Buccaneers 14

BAL -13 (2units): loser
outmatched on the D.and Buffalo has tanked it for the season. Score: Bills 9-Ravens 36

SF/CAR UNDER 35.5 (1unit): loser
the win could go to either team, most likely determined by the turnover ratio. The Under seems the play for this game. Score: Forty-niners 21 - Panthers 9

SEA -5.5 (3units): **WINNER**
defense favors seahawks at home, fewer turnovers, few penalty yardage and my line has it at least -8. I like the 12th man vs. a rookie QB Score: Cardinals 17-Seahawks 27

ARI/SEA UNDER 40.5 (1unit): **WINNER**

NE +3 (2units): **WINNER**
shady line, but i'll take Brady and Bellicek. Key injuries for the bolts even tho they play better at home. Score: Patriots 42-Chargers 27

NE/SD OVER 47 (2units): loss
pts will fly over 60.

NYG/DAL OVER (1unit): **WINNER**
too close to call on win, but the total should fly over 44.5 nearing the 60 pt. range too

CHI -3 (3units): loser
The Bears were humiliated last week by the lowly seahawks, while the Skins suffered a tough loss last SNF vs the Colts. The public is pounding the Skins by 80%. Lemme see... the Bear defense is ranked 4 against the pass (PYPA-Statfox) and 5 against the run (3.5yds/carry). i see a Bear victory, Score: Bears 21-Redskins 14

SF -2 (2units): loser
would this be considered a swagger play? 5 losses in a row and then a win last week. I'm hoping so and if Crabtree, Davis, Smith and Gore show up to play, they should easily cover against the hapless Panthers, even if it is an early right coast game. Carolina is last in PPG @10.4 and a measly 6.7 for home games. What scares me is all the top cappers are on CAR. Score: Forty-niners 21-Panthers 9

OAK +9 (4units): **WINNER**
If Jamarcus Russell can beat the Broncos in Denver, i look for the Raiders to get up for this divisional rivalry with their current gun slinger. The defensive HOG index numbers are nearly identical, so the points look good right about now. I might wait to pull the trigger just before game time to see if the line rises to 10. Score: Raiders 18-Broncos 24

9-6 (+3.56units)

Saturday, October 16, 2010

ADDED PLAYS - TOTALS - WEEK 6

ADDED PLAYS - TOTALS

SD/STL OVER 44.5 (3UNITS) LOSER
DAL/MIN OVER 44.5 (2units) **WINNER**
IND/WAS OVER 44 (2units) **WINNER**
NYJ/DEN OVER 43 (2units) **WINNER**
TEN/JAC UNDER 45 (1unit) **WINNER**

SEA/CHI UNDER 37.5 (1unit) LOSER
PIT/CLE UNDER 37.5 (.5units) LOSER

WEEK 6, October 17, 2010 NFL PICKS

CLE +13.5 (2units)- LOSER
a lot of points for a rusty QB to lay in a divisional rivalry game. While the browns have noodle-arm McCoy at the helm, i'll side with the Browns who've been competitive in their games. The steeler defensive HOG index, Palamalu may win it for them SU, but i'll take the points. Myline was Pit by 6.5. Score: Browns 14- Steelers 21


ATL +3 (3units): LOSER
Mike Smith is 4-1 ATS coming off second-consecutive road games. Statfox Trend; teams coming off road victories of 1-3 points always struggle as home favorites. Score: Falcons 24-Eagles 17

BAL +3 - (1unit): PUSH
my line has them even, so i'll take the points. Their defensive HOG index is not that much better (14.7 vs 22), but the edge is still with the Ravens. Score: Ravens 24-Patriots 18.

KC +4.5 (2units): **WINNER**
Chiefs have fewer penalty yards, fewer turnovers, and twice as good defensive HOG index. My only misgiving is betting Cassell

SF -6.5 - (2units): **WINNER**
I flip flopped once already.  WHILE the whole niner team seems to be pressing to get a win, shooting themselves in the foot in the process, THEY ARE THE BETTER TEAM. It seems everyone and his mother's uncle are going against the 0-5 team, 58% anyway. The lines at -7 this Sat A.M. but i'll take it and the home team vs. cross-bay rival to cover. What sealed the deal on the switch was Jason Campbell being named QB

IND -3 (2units): **WINNER**
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS Away if total is 42.5 to 45. Washington wins have been against average teams, they've been beat in the stats, altho not the points. I doubt whether this formula will work vs. Manning & Co. They won't last in a shootout with Indy. Score: Colts 33-Redsins 21.

CHI -7 (1unit): LOSER
I'll go along with Seattle' poor road ATS record, especially outside of the lowly NFC West. I'll side with Julius Peppers and the Bears. Score: Bears 24-Seahawks 6
STL +9 (3units): i have the Bolts wining by 3, so i'll take the points.While San Diego may be the better team, St. Louis does play better at home while the Bolts seem to struggle on the road. So a team that lost to Kansas City, Seattle and Oakland is laying 9?? While the Rams were blown out by the Lions 44-6 last week, hence the big line. I'll take St. Louis at home with the pts. Score: Chargers 28-Rams 21

TB +4.5 (2units): LOSER
Bucs have fewer penalty yards than Saints, slightly fewer turnover (7-9), and better defensive HOG index numbers. Time of possession per game slightly favors the Saints but i'll take the points with a young/talented defense at home in division game.

JAC +3 (1unit) - home town team win on MNF, i like the UNDEr better.

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

EARLY PICKS WEEK 5 NFL

DEN +7 (3units): loser
In the past 3 weeks, Denver upset the Titans, blew out Seattle and outplayed the Colts in a loss (they had more 1st downs 23-18, and more passing yards 472-325). The Ravens may be in a let down mode after their win over Pittsburgh last week, i'm just sayin. Score: Broncos 21-Ravens 24.

KC +9 (1unit): loser
guess what the Chiefs have been hearing all week in the national media, that they're pretenders, the worst 3-0 team in history, how in the world can the CHIEFS of all teams be the only undefeated team left???  Since 2002, Indy is just 1-5 ATS as a favorite of -7 or more coming off a defeat. While the Colts may be the better team, i like the Chiefs in this spot with the points. If it wasn't for Cassel, i'd be betting more. Score: Chiefs 24-Colts 28,

ARI +6.5 (2units): **WINNER**
Lemme see, the Saint wins were by 5, 3, and 2 against a couple of scrub teams, Whisenhunt is pretty tuff at home, i wouldn't be surprised if they won SU. While the Cards maybe a scrub team too, i like them in this spot with the points. Cardinals 21-Saints 24.

PHI +3.5 (4units): **WINNER**
the public is pounding the niners, who are on a tail spin. Yeah they should've won several games SU, The line has been off for the niners all season long. The knee jerk reaction with Vick out & the niners nearly beating Atlanta makes this a good play....i'm just sayin.   Reid has a good ATS record West Coast and likes to be against the public.  My line was Phi +3.5, which makes me think the public perception is driving the line. Score: Eagles 33-Forty Niners 21.

TEN +250 (2units): **WINNER**
the Titan run game will be the key to this game. Some key injuries on Cowboy side, most notably Jason Witten will negatively impact their offense. This one has field goal game written all over it. Tennessee is good on defense (17ppg), not counting assistant coach Chuck Cecil's #1 gesture last week at the officials. The Titans perform better as underdogs (Vince Young is 15-4 ATS when they get 3 or more points, and 6-1 ATS when coming off a loss. And lastly, my faith in Jeff Fisher over Wade Phillips is greater in all games facing each other, i'm just saying. Score: Titans 28-Cowboys 24

BUF -1 (2units): LOSER
i like this game, consider this, the Jaguar just played their superbowl last week vs. the Colts and WON, while the Bills were torn apart by the Jets. The line has steamed from being a +1 underdog to a -1 favorite for the buffalo. I don't trust Gerrard to carry the Jags. A perfect time to pick the lowly Bills at home. I also like the UNDER 38 based on their latest trends. Score: Buffalo 21-Jaguars 17



Other Picks:
TB +6.5 (3units) **WINNER**
HOU -3 (3units) LOSER
OAK +6 (2units) **WINNER**
CLE +3 (2units) LOSER
WAS +2.5 (1unit) **WINNER**








NCAAF
California -7.5 **WINNER**
Nevada -39.5 LOSS
USC +10 **WINNER**
NAVY -4.5 LOSS
Boise St -39 **WINNER**
Temple +3 LOSS
Oregon St +7.5 **WINNER**
Ohio St -21.5 **WINNER**
N Texas +2.5 LOSS
5-4

PARLAY:
FLORIDA STATE +6.5 W
BAYLOR +2.5 L
MICHIGAN STATE +4.5 W
I'm going back to Minny

Friday, October 1, 2010

La MalagueƱa PACO RENTERIA

OCTOBER 1-3, 2010 SPORTS PICKS

NCAAF
BYU -3.5 loser
ARMY +5.5 loser
GA TECH -9.5 loser
KANSAS +8.5 loser
W.Michigan +2.5 loser
NAVY +9.5 **WINNER**
Notre Dame -2.5**WINNER**
ALABAMA -7.5 **WINNER**
IOWA -6.5 **WINNER**
WASHINGTON +9 **WINNER**
Boise State -42.5 **WINNER**
NEVADA -20.5 loser
Stanford +6.5 loser
Hawaii -7.5 **WINNER**
7-7

NFL - WEEK 4
PIT -1.5 (2units) loser
CLE +3 (1unit) **WINNER**
DET +14.5 (3units) **WINNER**
ATL -7 (1unit) loser
STL pk (.5units) **WINNER**
IND -7.5 (1unit) loser
HOU -3 (1unit) **WINNER**
SD -8 (1unit) **WINNER**
WAS +6 (5units) **WINNER**
CHI +4 (1unit) LOSER
MIA +1 (2units) LOSER
6-5