Jax -3.5: I suppose there's value in taking the Jaguars who are evenly matched. The Titans are on the skids and now have the illustrious Vince Young at the helm. Score: Jaguars 24 - Titans 18 (3 units).
Hou -3.5: Yes, i know the bills have won 2 in a row, but counting the win over the Panthers does not count. Shaub will not be gift wrapping any INTs. Score: Texans 21- Bills 16 (3 units).
MIN +3.5: Favre already beat his former team and the Vikes are the better team. The 'revenge' factor will not come into play, except to drive the public bets to Green Bay. Score: Vikings 24 - Packers 21 (2 units).
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Friday, October 30, 2009
WEEK 8 - NOV 1, 2009 NFL Weekly Predictions
You have to be insane to bet the browns, raiders, rams, redskins, bucs, chiefs, and panthers this year, unless you’re getting 20 points or more. Unless the teams they face are flat, the trend should continue the whole year.
CLE +14.5: I smell a blow out of epic proportions. But since the line moved past the key number of 14, I’ll buck the trend of the heavy favorites covering this year. If things haven’t gotten worse for the Brownies, they lost their star linebacker D’Qwell Jackson for the year. I’ll wait till gametime before I pull the trigger on this one, in case it steams higher. Score: Bears 23 – Browns 13 (2 units).
NYG +1: the Eagles lost to the lowly Raiders only two weeks ago and were not that impressive against the Skins last week. 14 of their points were on turnovers and if you takeaway both of DeSean Jacksons long TDs, the eagles had just 138 yards passing and rushing all versus the lowly Skins, I’ll take the g-men at home looking for redemption. Score: Giants 41 – Eagles 20 (4 units)
SF +13.5: I may pull the trigger on the Colts, with Peyton on fire and the average passing defense of SF, the game could be decided by halftime. On the other hand, the alex smith, vern davis and crabtree trio may be able to keep the niners within striking distance. The trio have no stats to plug into any system plays, so they’re the wildcard of the day. Score: Colts 28 – Forty-Niners 18 (1 unit)
MIA +3.5: the Fins have key injuries in their secondary with the loss of Will Allen for the season, they’re now starting 2 rookies at cornerback. With their demoralizing loss to the Saints last week after dominating them in the first half, the Fins may have left everything they had on the field as they face Sanchez and the Jets in the Meadowlands (the first road game for Henne in a hostile environment except for a brief appearance at San Diego in week 3 throwing a pic-six). Still I see the Wildcat dominating keeping Sanchez off the field. Both team are evenly matched, so I’ll take the Fins and points, even after their monumental collapse last week. Because both teams like to run, the UNDER may be the better play: Score: Jets 18 – Dolphins 21 (2 units).
NYJ/MIA Under 40.5 (2 units)
Det -4: battle of the heavy weights, two ugly teams, Offensive Coach Scott Linehan will be able to take advantage of the hapless lambs (he coached the Rams from 2006-2008). If Stafford is back, I’ll lay at least 1 unit on the Lions at Home. If it weren’t for Detroit’s lousy team, I’d be betting at least 4 units against the lambs. The Under may be the play of the day. Score: Lions 18 – Rams 6 (1 units).
DET/Stl UNDER 43.5 (2 units)
DEN +3.5: Again, the wrong team is favored. The public is remembering the vaunted Raven defense of past, but this year they’ve been allowing over 300 yds per game and over 21 points per game. The Broncos, on the other hand are holding opponents to 11 pts per game, I’ll side with Orton the Denver D. Score Broncos 24-Ravens 14 (3 units)
ARI -10.5: The Panthers are threatening to join the dregs of the league (Oak,KC,CLE,STL,DET & TB). Thanks to Delhomme, he’s averaging 3 turnovers/game, the cats didn’t reach 10 pts last week vs the Bills, Warner will be torching Carolina, Score: Cardinals 44-Panthers 9. (5 units)
SD -17.5: Can the Raiders still play with the big boys? Sure they have talent, but with Jamarcus at the helm and the front office taking the team down,..enuff said.. This is more of a play on the hapless Raiders rather than the Bolts at home. Score: Chargers 31 – Raiders 10 (3 units)
NO -10.5: Brees is 20-8 ATS off back-to-back wins, the opening line was -9, i'll side with the public square bet and collect the rectangular money on MNF. Brees will be torching the 19th ranked Falcon passing defense all nite. I like the OVER more, even if it is 54. Score: Saints 40 – Falcons 28 (3 units)
NO/ATL OVER 54.5: (2 units)
Leans – no play
JAX -3 (Titans 14-Jaguars 21)
HOU -3.5 (Texans 21-Bills 16)
MIN +3.5 (Packers 24-Vikings 21)
SEA +9.5 (Seahawks 24-Cowboys 21)
CLE +14.5: I smell a blow out of epic proportions. But since the line moved past the key number of 14, I’ll buck the trend of the heavy favorites covering this year. If things haven’t gotten worse for the Brownies, they lost their star linebacker D’Qwell Jackson for the year. I’ll wait till gametime before I pull the trigger on this one, in case it steams higher. Score: Bears 23 – Browns 13 (2 units).
NYG +1: the Eagles lost to the lowly Raiders only two weeks ago and were not that impressive against the Skins last week. 14 of their points were on turnovers and if you takeaway both of DeSean Jacksons long TDs, the eagles had just 138 yards passing and rushing all versus the lowly Skins, I’ll take the g-men at home looking for redemption. Score: Giants 41 – Eagles 20 (4 units)
SF +13.5: I may pull the trigger on the Colts, with Peyton on fire and the average passing defense of SF, the game could be decided by halftime. On the other hand, the alex smith, vern davis and crabtree trio may be able to keep the niners within striking distance. The trio have no stats to plug into any system plays, so they’re the wildcard of the day. Score: Colts 28 – Forty-Niners 18 (1 unit)
MIA +3.5: the Fins have key injuries in their secondary with the loss of Will Allen for the season, they’re now starting 2 rookies at cornerback. With their demoralizing loss to the Saints last week after dominating them in the first half, the Fins may have left everything they had on the field as they face Sanchez and the Jets in the Meadowlands (the first road game for Henne in a hostile environment except for a brief appearance at San Diego in week 3 throwing a pic-six). Still I see the Wildcat dominating keeping Sanchez off the field. Both team are evenly matched, so I’ll take the Fins and points, even after their monumental collapse last week. Because both teams like to run, the UNDER may be the better play: Score: Jets 18 – Dolphins 21 (2 units).
NYJ/MIA Under 40.5 (2 units)
Det -4: battle of the heavy weights, two ugly teams, Offensive Coach Scott Linehan will be able to take advantage of the hapless lambs (he coached the Rams from 2006-2008). If Stafford is back, I’ll lay at least 1 unit on the Lions at Home. If it weren’t for Detroit’s lousy team, I’d be betting at least 4 units against the lambs. The Under may be the play of the day. Score: Lions 18 – Rams 6 (1 units).
DET/Stl UNDER 43.5 (2 units)
DEN +3.5: Again, the wrong team is favored. The public is remembering the vaunted Raven defense of past, but this year they’ve been allowing over 300 yds per game and over 21 points per game. The Broncos, on the other hand are holding opponents to 11 pts per game, I’ll side with Orton the Denver D. Score Broncos 24-Ravens 14 (3 units)
ARI -10.5: The Panthers are threatening to join the dregs of the league (Oak,KC,CLE,STL,DET & TB). Thanks to Delhomme, he’s averaging 3 turnovers/game, the cats didn’t reach 10 pts last week vs the Bills, Warner will be torching Carolina, Score: Cardinals 44-Panthers 9. (5 units)
SD -17.5: Can the Raiders still play with the big boys? Sure they have talent, but with Jamarcus at the helm and the front office taking the team down,..enuff said.. This is more of a play on the hapless Raiders rather than the Bolts at home. Score: Chargers 31 – Raiders 10 (3 units)
NO -10.5: Brees is 20-8 ATS off back-to-back wins, the opening line was -9, i'll side with the public square bet and collect the rectangular money on MNF. Brees will be torching the 19th ranked Falcon passing defense all nite. I like the OVER more, even if it is 54. Score: Saints 40 – Falcons 28 (3 units)
NO/ATL OVER 54.5: (2 units)
Leans – no play
JAX -3 (Titans 14-Jaguars 21)
HOU -3.5 (Texans 21-Bills 16)
MIN +3.5 (Packers 24-Vikings 21)
SEA +9.5 (Seahawks 24-Cowboys 21)
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
NCAAF Sat games - Oct. 31, 2009
No record keeping and no write-ups
1 RUTGERS +7.5
5 CENTRAL MICHIGAN +5.5
41 GEORGIA +15.5
45 U.C.L.A. +9.5
79 SOUTH CAROLINA +5.5
81 SO.CALIFORNIA -2.5
77 WASH ST +27.5
ADDED GAMES - UPSET PICKS and not so UPSET picks:
N. Carolina +590 over Virginia Tech
Indiana +680 over Iowa
Vanderbilt +350 over Georgia Tech
Iowa St. +7
Kansas St. +28 - (Bradford out)
OSU +9
Wyoming +17
1 RUTGERS +7.5
5 CENTRAL MICHIGAN +5.5
41 GEORGIA +15.5
45 U.C.L.A. +9.5
79 SOUTH CAROLINA +5.5
81 SO.CALIFORNIA -2.5
77 WASH ST +27.5
ADDED GAMES - UPSET PICKS and not so UPSET picks:
N. Carolina +590 over Virginia Tech
Indiana +680 over Iowa
Vanderbilt +350 over Georgia Tech
Iowa St. +7
Kansas St. +28 - (Bradford out)
OSU +9
Wyoming +17
Monday, October 26, 2009
MNF Football Pick Oct. 26, 2009
WAS +9: Philadelphia will be looking to rebound off their dismal loss last week. The Skins will be playing for Jim Zorn's job (and the players do like the coach). This is a heated rivalry and play-calling will be by a Senior's Bingo Caller not as familiar with the players, which is why I'll stay with 1 unit only for the home dog: Score: Redskins 20 - Eagles 22. (1 unit)
WAS/PHI OVER 37.5: MNF trend on the Overs and Skins will be in desperation mode. (.5 units)
WAS/PHI OVER 37.5: MNF trend on the Overs and Skins will be in desperation mode. (.5 units)
Friday, October 23, 2009
ADDED GAmes OCT. 25, 2009 NFL PICKS
IND -13: Lemme see, shall I put my hard earned money on Manning or Bulger, the team that’s on a roll or the one that’s tanked it? The double digit home dog is scary, but 2-4 ATS does not mean they’ll cover…although this is the largest number of points the lambs will have gotten all season. If the line inches to the promised land of 14, I may take the dog, so I’ll wait for gametime to pull the trigger on this one, but for now I’ll take the favorite coming off a bye week: Score: Colts38 – Rams 6 (4 units).
IND/STL UNDER 45 (.5 units)
CHI +1: adding this game, probably just take on money line at anything over even money. Score: Bears 21- Bengals 14 (2 units)
OAK +6: a dog at home, Sanchez is looking worse each week, Jamarcus seemed to have been practicing lately, and even the pigeons are for the Raiders: score: Raiders 14 – Jets 10 (1 unit).
PHI -7: another play against the dredful Skins. The Eagles will be more focused after their embarrassment last week. Score: Eagles 27 - Redskins 10. (2 units)
SD/KC OVER 44 (1 unit)
Leans but no play:
Buf
SD
COLLEGE PLAYS TO CONSIDER OCT. 24, 2009 (PICKS CAPITALIZED):
FLORIDA ST. +2.5 vs. North Carolina (Thursday night...starting to see +3 -120, hope to get +3 flat)
CLEMSON +5 vs. Miami-Fla. (missed the best number, but still the right side...)
INDIANA +6.5 vs. Northwestern (still climbing, we might see 7)
KENT ST.. +10.5 vs. Ohio (line also inching up)
BUFFALO +5.5 vs. Western Michigan (another smaller conference game)
BOSTON COLLEGE +8 vs. Notre Dame (this opened at 10 here in NEVADA)
TENNESSEE +14.5 vs. Alabama (I like the play)
IDAHO +15 vs. Nevada (Idaho 7-0 ATS yet line has climbed from opener of 13)
TEMPLE+3 vs. Toledo (even up to 3.5 at some casinos)
ARKANSAS +6 vs. Mississippi (this line has been climbing, not sure why after Razorbacks went toe-to-toe with Florida)
SMU +17 vs. Houston (SMU playing well under June Jones and can stay competitive)
AUBURN +8 vs. LSU (which Auburn team will show up?)
OREGON ST. +21 vs. USC (certainly surprised this is 3 TDs)
IND/STL UNDER 45 (.5 units)
CHI +1: adding this game, probably just take on money line at anything over even money. Score: Bears 21- Bengals 14 (2 units)
OAK +6: a dog at home, Sanchez is looking worse each week, Jamarcus seemed to have been practicing lately, and even the pigeons are for the Raiders: score: Raiders 14 – Jets 10 (1 unit).
PHI -7: another play against the dredful Skins. The Eagles will be more focused after their embarrassment last week. Score: Eagles 27 - Redskins 10. (2 units)
SD/KC OVER 44 (1 unit)
Leans but no play:
Buf
SD
COLLEGE PLAYS TO CONSIDER OCT. 24, 2009 (PICKS CAPITALIZED):
FLORIDA ST. +2.5 vs. North Carolina (Thursday night...starting to see +3 -120, hope to get +3 flat)
CLEMSON +5 vs. Miami-Fla. (missed the best number, but still the right side...)
INDIANA +6.5 vs. Northwestern (still climbing, we might see 7)
KENT ST.. +10.5 vs. Ohio (line also inching up)
BUFFALO +5.5 vs. Western Michigan (another smaller conference game)
BOSTON COLLEGE +8 vs. Notre Dame (this opened at 10 here in NEVADA)
TENNESSEE +14.5 vs. Alabama (I like the play)
IDAHO +15 vs. Nevada (Idaho 7-0 ATS yet line has climbed from opener of 13)
TEMPLE+3 vs. Toledo (even up to 3.5 at some casinos)
ARKANSAS +6 vs. Mississippi (this line has been climbing, not sure why after Razorbacks went toe-to-toe with Florida)
SMU +17 vs. Houston (SMU playing well under June Jones and can stay competitive)
AUBURN +8 vs. LSU (which Auburn team will show up?)
OREGON ST. +21 vs. USC (certainly surprised this is 3 TDs)
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
NFL Free Picks - October 25, 2009
YTD 45-32 (+9.9 units)
SF +3: Crabtree had a great 2 week workout from all reports, Gore will be back, the niners are off a bye, the Texan win/loss record looks like this: W-L-W-L-W with SF next in line. I know that’s a poor trend to follow, but what the hey, who am I to argue with destiny?: Score: 49ers 28-Houston 18 (4 units).
MIN +4: as long as the line’s at 4, I’ll take the Vikes. The OVER may be the play on this one. Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS past 6 pre-bye weeks at home. Try to get + 4.5 but line is falling quickly. Plus 4 is acceptable. The two teams are about even so I’ll take the points with Minny: Vikings 21-Steelers 21 (1 unit)
ATL +4: hmmm, a publicly backed underdog. This almost feels like the last MNF, the overrated home team is favored over an under-rated away team. In my opinion the wrong team is favored. America’s Team is ranked 20th vs run/pass (and that’s vs. lowly Buccs,Panthers & Chiefs).: score: Falcons 33 – Cowboys 24 (2 units)
ATL/ UNDER 47 (1 unit)
MIA +7: While the Saints have already been penciled into the Super Bowl and the public is pounding them to the tune of 99%!!! (at 78% by Friday), the run-happy Fins will be able to run on New Orleans and at least keep it close. The Saints have not seen the Wildcat and the Fins are the only ones that can run it successfully. I’ll take the home dog with the points: score: Dolphins 28 – Saints 24 (5 units).
MIA/NO OVER 47 (1 unit)
Monday, October 19, 2009
Early Leans for OCT 25th, 2009
1 Unit
PATRIOTS (-14.5) at Buccaneers
COLTS (-13) at Rams
2 Units
VIKINGS (+4) at Steelers
EAGLES (-7) at Redskins
49ers (+3) at Houston
3 Units
PACKERS (-6.5) at Browns
SAINTS (-6.5) at Dolphins
Write-ups to follow by Friday or Saturday, i may change or add games, thanks.
MNF Oct. 19, 2009
In my opinion, the wrong team is favored, so something is up with Vegas. With the points given to a 5-0 team, they're beggin you to take the Broncos, therefore the Bolts would seem the play for tonite. And with the Bolts coming off a bye, it makes an SD team win most probable. But after saying that, i still like Denver's D and hot offense to cover easily.... but i'm wary on this one. I already pulled the trigger on the Broncos and the OVER, but now i'm having 'buyers remorse' as they say. My recommendation is, it'll be a coin flip.... ie..no play for the purposes of this blog. Go with your hunch on this one, my lean is with the Bolts & Under, sorry.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
MIght need to change your bets accordingly:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Week 6 weather report
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (-6, 36.5)
Because Washington’s games aren’t painful enough to stomach, we have been blessed with a 50 percent chance of showers and a 17 mph wind in The District on Sunday. Both teams have had their struggles passing the football and poor weather means lots of rushing, punting and minimal scoring.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-9.5, 36.5)
The Jets defense should have no problem teeing off against a Bills offense that must battle not only one of the most aggressive units in the NFL, but an 80 percent chance of showers with a troubling, 20 mph wind. New York rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez never faced weather conditions like these at Southern Cal.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-9, 40.5)
It’s just another dreary day in Massachusetts for the Patriots. The forecast calls for an 80 percent chance of rain with a strong, 21 mph wind. This is great news for the Titans, who will be without both starting cornerbacks and will look to pound the ball with LenDale White and Chris Johnson.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Week 6 weather report
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (-6, 36.5)
Because Washington’s games aren’t painful enough to stomach, we have been blessed with a 50 percent chance of showers and a 17 mph wind in The District on Sunday. Both teams have had their struggles passing the football and poor weather means lots of rushing, punting and minimal scoring.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-9.5, 36.5)
The Jets defense should have no problem teeing off against a Bills offense that must battle not only one of the most aggressive units in the NFL, but an 80 percent chance of showers with a troubling, 20 mph wind. New York rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez never faced weather conditions like these at Southern Cal.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-9, 40.5)
It’s just another dreary day in Massachusetts for the Patriots. The forecast calls for an 80 percent chance of rain with a strong, 21 mph wind. This is great news for the Titans, who will be without both starting cornerbacks and will look to pound the ball with LenDale White and Chris Johnson.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
WEEK 6 NFL PICKS - OCT. 18, 2009
Chiefs +6.5 vs. Redskins (wait to see if I can get 7): the skins have been having trouble scoring this year and that was against the likes of the Rams, Panthers, Buccs and mighty Lions averaging 14 pts. The Chiefs meanwhile beat the Cowboys last week ATS and now they’re getting points vs. the lowly Skins, I’ll take the Chiefs: Score Chiefs 16-Redskins 10. (3 units)
Texans +5 vs. Bengals (seeing +5.5s, so wait to see if steams off Cincy's big win). The public is pounding the Bungholes like they already know the score. Altho Cincy is the better team, the Texans are desperate for a win and may win outright: score: Texans 27-Bengals 24. (3 units)
Ravens +3 vs. Vikings (hoping to get -110 on the +3...will take money line regardless): this is not a strong play and i may lay off this game come game time. it could come down to who has the ball last. Score: Ravens 24-Vikings 21 (.5 units)
Giants +3 vs. Saints (holding out for +3.5 though will take +3 if that's all I can get by gametime) I see it coming down to the wire with two evenly matched teams, meaning the Giants cover with the points, score: Giants 36-Saints 31. (2 units)
JAX -9.5: It’s the season for laying points vs. really bad teams. Gerrard will have his #1 receiver Mike Sims-Walker back after a 1 game suspension and with Maurice Jones-Drew running the ball, the lambs don’t stand a chance. Score Jaguars 36-Rams 10. (4 units)
PIT -14: Willie Parker and Troy Polamalu are due back in the line up this week, and after watching the scrimmage between the Browns and Bills last week, how does anyone think the Brownies will stay within 2 TDs vs. the Steelers? Score: Steelers 36-Browns 3. (2 units)
SEA -3: the Hawks are money at home and with Hasselbeck back in the line-up, the Cards (who barely beat the Texans last week) are facing a fired up Seahawk team, Score Seahawks 33-Cardinals 21 (4 units)
NYJ -9.5: I smell a route of epic proportions. The Bills have tanked it for the season and the Jets with the Sanchez-Edwards attacking duo will be seeking redemption for their losses the past two games. Score: Jets 27-Bills 6. (3 units)
NE -9: Another case of betting against a bad team. The Titans are banged up and have tanked it for the season while the Patriots still have Brady-Welker duo. Score: Patriots 28-Titans 14 (5 units).
BUF/NYJ Under 37.5: (.5 units)
BAL/MIN OVER 43.5: (.5 units)
NYG/NOR OVER 47.5 (1 unit)
WAS/KC UNDER 37.5 (.5 units)
PIT/CLE UNDER 38.5 (.5 units)
Monday, October 12, 2009
EARLY NFL Pick for Oct.18, 2009
YTD: 37-24-0 (+17.7 units)PHI -14: I don't usually post this early, but the line will climb, grab the 14 now while its this low, it's already risen since yesterday. The Raiders will not cover, no matter if it reaches 20. Score: Eagles 38-Raiders 6.(3 units)
DET +13.5: Here's another early 'line=grabberr" as the line will most likely go down. The Packers may be the better team, but the Lions are playing with alot more heart than a year ago, look for them to cover: Score: Packers 28-Lions 20. (2 units)
MNF Oct. 12, 2009 - No Picks
There are no selections today in the NFL. In analyzing the games on the board, I don't like any enough to play them. Consider the following:
Everybody has been talking about Sanchez but the real story to me is the Jet D. They held the Saints offense to 10 points...the PROLIFIC Saint offense. Rookie mistakes by sanchez allowed the Saints D to outscore their prolific offense. this was the same line sent out most of the week last week with Buffalo the fave against the Fish. The Fish dominated that but hey this ain't Buffalo this is a much more heralded squad.
Rex Ryan will have a great game plan to defend the Fish's wildcat offense (as he did with the Ravens last year) and win this important AFC East match-up. Jets don't want to lose the game edge thay have on NE in their victory over them 2 weeks back. I think when all the dust settles Jets find themselves alone on top in the East after that upstart Bronco team win.
BUT ON THE OTHER HAND: the Fins are stronger than people think, Run Run Run- Ball Control Wins The Game For The Fins. They Shoulda Beat The Colts On A Monday Nite Game A Couple Weeks Ago-Colts Have Rolled Everybody since - The Fins need this game to stay in the division race- Jets Are 3-1 Miami 1-3- a win puts the phins back in It, a loss and its all but over
The Fish need a to win this game more and your getting points may be a good bet, or not, i see it as a coin flip, therefore no play.
With regard to the Totals, the run oriented teams usually are UNDER, buuuut this is MNF and the trend is OVER....so again no play. cya next week.
Everybody has been talking about Sanchez but the real story to me is the Jet D. They held the Saints offense to 10 points...the PROLIFIC Saint offense. Rookie mistakes by sanchez allowed the Saints D to outscore their prolific offense. this was the same line sent out most of the week last week with Buffalo the fave against the Fish. The Fish dominated that but hey this ain't Buffalo this is a much more heralded squad.
Rex Ryan will have a great game plan to defend the Fish's wildcat offense (as he did with the Ravens last year) and win this important AFC East match-up. Jets don't want to lose the game edge thay have on NE in their victory over them 2 weeks back. I think when all the dust settles Jets find themselves alone on top in the East after that upstart Bronco team win.
BUT ON THE OTHER HAND: the Fins are stronger than people think, Run Run Run- Ball Control Wins The Game For The Fins. They Shoulda Beat The Colts On A Monday Nite Game A Couple Weeks Ago-Colts Have Rolled Everybody since - The Fins need this game to stay in the division race- Jets Are 3-1 Miami 1-3- a win puts the phins back in It, a loss and its all but over
The Fish need a to win this game more and your getting points may be a good bet, or not, i see it as a coin flip, therefore no play.
With regard to the Totals, the run oriented teams usually are UNDER, buuuut this is MNF and the trend is OVER....so again no play. cya next week.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
ADDED GAMES Oct. 11, 2009 Free NFL Predictions
OAK +15: There is no doubt that the G-men are a way better team. But laying more than two TDs in an NFL game? It only takes one interception or fumble or punt return for Oakland to make this a difficult number for the NYG to cover, especially with a gimpy Manning. Even though Jamarcus Russell makes it really hard to make this pick, i'll go with the double digit dogs. (2 units)
DET +10.5: Last year, the Lions were money with double digit spreads, even tho they were the worst team in the league. Now, they're better than last year, while the Steelers were the best team last year. This year, the steelmen are showing alot of mortality without Troy. Even without Stafford Culpepper should make th cover. (2 unis)
HOU +5: the score should be around 24 to 21, with the Texans easily covering. (1 unit)
WAS/CAR Under 37.5 (1 unit)
Den/NE Under 40.5 (.5 units)
DET +10.5: Last year, the Lions were money with double digit spreads, even tho they were the worst team in the league. Now, they're better than last year, while the Steelers were the best team last year. This year, the steelmen are showing alot of mortality without Troy. Even without Stafford Culpepper should make th cover. (2 unis)
HOU +5: the score should be around 24 to 21, with the Texans easily covering. (1 unit)
WAS/CAR Under 37.5 (1 unit)
Den/NE Under 40.5 (.5 units)
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Oct. 11, 2009 Free NFL Predictions
YTD: 30-19-0 (+12.1 units)
Early posting this week: since i'll be away from the computer until Sat or Sun morning, i'll post tonite. The positive to this is that i'm going with my first hunches, the negative is that i won't have more time to analyze the stats and talk. First hunches are sometimes better since you don't 'overthink' the plays. Anyway, here goes:
MIN -9.5: another play against the lowly Rams. I smell another blow out of epic proportions. The scary thing is the DD home dog not to mention that everybody and his mother is on the Vikes…. Usually a good time to fade em… but Score: Vikings 27-Rams 3. (2 units)
DEN +3: DEN will win, nobody takes them seriously, the public is pounding the PATs; Denver's head coach was the offensive Coord. for NE, Denver has the momentum, Vegas would love more bets on the PATs, while NE isperceived to be the better team i like the Broncos in this spot: Score: Broncos 24-Patriots 18. (5 units)
SF -2.5: I don’t really understand the love for the Falcons, seems like a case of overrated vs. underated to me. This is a statement game for the niners. Nov 1st will be the better test of the SF defense vs. the Colts, for now, their D will carry them past Atlanta. Master motivator Singletary reminded the 49ers at halftime that Candlestick Park was their house and to play like it. The result was 28 points in the second half (i know it was against the hapless Rams), so i'll ride the train till the wheels fall off; score: 49ers 24-Falcons 13 (3 units)
SF/ATL UNDER (.5 units)
CAR -3.5: Fading the Redskins has been money this year. The Skins lost to the Lions, barely beat the hapless Rams, and last week almost lost to the tanking Bucs. Carolina is stinking up the league too, but at least they lost to quality teams, but coming off a bye, their only stumbling block has been Delhomme’s turnovers; since they’re playing at home they should win; score: Panthers 17-Redskins 6 (2 units)
CIN +9: The public is pounding the Ravens to the tune of 60%. I may wait till kickoff to see if the line moves up to 10. The Bengals like to play it close, whether its against the lowly Browns or the quality teams in the likes of the Steelers or Broncos, Cincy likes to make it interesting, so take the points; Score: Bengals 21-Ravens 18 (3 units)
IND -3.5: I’ll side with the public on this one, Peyton in prime time has been money while the Titans have tanked it for the season. Score: Colts 28-Titans 18 (2 units)
Leans:
NYG -15: keep an eye on Manning’s foot injury & weather, may make a play come gameday.
PHI -14.5: Score 38-0, may put some on gameday here too, but will monitor McNabb/Westbrook’s status this week and also line movement.. Under 14 will be a definite play on Philly.
Early posting this week: since i'll be away from the computer until Sat or Sun morning, i'll post tonite. The positive to this is that i'm going with my first hunches, the negative is that i won't have more time to analyze the stats and talk. First hunches are sometimes better since you don't 'overthink' the plays. Anyway, here goes:
MIN -9.5: another play against the lowly Rams. I smell another blow out of epic proportions. The scary thing is the DD home dog not to mention that everybody and his mother is on the Vikes…. Usually a good time to fade em… but Score: Vikings 27-Rams 3. (2 units)
DEN +3: DEN will win, nobody takes them seriously, the public is pounding the PATs; Denver's head coach was the offensive Coord. for NE, Denver has the momentum, Vegas would love more bets on the PATs, while NE isperceived to be the better team i like the Broncos in this spot: Score: Broncos 24-Patriots 18. (5 units)
SF -2.5: I don’t really understand the love for the Falcons, seems like a case of overrated vs. underated to me. This is a statement game for the niners. Nov 1st will be the better test of the SF defense vs. the Colts, for now, their D will carry them past Atlanta. Master motivator Singletary reminded the 49ers at halftime that Candlestick Park was their house and to play like it. The result was 28 points in the second half (i know it was against the hapless Rams), so i'll ride the train till the wheels fall off; score: 49ers 24-Falcons 13 (3 units)
SF/ATL UNDER (.5 units)
CAR -3.5: Fading the Redskins has been money this year. The Skins lost to the Lions, barely beat the hapless Rams, and last week almost lost to the tanking Bucs. Carolina is stinking up the league too, but at least they lost to quality teams, but coming off a bye, their only stumbling block has been Delhomme’s turnovers; since they’re playing at home they should win; score: Panthers 17-Redskins 6 (2 units)
CIN +9: The public is pounding the Ravens to the tune of 60%. I may wait till kickoff to see if the line moves up to 10. The Bengals like to play it close, whether its against the lowly Browns or the quality teams in the likes of the Steelers or Broncos, Cincy likes to make it interesting, so take the points; Score: Bengals 21-Ravens 18 (3 units)
IND -3.5: I’ll side with the public on this one, Peyton in prime time has been money while the Titans have tanked it for the season. Score: Colts 28-Titans 18 (2 units)
Leans:
NYG -15: keep an eye on Manning’s foot injury & weather, may make a play come gameday.
PHI -14.5: Score 38-0, may put some on gameday here too, but will monitor McNabb/Westbrook’s status this week and also line movement.. Under 14 will be a definite play on Philly.
Monday, October 5, 2009
MNF Oct. 5, 2009
YTD: 29-19 (+11.2 units)
MIN -4: The Pack O-line will be their downfall, although the Vikes won't dominate, they're on a roll right now. Don't risk alot on this one. Score: Vikings 27-Packers 21 (1 unit)
MIN -4: The Pack O-line will be their downfall, although the Vikes won't dominate, they're on a roll right now. Don't risk alot on this one. Score: Vikings 27-Packers 21 (1 unit)
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Oct. 4, 2009 NFL WEEKLY PICKS
YTD: 21-16 (0 UNITS)
From now on I’ll start rating the plays on a 1 to 5 unit scale. I should’ve started from day one, but for now the units will start at 0:
CIN -5.5: the Browns have tanked it for the season and the Bengals are on a roll. Derek Anderson will be an improvement and home dogs are usually scary, but I won’t fall for them like I did last week. Score: Bengals 16-Browns 6 (4 units)
BAL +2: I’d recommend ML bet on this one. Although the Pats and Brady are improving each week, he still looks banged up. With a newly found offense, the Ravens will win this one outright. If the line stays below a FG, the Ravens will be on a million teasers. Score: Ravens 27-Patriots 20 (3 units)
SD +6.5 or PIT: the Bolts will be in playoff revenge mode against a reeling Troyless Steeler team. In the power rankings, the Steelers and Bolts are 7 & 8 respectively, ie, almost even and yet San Diego gets the points. What scares me are the Bolt injuries. Wait til the line hits 7 or more for the BOLT bet. If the line stays at 6.5 or less, go with the Steelers. Score: Steelers 20-Chargers 14 (2 units)
SF -9/5: after a bad-beat close call game last year vs Arizona, the niners under Singletary came home and took their anger out on their next opponent 35 to 16. It was against none other than the Rams. Last week's bad beat against the Vikes will be redeemed by the same patsies of last year in another blow out. (I wish i was playing these on Leroy's 3-n-out, i'm 2-1 there) Score: 49ers 27-Rams 10 (4 units)
TB +9: the Skins haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game this year. They didn’t show up against an 0-19 team last week and barely beat a 0-13 team several weeks ago, and yet they’re laying 9 points? What-what? Both teams are lousy, but getting that many points, I’ll take the Buccs. Buccaneers 16 – Washington 10 (1 unit)
IND -10.5: Peyton will wreak havoc on the Seahawk secondary. West coast teams going east, Seneca Wallace at the helm, I smell a blow out of epic proportions. Colts 30 – Seahawks 10 (4 units)
DEN +3: everyone is saying the Bronco record is a fluke (including myself) but I think the real overrated team are the Boys. Their defense will be torched….how did Dallas earn the position as a 3 point favorite….beating the lousy Buccs, squeeking by the tanking Panthers, teams that are a combined 0-6, hmmm, the line may be backward here, go with the Broncs. Cowboys 14-Broncos 24 (5 units)
NYG -9: A huge mismatch game, the g-men should win this one and cover. If it wasn’t 3 road games in a row, I might try higher units but for now: Giants 31-Chiefs 3 (2 units)
DEN/DAL Under 42: (.5 units)
NO -7: The public is in love with Brees and the Saints, and for good reason, the high flying offense will outscore the good Jet defense. Jets14-Saints 34 (2 units)
OAK/HOU Over 42.5: (.5 units)
Try this little Money Line parlay for value:
Baltimore Ravens +110 ML (2 Units)
Denver Broncos +130 ML (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins +110 ML (2 Units)
From now on I’ll start rating the plays on a 1 to 5 unit scale. I should’ve started from day one, but for now the units will start at 0:
CIN -5.5: the Browns have tanked it for the season and the Bengals are on a roll. Derek Anderson will be an improvement and home dogs are usually scary, but I won’t fall for them like I did last week. Score: Bengals 16-Browns 6 (4 units)
BAL +2: I’d recommend ML bet on this one. Although the Pats and Brady are improving each week, he still looks banged up. With a newly found offense, the Ravens will win this one outright. If the line stays below a FG, the Ravens will be on a million teasers. Score: Ravens 27-Patriots 20 (3 units)
SD +6.5 or PIT: the Bolts will be in playoff revenge mode against a reeling Troyless Steeler team. In the power rankings, the Steelers and Bolts are 7 & 8 respectively, ie, almost even and yet San Diego gets the points. What scares me are the Bolt injuries. Wait til the line hits 7 or more for the BOLT bet. If the line stays at 6.5 or less, go with the Steelers. Score: Steelers 20-Chargers 14 (2 units)
SF -9/5: after a bad-beat close call game last year vs Arizona, the niners under Singletary came home and took their anger out on their next opponent 35 to 16. It was against none other than the Rams. Last week's bad beat against the Vikes will be redeemed by the same patsies of last year in another blow out. (I wish i was playing these on Leroy's 3-n-out, i'm 2-1 there) Score: 49ers 27-Rams 10 (4 units)
TB +9: the Skins haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game this year. They didn’t show up against an 0-19 team last week and barely beat a 0-13 team several weeks ago, and yet they’re laying 9 points? What-what? Both teams are lousy, but getting that many points, I’ll take the Buccs. Buccaneers 16 – Washington 10 (1 unit)
IND -10.5: Peyton will wreak havoc on the Seahawk secondary. West coast teams going east, Seneca Wallace at the helm, I smell a blow out of epic proportions. Colts 30 – Seahawks 10 (4 units)
DEN +3: everyone is saying the Bronco record is a fluke (including myself) but I think the real overrated team are the Boys. Their defense will be torched….how did Dallas earn the position as a 3 point favorite….beating the lousy Buccs, squeeking by the tanking Panthers, teams that are a combined 0-6, hmmm, the line may be backward here, go with the Broncs. Cowboys 14-Broncos 24 (5 units)
NYG -9: A huge mismatch game, the g-men should win this one and cover. If it wasn’t 3 road games in a row, I might try higher units but for now: Giants 31-Chiefs 3 (2 units)
DEN/DAL Under 42: (.5 units)
NO -7: The public is in love with Brees and the Saints, and for good reason, the high flying offense will outscore the good Jet defense. Jets14-Saints 34 (2 units)
OAK/HOU Over 42.5: (.5 units)
Try this little Money Line parlay for value:
Baltimore Ravens +110 ML (2 Units)
Denver Broncos +130 ML (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins +110 ML (2 Units)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
